US farm markets continued to push higher yesterday.
Rainy weather in the Corn Belt could cause planting delays in corn and soybean.
Meanwhile, drought in the Plains is keepping the winter wheat crop in jeopardy.
As a result, corn prices jumped above $8 per bushel for the first time since 2012 on gains more then of 2.9% for the session.
Soybeans rose near 2%.
Soymeal ended the day 1% higher.
Soy oil rallied 1.37%.
The wheat complex gained in all three markets with May Chicago SRW wheat prices gained 2.19%, May Kansas City HRW wheat prices rose 2.69%.
May MGEX spring wheat prices climbed 2.66%.
In energy markets, oil prices see-sawed on Tuesday.
Brent crude, indeed, was down 26 cents, or 0.23%, to $112.90 a barrel at 06:43 GMT, after rising more than $1 to $114.21 earlier in the session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.42%, to $107.76 a barrel, after rising to $108.92 earlier..
Prices came under pressure with the dollar trading at a fresh two-year high.
A stronger dollar hurts oil buyers holding other currencies.
Also, US crude inventories rose by 9.4 million barrels in the week to April 8 to 421.8 million barrels, against analysts’ hopes for an 863,000-barrel rise.
Investors, however, fretted over tight global supplies after Libya halted some exports and factories in Shanghai prepared to reopen.
Both benchmark contracts, indeed, gained more than 1% in the previous session after hitting their highest since March 28.
The political crisis in Libya, has put country could not deliver oil from its biggest oil field.
Also it has shut another field due to political protests.
“Market sentiment was also supported by the Russian minister saying more countries banning Russian oil imports would mean oil prices exceeding historic highs”.
In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Monday fluctuated between moderate gains and losses the entire day and settled mixed.
Higher T-note yields were bearish after the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 3-1/4 year high of 2.88%.
Higher yields put downward pressure on all kinds of investments, from gold to cryptocurrencies, and the stocks seen as the most expensive, such as those in technology companies, tend to get hit hardest.
Twitter, however, jumped 7.5% in its first trading session since the company announced a plan to make it more difficult for someone to amass a stake more than a 15%.
Global economic concerns also weighed on stocks after the World Bank cut its 2022 global GDP growth estimate to 3.2% from a January estimate of 4.1% due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In addition, pandemic lockdowns in China were bearish for global growth prospects after China’s March retail sales fell -3.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.0% y/y and the largest decline in nearly two years.
However, China’s March industrial production report rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.0% y/y and the biggest increase in 7 months.
Also, China’s Q1 GDP report of +1.3% q/q, down from 1.4% in the previous quarter, but the +4.8% y/y was stronger than expectations of +0.7% q/q and +4.2% y/y.
A rally of more than +1% in WTI crude oil Monday to a 3-week high and a +7% surge in natural gas prices to a 13-1/2 year high was bullish for energy stocks and the overall market.
Counterbalancing there were also some better-than-expected profit reports.
Bank of America, indeed, rose 3.4%.
Better-than-expected quarterly earnings results, there were also for Synchrony Financial.
The U.S. Apr NAHB housing market index fell -2 to a 7-month low of 77, right on analysts expectations.
In this context, the S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% to 4,391.69.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% to 34,411.69 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.1% to 13,332.36.
Smaller stocks also faltered, with the Russell 2000 index finishing down 0.7% at 1,990.13.
Meantime, shares were mostly higher in Asia on Tuesday despite growing worries over the risks of recession as prices push sharply higher while economies are still recovering from the impact of the pandemic.
Also, China’s central bank moved to provide more support for its slowing economy.
The People’s Bank of China, indeed, conducted a 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) reverse repo operation to help add liquidity to the banking system, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
In a reverse repo, the central bank buys securities from commercial banks with an agreement to sell them back in the future.
In addition, the central bank, through a banking industry association, encouraged smaller lenders to reduce the interest they offer on deposits to alleviate pressure on their finances, the financial magazine Caixin reported.
On Friday the PBOC, indeed, reduced the amount of reserves banks have to keep, to free up more money for lending.
However, Hong Kong declined, weighed down by worries over Chinese property developers and regulatory crackdowns on technology companies.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, indeed, declined 2.2% to 21,058.78.
The Shanghai Composite index also lost a bit, but less than 0.1% to 3,194.03.
However, most other regional markets advanced.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7% to 26,985.09 and the Kospi in Seoul added 1% to 2,718.89.
