Most of the grain markets were closed on Friday due to Easter holidays.
European and Aussie markets staied closed also yesterday.
Meantime, however, before the long weekend, last Thursday commodity funds has been net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-3,500) soybeans (-8,000), soymeal (-8,000), soyoil (-2,000) and CBOT wheat (-7,000).
In this context, grain prices were once again mixed to start the week.
Bullish supply fundamentals kept soybeans on an upward trend, adding almost 0.75% on a round of technical buying.
Most wheat contracts also moved higher, boosted by a better-than-expected round of export inspections and a large sale to unknown destinations.
Corn continues to struggle in the short term, however, losing around 1.25% on the heels of another round of technical selling.
Also energy futures tilted significantly lower, with crude oil down more than 4.5% this afternoon to fall below $59 per barrel after OPEC revealed it will slowly increase output moving forward.
Diesel dropped 3% lower, with gasoline falling around 2.75%.
On the financial hand, investors has been more optimistic, particulary about nonfarm payrolls data, which showed an extra 916,000 jobs in March – the best monthly performance since last August.
Meantime, the steady rate of coronavirus vaccinations encouraging more for a economic recovery.
So, on Wall St., the Dow boosted another 373 points higher to reach a new record of 33,527.
Going back to talking about grain markets, the regular US export inspections were pubblished yesterday, that have seen another massive week of corn at 1.9 million tonnes, including a large amount of Chinese business, but also over 450,000t of Mexican shipments, pushing absolute numbers up there and adding further pressure to the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates to increase export figures.
Wheat export inspections improved considerably week-over-week, climbing 94% to reach at 594,000t.
The USDA yesterday posted also its first US crop rating after the vegetative restart for its winter wheats at 53% as good to excellent, that were within the range of traders’ expectations.
Last year to date, the crop rating of winter wheats stood at 62%.
Yesterday, we also saw a wheat export sales flash with 130,000t of new-crop Soft Red Winter wheat reported to unknown, for delivery during 2021/2022 MY.
Sorghum export inspections was at 165,000t; the quantity was all for China.
On the contrary, soybean export inspections were relatively disappointing, sliding 32% lower and reaching to 300,000t, even if about as expected, as demand continues to move more and more toward the South America.
Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean harvest, indeed, is now 78% complete through last Thursday, according to consultancy AgRural.
That’s a bit behind last year’s pace of 83%, however, most analysts are still expecting a record-breaking crop of around 4.8 billion to 5.0 billion bushels this year.
AgRural’s latest production estimate is for 4.887 billion bushels, for example.
This was also the first week of US crop progress, and condition figures nationally.
They peg corn at 2 per cent planted and sorghum at 14pc, both about average.
Spring wheat planting at 3pc nationally is believed to be slightly understated after the recent weather.
However, even if the sowing of corn in the southernmost states of the USA is beginning, the weather in Brazil holds the most attention of operators with a water deficit that persists in many regions.
Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop, indeed, remains an ongoing question, with some recent downgrades in estimates being reported, and drier forecasts across the safrinha areas on the two-week models.
Looking to the old continent, also european market had closed last week by giving up most of the gains acquired, as volatility remains the watchword of this campaign.
Main concern for this week, could be the negative temperatures will appear in part of Europe and in particular in France with the risk of frost damage, in particular on oilseed rape.
However, FranceAgrimer’s wheat condition continue to 87% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week.
Winter barley saw its crop rating drop by one point to 84%.
From Black Sea basin, spring is slow to materialize with temperatures that remain cool compared to seasonal norms.
Around 25 millimetres of rain is forecast across much of the Russian winter wheat belt in this week’s weather maps.
In Ukraine, sowing delay already amounts to 2 week.
According to the authorities, sat the end of last week, spring barley sowings was only 200,000 ha against around 600,000 ha last year to date and up to 1,000,000 ha in an early year.
On the other hand, according to the APK-Inform, Ukrainian corn exports are down about 25% so far during the first half of the 2020/21 marketing season, with 626 million bushels since last October.
China has been the primary buyer, with 236.2 million bushels, followed by the European Union, Egypt and unknown destinations.
Also Russia’s SovEcon consultancy expects the country’s wheat exports to fall to a marketing-year low of 33.9 million bushels in March.
Totals so far for the 2020/21 marketing year are now estimated at 1.231 billion bushels since last July.
In this context, most all Black Sea prices were at a fair discount during past five weeks even if corn prices invert trend this week.
Aussie markets are slow to the start of the week after the holidays.
Improved chances of rain are building for the Western Australian wheatbelt into this weekend, and falls of 15-20mm or more forecast in the latest models.
On the international trade scenario, the Egyptian GASC tender reported late last week is set for tonight, and GASC has been talking down its needs and upping local supplies pre-tender.
These are loads between August 1 and August 10.
Saudi Arabia’s SAGO wheat tender for old-crop saw it buy five boats of hard wheat, for a total of 295.000t at around $271/t cost and freight, all reportedly sold by Casillo, and therefore likely to be mostly EU wheat.
The grain is for delivery in May and June.
We will also note a new call for tender from Algeria in wheat.
The response is for tomorrow Wednesday.
The ports of destination for Algeria are of small capacity, suggesting a limited volume for this tender.
Tonight we will see how they will close the sessions
