Soybean Chicago prices jostled through a choppy session yesterday, finishing with modest gains of around 0.15%, while corn prices weren’t so fortunate, with prices fading 1% lower.
Indeed, seems that export optimism from a flurry of sales to China last week began to cool off and expectations for historically large crops in the U.S. and Brazil are applying additional headwinds.
Indeed, according to IHS Markit Agribusiness, the estimates for 2021 U.S. corn plantings raised from 94.244 million acres in January up to 94.294 million acres.
That would be 3.8% above 2020 totals, if realized.
In add, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s second corn crop is now 86% planted, which is well below the historical average of 96% for this time of year but remain in any case a big planted area.
About 34.8 million acres of the crop are expected to go into the ground this season and will account for approximately 77% of the country’s total corn production.
IHS Markit also predicting 2021 U.S. soybean acres will reach 89.730 million acres, which is a bit lower than its January forecast of 90.080 million acres but up 8% year-over-year, if realized.
According to consultancy AgRural, the 2020/21 Brazilian soybean harvest is still lagging moderately behind last year’s pace, at 59% completion, however, drier weather over the past few days helped speed harvest pace.
Also wheat prices were mixed, mostly lower.
CBOT futures trended modestly higher, while Kansas City HRW and MGEX spring wheat contracts spilled into the red.
Indeed, more rains are forecast for the western corn belt and central Kansas this week, with another 1-2″ possible across some of the central HRW areas.
Also about wheat IHS Markit showed the plantings in the U.S., with a forecast of 45.281 million acres for the 2021 harvest, which is unchanged from the group’s January projection.
Regular US weekly export inspections reported, that seen wheat slid moderately lower week-over-week, to 648 485 t.
However, that surpassed the entire range of analyst estimates.
Bangladesh was the No. 1 destination.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year are still slightly behind last year’s pace.
Also corn export inspections tilted slightly lower week-over-week to 1 962 118 t.
Also in this case, that was still good enough to land on the higher end of trade estimates.
Mexico topped all destinations.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year continue to grow its lead over last year’s pace.
Soybean export inspections reached only 489 405 t, trailing the prior week’s tally by 11%.
In any case, was still on the upper end of trade estimates.
Egypt was the No. 1 destination.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year still have a commanding lead over last year’s pace.
There was also 70,000t of milo/sorghum to China.
On European market, yesterday, wheat prices gave further ground in a context of reduced export activity and a particularly favorable climate.
Wheat is particularly benefiting from excellent conditions throughout the northern hemisphere, while corn market was steady, even if still supported by a stretched world supply and demand balance and a buoyant Chinese demand.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports for the 2020/21 marketing year are down from last year’s pace as reaching at 11.38 Mt through March 21, vs. 15.62 Mt of 2020.
European Union soybean imports for the 2020/21 marketing year are at 386.5 million bushels through March 22, which is slightly above last year’s pace so far.
EU soymeal and palm oil imports are down year-over-year, meantime.
European Union soft wheat exports for the 2020/21 marketing year reached 19.34 Mt through March 21, trending well below last year’s pace of 24.65 Mt .
Also EU Barley exports wer down, amounting to 5.51 Mt vs. 5.66 Mt in 2019-20 while those of rapeseed are close to last season’s level at 4.87 Mt vs. 4.82 Mt.
The total rapeseed import volume for this marketing year is estimated at 6.5 Mt.
In this context, rapeseed could rebound today also in the wake of the good trend noted in palm, soy and canola oils.
Palm oil, in particular, is performing well in this start of week due a good export business and the fact that US President expressed its willingness to increase the use of veg oils in biofuels.
From the Black Sea area, headline chatter was doing the rounds yesterday after Reuters wrote an article about the recent collapse in Black Sea cash wheat prices.
Prices were off again today, the commentary remaining the same: that there were fewer buyers and in the limited time between now and new crop harvest, slow demand was putting pressure on the inverse.
Meantime, in add, we note that crop conditions mostly are good, and there are now better chances for rain (20-30+ mm) across most of the Russian Hard Red Winter wheat areas into the coming week extended run forecasts, so boosting optimism as we come out of dormancy.
And even if the recovery in spring activity in Russia is slightly behind last year, before the weekend, Russian growers had just sown 221,000 ha of spring crops compared to 926,000 ha at the same time last year we must note that winter plated area was up.
Ukraine’s corn exports for the 2020/21 marketing year are at 607.5 million bushels, according to newly released data from the economy ministry.
Total grain exports have sagged 23.4% year-over-year so far.
Ukraine has burned through about 80% of its total wheat export quotas for the 2020/21 marketing year so far, selling 514.4 million bushels since last July.
Total grain exports are expected to face a moderate year-over-year decline after a smaller harvest last fall.
Russian private consultancy estimates the country’s February wheat exports at 138.2 million bushels.
That’s an improvement of 36% over January’s tally but otherwise the lowest monthly total since last July.
Aussie local markets remain slow on old crop, with more interest shifting into the new crop as planting approaches.
Wide bid and ask spreads on old crop wheat have slowed trade.
And also barley felt slightly softer to start the week yesterday.
Field work is kicking into gear with early pasture plantings likely to start off into next week in the SE for some grazing canola, and regular crops set to start planting mid-April.
On international trade scenario, China sold another 60 million bushels of its state wheat reserves on auction late last week, which was 40.6% of the total available for sale.
The country has offered nine similar wheat sales so far this year in an attempt to lower domestic feed costs amid soaring corn prices.
Egypt’s government reports that the country’s strategic wheat reserves are sufficient to last through the end of June.
Egypt is the world’s No. 1 wheat importer.
On financial market hand, Wall St., the Dow climbed, after falling bond yields quelled some concerns about tech stock valuations and inflation.
The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Energy futures moved modestly higher with crude oil was treading water around $61.40 per barrel, while diesel added 0.4% and gasoline rose 0.7%.
Tonight we will see how they will close the sessions.