In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.6% to 7,565.20.
India’s Sensex climbed 0.2% and Bangkok’s SET jumped 0.7%.
In currency dealings, the dollar briefly topped 128 yen and was trading at 127.86 yen late Tuesday, from 126.99 yen previus session.
The dollar has risen sharply against the yen, as a consequence of a divergence in monetary policies of the Bank of Japan, which is keeping interest rates low to nurse along the faltering economy.
However, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, on Tuesday reiterated his concern over the yen’s weakening against the U.S. dollar.
A weaker yen makes Japanese exports more competitive overseas and enhances yen-denominated profits of companies when they convert them from dollars, but it also raises costs for imports of oil and gas, food, manufacturing inputs and other necessities for the world’s third-largest economy.
It has been hovering at 20-year highs for weeks.
The euro slipped to $1.0778 from $1.0781.
The dollar index on Monday rose by +0.285 (+0.28%) and posted a new 1-3/4 year high.
On the weather side, most of the Corn Belt will see measurable moisture between today and Friday, but few areas will gather more than 0.5”, according to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.
The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook near-normal precipitation amounts for most of the central U.S. between April 25 and May 1, with seasonally cool weather likely for the northern third of the country as the month winds down.
On the supply side, the USDA released its third Crop Progress report Monday afternoon.
These reports run weekly through the end of November, and look at the progress and condition of various crops on a national and state-by-state scale.
As of Sunday, the report pegged corn planted at 4%, compared to 6% for the previous five-year average.
The report pegged soybeans planted at 1%, compared to 2% for the previous five-year average.
Spring wheat planted was reported at 8% compared with 9% for the prior five-year average.
Winter wheat came in at 7% vs. the 12% five-year average.
Winter wheat condition was 30% good/excellent and 37% poor/very poor, the lowest for this time of year since 1996.
This compares with the previous year average of 53% good/excellent and 17% poor/very poor.
As for oats, oats planted was reported at 34% vs. the five-year average of 39%, and 24% of oats had emerged as of April 17, which was 4% less than the five-year average.
The report also indicated that nationwide, topsoil moisture was rated as 48% adequate and 16% surplus.
The previous year was 61% adequate and 8% surplus.
On the demand side, USDA reported 1.139 MMT of corn was shipped during the week of 4/14.
That was down from 1.47 MMT last week and from 1.559 MMT the same week last year.
Accumulated corn shipments reached 33.2 MMT as of 4/14. Inspections data also showed 316,467 MT of milo was shipped for a season total of 4.913 MMT.
That is down from 5.2 MMT at the same point last year.
As for soybean, weekly inspections data showed 972,509 MT of soybeans were exported during the week of 4/14.
Last week’s inspections were 818,689 MT.
The total soybean export program reached 45.964 MMT through 4/14, which is still down from 55.21 MMT at the same point last season.
As for wheat, USDA reported 432,253 MT of wheat was inspected for export during the week that ended 4/14.
That was up 13,068 MT wk/wk, but was down 196,812 yr/yr.
The USDA had MYTD wheat shipments tallied as 18.067 MMT, compared to 22 MMT at the same point last year.
Meantime, the U.S. soybean crush rose in March to the highest level on record for the third month of the year, while stocks of soybean oil fell to the lowest since November, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday.
NOPA members, indeed, crushed 181.759 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 10.1% from the February crush of 165.057 million bushels and up 2.1% from the 177.984 million bushels processed in March 2021.
It was the largest March crush on record among NOPA members.
The crush had been expected to rise to 181.991 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.
Estimates ranged from 179.200 million to 186.000 million bushels, with a median of 181.558 million bushels.
NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of March 31 were 1.908 billion lbs.
The stocks were down 7.3% from the 22-month high of 2.059 billion lbs at the end of February and up 7.7% from stocks totaling 1.771 billion lbs at the end of March 2021.
Soyoil supplies at the end of March were expected to have risen to 2.072 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from eight analysts.
Estimates ranged from 1.960 billion to 2.144 billion, with a median of 2.077 billion.
Meantime, USDA’s National Ethanol report showed corn oil prices were slightly up this week as renged between 77.25 NE and 79.50 IO cents/lb.
That compares to 76.28 and 78.13 cents seen regionally last week.
DDGS FOB prices were also stronger, with NOLA quotes from $332 LW to $365, while PNW was $15 higer to $380/ton.
