In Chicago, the grain prices continue to struggle to find a traction.
Despite some bullish demand news, corn prices were unable to gather up much forward momentum, finishing Wednesday’s session narrowly mixed.
Soybean prices sagged 0.5% lower and the most wheat contracts losing 1% or more as export demand for both crops is once again in question ahead of USDA’s next weekly sales report, which will be released today.
About corn prices, indeed, traders mostly shrugged off news of another massive sale to China, focusing instead on expectations for historically large U.S. acres planted later this spring.
Soybean prices spilled moderately lower after reports of rain in Argentina and expectations for slower U.S. exports triggered a round of technical selling.
However, to note that Argentina’s agriculture minister yesterday reported that farmers have already sold 11.89 Mt of soybeans out of an estimated 45 Mt to be harvested.
On the other hand, in Brazil, fears remain about corn planting with rains still in the forecast.
Wheat prices fell on another round of technical selling prompted by worries over rainy weather, slower exports in the U.S., along with better production potential in Russia.
Ahead of this morning’s weekly export report from USDA, analysts expect to see wheat sales ranging between 5.5 million and 22.0 million bushels for the week ending March 11.
About soybean, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 3.7 million and 29.4 million bushels for the week ending March 11.
Analysts also think USDA will show soymeal sales ranging between 100,000 and 300,000 metric tons last week, plus up to 30,000 MT of soyoil sales.
About corn, analysts think the agency will show corn sales ranging between 13.8 million and 45.3 million bushels for the week ending March 11.
Actuals will need to make it to the middle of those guesses to best the prior week’s tally.
To note, that today’s weekly export sales figures are a week lagged and so, will not include the two corn flashes sales to China.
US ethanol production improved for the third consecutive week, moving to a daily average of 971,000 barrels, according to the newest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That’s also the best weekly performance since mid-December.
Stocks were off massively, down 0.7 million barrels to 21.3, with more talk about export loadings.
However, the daily average has yet to break the 1 million mark since last spring, when coronavirus lockdowns curbed demand.
South Africa could reach a near-record corn production of 633.8 million bushels, according to some estimates.
Also european market evolved little yesterday, consolidating on the current levels.
France’s wheat origin is still uncompetitive, particularly in relation to its European neighbours.
Citing favorable growing conditions, Russian consultancy SovEcon has raised its estimates for the country’s 2021 wheat production by 4.1% to 79.3 Mt!
Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
And the rising in Russian production estimates, the pressurized crude prices, penalized Matif prices.
Really, european wheat had attempted a small technical rebound, before returning to a stable to bearish note.
Oilseed prices, instead, fell sharply yesterday after reaching record levels at the end of last week.
The canola prices were down, on the weigth of 2021 crops.
Rapeseed, on the other hand, turned sharply into negative territory, weighed down by the drop in crude oil prices.
The suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in several European countries (including Italy, France and Germany) is weighing heavily on the prices of black gold, and consequently on the entire biodiesel industry.
Palm oil is also losing ground amid rising US crude oil stocks this week.
Aussie markets yesterday saw a small amount of trade coverage business.
However, most markets are still in the execution/logistics rut.
Meantime, plenty of fertiliser spreading is being reported across the east coast.
Consequently, there’s less interest from farmers in new contracts grain, as they gear up for planting.
Macro markets were given a nice shot in the arm by the US Federal Reserve after indicated it would stay away from making any interest rate hikes through 2023.
The Fed also expects to see the US GDP grow by 6.5% this year, with slower growth likely after that.
About this, there’s plenty of speculation about the extent of the economic recovery but markets do love cheap money.
Inflation concerns have taken a back seat in the short term, but after the comments by the Fed we expect to see renewed discussion picking back up again there soon.
In this context, on Wall St., the Dow moved up 189 points higher while energy prices took a spill lower.
Crude oil, indeed, dropped 0.4%.
Gasoline tumbled 2.5% lower, and diesel down around 1.5%.
On the international trade scenario, Taiwan has purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from Argentina, in an international tender that closed earlier today.
The grain is for shipment between late May and mid-June.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 42,000 t of durum wheat, 117,000 t of soft wheat and 75,000 t of feed barley from optional origins that all close on Thursday.
The grain is for shipment in April and May.
Algeria is buying 40,000 t of feed barley.
Tonight we will see how they will close the sessions.