Past week DDGS FOB export quotes were $315 – $345/ton in NOLA and $365 in the PNW.
Ethanol cash prices were between $2.53 IO to $2.71/gal EC.
That compare to prior week when they ranged between $2.28 MI_SD to $2.40/gal EC.
Meanwhile gasoline futures ended the week at $3.3999, that was up from $3.0548/gal posted last week.
USDA’s weekly biofuels report showed B100 prices averaged $6.51, down from $6.59/gal past week’s.
USDA’s weekly Crush report showed the estimated processing value of soybeans was $20.75/bu on $16.96 cash beans.
That compared to $20.45/bu reported prior week on $16.98 beans.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that money managers through April 12 lifted their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 369,952 contracts from 362,306 the week before.
End users bought more corn through April 12, and commodity index traders increased their total number of positions by 2% to over 700,000 contracts, the most since June 2021.
As for soybean, money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 171,873 contracts from 163,655 a week earlier, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
For soy oil in the week ended April 12, money managers increased their net long by about 7,300 contracts to 84,063 futures and options contracts.
For soybean meal money managers cut more than 7,000 contracts from their net long.
However, the resulting 93,411 futures and options contracts is extremely bullish in context.
For wheat, money managers in that period added less than 3,000 contracts to their CBOT wheat net long, which reached 16,639 futures and options contracts.
They added more than 4,000 K.C. contracts, and their net long of 49,392 is a 14-week high.
Their Minneapolis net long remained above 18,000 contracts.
In this context, corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Monday after sliding 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator while firming 2 to 3 cents higher at two interior river terminals.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm, after rising 4 to 6 cents at three Midwestern locations.
The funds were net buyers on Friday for 16,000 lots of corn, 10,000 lots of soybeans and 10,500 lots of wheat.
From Canada, Canadian wheat exports during week 36 were just 67.4k mt.
That was sharply down from 188.7k mt a week ago.
As for durum, export durum amounts in week 36 at 42.9k mt, down from 53.6 the prior week.
From Central America, Guatemala continues to be a net importer of both yellow corn and rice.
Corn area and production in MY2022/2023 are forecast to shrink one percent as some commercial farmers have decided not to plant corn given record high increases of more than 100 percent in fertilizer costs (mainly urea) and a nearly 90 percent increase in oil prices.
Rice production will shrink 3 percent, but planted area maintains its previous size as the government reinstated the mandatory domestic purchase policy when managing quotas.
Consumption of corn and rice, the main grains in the country, are forecast to drop as prices in 2022 report record highs of up to 42 percent above past 5-years average prices.
FEWS NET forecasts a food security phase 3 crisis in Guatemala.
From Caribbean island, Russian – Ukraine war is making Cuba’s three-year-old foreign exchange crisis worse as import costs jump, undermining an incipient recovery and threatening more hardship for residents, according to some economic experts and businessmen.
Vital imports including fuel and grains have seen prices soar between 25% and 40% this year, putting new pressure on a government chronically short of dollars.
Cuba imports around 60% of the fuel and 65% of the food it consumes, according to the government.
The spike in import costs risks worsening shortages already forcing citizens to line up for food, medicine and other basic goods.
Economy Minister Alejandro Gil in late March said higher prices were undermining plans to cut import costs, adding that gas shortage and power outages were in part due to higher fuel prices and shipping disruptions.
“Until the month before last … a 40,000-ton diesel tanker cost us $35-36 million, today that same ship costs $58 million.”
Cuban gasoline and electricity prices are fixed by the state which absorbs higher import costs.
The same is true of some food, which the government distributes through a ration system, leading to shortages and soaring prices on the informal market when it is cash short.
The Cuban government did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
Cuba is not a member of the International Monetary Fund or any other global lending organizations from which it could seek aid to cushion the crisis.
Cuban pesos are not exchangeable outside of the Caribbean island nation, making it dependent on dollars earned from exports and services such as tourism to pay for everything from fuel, food and medicine to agricultural supplies, machinery and spare parts.
The cash crunch led to a 40% drop in imports during the 2020-21 period, the government reported.
The Cuban economy shrank 9% during the first two years of the pandemic, according to official numbers, with shortages caused by the government’s tight budget leading to blackouts and unprecedented protests last July.
From South America, as Venezuela’s economy continues to recover into MY 2022/23, Venezuela is expected to increase its consumption of wheat by 5.2 percent.
With rising global prices of wheat, Venezuela may shift to more price competitive sources like Brazil and away from the United States for wheat grains.
Venezuela is continuing to strengthen its domestic milling capacity, which has led to an increase in the share of imports of wheat grain and a decrease in the share of imports of wheat flour and products.
Producers in Venezuela are viewing global rises in commodity prices as an opportunity to encourage domestic production of corn, which is expected to increase by 10 percent in MY 2022/23.
Despite concern that sanctions against Russia should cause a shortfall of fertilizer in Brazil, preliminary shipping data shows orders being fulfilled and vessels heading for Brazil, potentially allowing a normal grain planting season.
At least 24 vessels carrying almost 678,000 tonnes of Russian fertilizers from ports in the country, indeed, are expected to reach Brazil in the next weeks, according to preliminary shipping data compiled by Agrinvest Commodities.
The data show 11 of the 24 vessels left ports including Saint Petersburg and Murmansk after Feb. 24, when the war started.
Most are carrying potassium chloride used on soy and corn fields.
Brazil is dependent on fertilizer imports.
Brazil’s overall imports of fertilizer and raw materials used to make plant nutrients rose by 24.57% to 9.795 million tonnes in the first quarter, according to data from Siacesp, an industry group.
Potassium chloride imports alone jumped 41.75% to 3.080 million tonnes.
Delays or a lack of fertilizer would imperil Brazil’s summer grain season that will begin in the final quarter of 2022.
Argentine grains trucking activity has rebounded to near normal levels after a major strike last week, according to transport data and port sources.
The striking truck owners had been demanding a hike in freight rates to offset rising fuel prices.
Some 85% of Argentine grains are transported domestically by truck, mostly to inland ports on the Parana River.
Meantime, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange, farmers have harvested some 14.4% the soybean planted area and 19.4% of the area planted with corn.
The exchange forecasts a 2021/22 soybean harvest of 42 million tonnes and 49 million tonnes for corn.
Paraguayan wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast up at 280,000 metric tons as a result of a projected larger production of 1 million metric tons (MMT).
USDA attaché projects a similar acreage, but somewhat higher yields.
Exports of corn in MY 2022/2023 are forecast at 2.8 MMT as production returns to more normal levels.
In MY 2021/2022 corn planted acreage, production, and exports are all forecast at record levels with 6.4 MMT of production on 1.2 million hectares, leading to projected exports of 4.4 MMT.
In Europe, since April 17, the EU ports have banned the entry of Russian ships.
The corresponding norm was adopted in the fifth package of sanctions against Russia.
The norm provides that the entrance to the sea and river ports is prohibited for all ships under Russian flag or ships that changed their Russian registration after February 24, 2022.
However, the EU has provided for certain exceptions when ships are allowed to pass.
These exceptions include Russian ships transporting energy resources, food (wheat) or medicine to the EU.
Meantime, Bulgaria’s government is ready to buy 750,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 325,000 tonnes of sunflower seed from local growers on the Sofia Commodity Exchange as part of plans to boost the country’s food reserves in the context of the war in Ukraine, agriculture minister Ivan Ivanov said.
The finance ministry has provided 1.1 billion levs ($607.3 million/562.4 million euro) for the purchases, with the grain and sunflower seed to be bought under public procurement procedures, Ivanov told local broadcaster Nova TV over the weekend.
The purchasing prices had been set at up to 570 levs per tonne of milling wheat and up to 1,400 levs per tonne of sunflower seed, with starting prices on the local commodity exchange expected to be about 20% lower, deputy agriculture minister Ivan Hristanov said earlier this month.
In March, the Bulgarian government set aside funds to purchase grains from local producers with the aim of guaranteeing the country’s food security, as the war in Ukraine — one of the world’s top grain producers, has led to concerns over supplies and rising commodity prices.
(1 euro = 1.95583 levs).
From North Africa, earlier this month, the Egyptian Government announced its wheat reserves had dropped significantly since the war in Ukraine began in February.
The world’s largest importer typically has as much as one month’s import volume, or 1Mt, in transit at any one point in time.
Egypt returned to the global wheat market last week, sealing deals on Wednesday to purchase 350,000 tonnes, the majority of which will come from Europe.
Stocks are expected to receive a boost from the local harvest, which commences this month.
Production is forecast to increase by 8.9pc from 9Mt in 2021 to 9.8Mt this year.
The higher production is attributable to a higher harvested area, estimated to be 1.53 million hectares (Mha) compared to 1.4Mha last year.
Egyptian authorities are hoping to increase the harvested area by around 30pc, or 420,000ha, over the next three years.
The higher area came after the government announced its wheat-purchasing prices ahead of the planting season last year.
On March 15, the government approved an additional incentive of 65 Egyptian pounds (EGP) per ardeb, or $27.50/t, on the prices it had previously agreed to pay farmers to purchase their locally produced wheat.
After this increase, the government payments to farmers will range from EGP865/ardeb to EGP885/ardeb or about $366-$375/t based on quality and moisture.
The new price is 22pc higher than last season’s procurement price, and payment shall be cash on receipt of the wheat, or within a maximum of 48 hours.
Egypt’s Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade (MoSIT) also issued a ministerial decree requiring every wheat producer to sell a minimum of 12 ardebs per feddan, or 4.28t/ha, to governmental wheat purveyors this harvest season.
The decision prohibits farmers from selling the remainder of their wheat production to non-governmental agencies unless a permit is first obtained from the MoSIT.
The decree also stipulated that large farms (greater than 10 hectares) should sell 90pc of their wheat production to governmental wheat merchants and, in return, will receive subsidised fertilisers for their summer-cropping program.
The government aims to procure 6Mt of wheat from local growers this harvest, a historically high 61.2pc of estimated national production.
This goal is 66.7pc higher than last year’s purchases of 3.6Mt and 71.4pc higher than the 2020 purchases of 3.5Mt.
This season’s procurement program commenced on April 1 insteadof April 15, and will continue through to the end of August instead of mid-July.
Meantime, Egypt announced an agreement to source wheat supplies from India.
In an announcement last Friday, India’s Commerce Minister said that Egypt is likely to buy around 1Mt of wheat from India, 240,000t of which is expected to be shipped in April.
The acceptance of India reportedly came after a rigorous process of field visits and checks of Indian quarantine facilities by Egyptian authorities due to concerns that Indian wheat imports may contain karnal bunt disease, a threat to domestic output.
However, the north African nation still has some way to go to meet the 12Mt wheat import target for the 2021-22 marketing year, which would enable it to meet domestic demand and slightly rebuild stocks.
Morocco expects spending on subsidies of soft wheat, cooking gas and sugar to rise to 32 billion dirhams ($3.2) from 21 billion dirhams last year, due to a surge in international prices, the prime minister told parliament on Monday.
The government earmarked 17 billion dirhams for subsidies in the budget, and the shortfall will be offset by higher tax revenue, Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch said.
Particularly, Morocco has offered aid to transport operators such as trucks and taxi drivers to mitigate the impact of higher prices.
It also provided 2 billion dirhams for the pandemic-hit tourism sector and 10 billion dirhams to help farmers deal with the impact of drought.
“So far we did not resort to additional loans or use a liquidity line,” the Ministry said, adding that tax revenue had risen by a quarter by the end of February compared to the same period last year.
Last month the central bank said Morocco’s fiscal deficit would remain unchanged at 6.3%, citing an increase in phosphates sales.
The government expects growth to be 1.7% this year from 7.3% last year after the worst drought in decades led to a drop in agricultural output.
The agriculture ministry said 53% of wheat plantations have been lost to drought this season.
From the Black Sea basin, Russian wheat export prices rose last week, thanks to more active supplies from the country’s Black Sea ports and some supplies from the Azov Sea.
There are new deals, although not too many.
There are a very limited number of countries, with Turkey as prime destination, followed by Iran and Egypt.
According to Sovecon, Russia exported around 630,000 tonnes of grains last week.
That was up, from 400,000 tonnes a prior week.
However, Sovecon estimates the country’s April wheat exports will reach 1.9 MMT, a month-over-month decline of 14%, if realized.
Meantime, the weather remains good for Russia’s spring grain sowing.
By April 14, spring grains were planted on 1.3 million hectares, against 1.1 million hectares a year earlier, Sovecon said.
According to the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing is actively underway in the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, as well as in the Rostov region.
However, it is still too early to make forecasts about new output yield.
In the more northern regions, sowing has not yet begun, as there is still snow on the fields, but farmers have already stocked up on everything they need and are ready to start the campaign as soon as the weather normalizes.
In this context, Russian wheat export price with 12.5% protein content, for supply in May, FOB, Black Sea ports, were up $2 to $370 at the end of last week according to the IKAR.
According to APK-Inform, as of April 15, the offer prices of 12.5% and feed wheat were at 370-385 and 340-355 USD/t FOB Black Sea (April-May) respectvely.
Meantime, wheat prices in the domestic market fell.
Some exporters are approaching the limit of their export quotas; export duty are increasing more and more and all that are weighing on wheat demand.
Strengthening of rouble made an additional pressure.
Thus, domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, delivery excludes, according to Sovecon, was valued at 16,475 rbls/t, down 250 rblsfrom prior week.
Other Russian data, saw the sunflower seeds at 42,225 rbls/t -4,275 rbls (Sovecon);
Domestic sunflower oil at 118,350 rbls/t -5,000 rbls (Sovecon);
Export prices of sunflower oil at $1,800/t -$30 (IKAR);
Export prices of sunflower oil $1,900-2,000/t -$100 (Sovecon);
The offer prices of Russian crude sunflower oil totaled 1845-1880 USD/t FOB (April-May) as of the morning of April 18 (APK-Inform);
The bid prices were at 1750-1785 USD/t (APK-Inform).
Soybeans were at 53,900 rbls/t +1,600 rbls (Sovecon);
White sugar, Russia’s south $818.1/t -$80 (IKAR).
Just to remember, as we said last week, in the sunflower oil market, Russia set its export tax at $372 per tonne for May, up from $313 per tonne in April.
In Ukraine, the export prices of corn decreased last week, according to APK-Inform.
Supply is prevailing over the demand.
Ukrainian corn keep on moving toward the western borders by land and the volumes are growing.
The largest concentration of rolling stock is observed at the crossings Izov-Hrubieszów (queue at the border is 19 days), Uzhgorod-Matevtsi (24 days), Chop-Cierna nad Tisou (14 days), and the largest delay of wagons is observed at the crossing Dyakovo-Halmeu (28 days).
The neighboring countries were not ready to a sharp increase of rail transportation through their territories due to the lack of locomotives and wagons, limited capacity.
As of the morning of April 14, 29 500 wagons were accumulated at the border checkpoints.
Consequentially, Ukraine to temporarily restrict goods supplies from Ukraine to Poland and Romania by rail, deputy commercial director of Ukrzaliznytsia Valery Tkachov said.
However, it should to note that the number increased by 28% since the start of the month.
In this context, the bid prices decreased from 240-250 USD/t DAP week ago to 230-250 USD/t DAP Izov (April-May).
The purchasing prices for supply to the Romanian port of Constanta decreased by average 5-10 USD/t to 295-310 USD/t.
The bid prices in the ports of Reni and Izmail decreased from 220-240 USD/t in the middle of the week to 205-220 USD/t by the end of the week.
Ditto for the prices of Ukrainian sunflower meal.
The shipments to Belarus were stopped.
While the processing capacities has returned to work.
Thus, the bid prices of sunflower meal totaled 300-315 USD/t DAP-border as of April 18, compared to 350-370 USD/t at the start of the month.
The buyers were waiting for further decrease of the prices.
In contrast, the export prices of Ukrainian GM soybean cake have been growing since the start of February.
As of April 15, indeed, the offer prices of GM soybean cake totaled 536-560 EUR/t FCA, up 95-106 EUR/t compared to the beginning of the reporting period.
Meantime, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry raised their spring planted area forecast by 600k HA to 14m flat.
That is still down 17% from last year’s spring grains area.
Of that, 122.6k HA have already been sown for corn production.
Last year, Ukraine harvested 5.47m HA of corn.
Meantime, around 1.25 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds are on commercial vessels blocked in Ukrainian seaports, and part of the cargo may deteriorate in the near future, Ukraine’s farm minister was quoted as saying on Friday.
From Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Agriculture introduced a quotas on export of wheat and flour, until June 15.
Quota for wheat and meslin is set at 1 mln tonnes, for wheat and rye-wheat flout at 300 thsd tonnes.
Also, a company can apply for quota for wheat export only after it sells 10% of a volume declared for export to the State Food Corporation at a fixed price.
From the Middle East, continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022.
The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.
USDA attaché forecasts MY 2022/23 wheat production to be 3.25 million metric tons, much less than previous seasons, which will drive up imports.
Sharp increases in the price of food items and agriculture inputs in local and international markets, in addition to the devaluation of the Iraqi Dinar and the lifting of agricultural subsidies, add to the constraints on production.
However, grain and feed demand continues to rise.
From the Middle Kingdom, imports of China’s major agriculture products in March, according to data released on Monday by the General Administration of Customs, saw, corn at 2.41 mln tonnes.
That was a 5.5% increase versus year-ago totals.
Wheat imports were at 870,000 t.
That’s a 4.6% increase from last year’s pace so far.
Barley imports in March were at 550,000 tonnes.
That was down 48.4% from March last year.
Year to date total imports were down 1.72 mln, or -27.7% compared last year.
Sorghum imports in March were at 1 mln tonnes.
That was up 57.5% from March last year and 2.59 mln tonnes or 26.9% from last year’s pace so far.
Pork imports were at 140,000.
That was down -70% from March last year and by 420,000 or by -64.2% year to date.
Meantime, China sold 531,469 MT of wheat from state reserves on April 13.
The full offer was 551,145 MT.
China will sell 500,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from its state reserves on April 22, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice on its website last Friday.
The sale is aimed at alleviating tight supply in the domestic market.
From South East Asia, hot weather across north India has cut wheat yields at a time when the country is counting on a bumper crop to tap an export market left struggling with a gap in supply due to the Ukraine war.
Wheat is currently being harvested in major grain-bowl states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
Cultivators said their per-acre yields (one acre equals 0.40 hectare) have fallen 10-15%.
Heatwave conditions in March, when the crop was in advanced ripening stage, shrivelled grains, affecting both quality and weight of output, farmers said.
Meantime, India’s Minister of Food and Commerce forecasts 10 to 15 MMT of Indian wheat exports in 22/23.
That would be a record and up from this year’s record 8.5 MMT.
India had shipped 2.56 MMT in 2020/21, but had been a net importer for 6 of the past 16 years.
Indonesia‘s state food procurement agency Bulog has been assigned to distribute a maximum of 800,000 tonnes of subsidised soybean to local tofu and tempeh makers amid rising global prices, a company official said on Tuesday.
Bulog was tasked with distributing 200,000 tonnes of soy each month for the next four months, starting with locally available stocks, whether from local farmers or soy that has been previously imported.
Demand from the subsidised soy during the first month did not reach the allotted maximum 200,000 tonnes, and Bulog has not scheduled any tender for imports yet.
The agency estimated it would distribute 23,173 tonnes of the subsidised soybean by the end of this month.
Indonesia’s government has allocated 1,000 rupiah for each kilogramme of soybean sold by Bulog in an effort to cool down prices.
From Australia, Australia exported tonnes 608,836 tonnes of canola in February, down 7 per cent from the 652,530t shipped in January, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Continuing the trend of recent months, Germany was the biggest market for February shipments.
It was the destination for 141,294t of the total, followed by Belgium on 129,929t and France on 88,705t.
According to Lachstock Consulting, Australia’s 2021-22 canola-shipment program will hit its straps at more than 800,000t each month from March to May.
This falls well short of the monthly 1 million tonnes expected in March at least, and is a function of fierce competition on shipping stems across southern Australia from wheat, barley and pulses.
In its Agricultural commodities, in March quarters 2022 report, ABARES has forecast Australia’s 2021-22 (Oct-Sep) canola exports at a record 5.2 million tonnes (Mt), well ahead of the record 3.6Mt shipped in 2016-17.
Meantime, Aussie current crop wheat markets late last week continued to firm amid deliveries of protein wheat.
Victorian and northern NSW bids gained $10-15/t compared with the previous week.
New crop markets also continued to firm on all commodities but liquidity remained limited.
Port congestion continues to be a problem.
Wait times have improved slightly this week at Port Kembla and Newcastle.
But although the outlook remains steady at 10 days in Geelong, it is getting worse at most other major ports including Albany (17 days), Kwinana (16 days), Kembla (20 days) and Lucky Bay (7 days).
Easter Monday rainfall totals have been welcomed in Victoria with the forecast for the next 8 days looking very positive for southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
It will provide a great start to the season for growers who now are into their seeding programs.
On international trade scene, three South Korean importers have purchased a total of 121,000 tonnes of soymeal in private deals largely expected to be sourced from South America.
The Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought 60,000 tonnes from trading house Cofco at an estimated $595.50 a tonne c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading.
