US export optimism sparked corn rally in Chicago; soybeans and wheat also trended higher, there.
US grains prices started the week in the green, thanks in large part to a mostly better-than-expected set of export inspection data, that kicked off a round of technical buying.
Regular corn weekly export inspections, indeed, were very large, 2.2 million tonnes (Mt), wheat substantial, 0.7Mt (including a TX durum shipment to Algeria) while soybeans shipments were as expected, 0.5Mt.
Corn had 0.3Mt to China, but also massive Japanese movements with over 0.5Mt loaded.
Milo/sorghum exports were 233,000t, all to China.
So, wheat export inspections saw week-over-week improvements of 41%.
Corn export inspections climbed 32% above last week’s.
While, soybean export inspections were relatively disappointing, sliding 13%.
In this context US corn prices jumped as export inspection data ended up being above all trade estimates.
US wheat prices picked up moderate gains on a round of technical buying spurred by spillover strength from corn and a solid round of export inspection data.
While Chicago soybean prices followed corn higher, despite a lackluster round of US export inspection data.
Meantime, however, NOPA Feb soybean crush report came in, showing 155.2 million bushels, that was well below expectations.
February crush is usually low because it’s a shorter month, but this was down 7pc compared with last year, and was a further drop than expected.
In add, we have also seen soymeal exports were at 837,815 metric tons in February, down from 969,353 MT in January.
By-state crop conditions reports from Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas were not yet out, but regardless this, after the latest storm and moisture reports, overall ideas are shifting back sharply to the positive.
Indeed, the crop rating is up on wheats in Kansas at 38% considered good to excellent against 36% last week.
With March half over, now markets are very focused in on the upcoming prospective plantings report due for release on 31 March as it will provide first official plantings estimate of corn, beans, spring wheat and sorghum area for 2021.
Traders are also closely watching for harvest news from South America, which has seen fieldwork bogged down by recent rains with Sorriso that declared emergency status even if, some positivity news was coming out of Argentina last night, pleasantly surprised by the weekend rain with the hope to have saved, some later crops.
In this context, corn futures moved about 1.5% higher.
Most wheat contracted up around 0.5% more, and soybeans tacking on gains of 0.4%.
About European market, on the contrary, it evolved without a distinct trend, starting its week, with opposite variations according to maturity and culture.
Rapeseed in particular made new gains in the short term, while prices for the next season evolve on a neutral to downward trend.
Wheat took the opposite path with a slight contraction in the last deadline of the season, and small gains in the distance.
Really, only at the end of the session european market was animated by the announcement of weekly inspections of corn in the American ports near record, as the highest since 1989!
In fact, the session have seen the EU’s crop outlook MARS update that confirmed fairly positive conditions across the majority of the EU with an estimate of future soft wheat yield for Europe at 5.89 t / ha against 5.7 t last year and 3.5% above the 5-year average, a consequence of the good condition of current cultures.
Ditto for winter barley with an average European yield which could reach 5.88 t / ga, ie an increase of 4.7% compared to the 5-year average.
In rapeseed, the average yield should also increase to 3.26 t / ha.
Meantime, we have also seen that the European Union corn imports for the 2020/21 marketing year were at 11.11 million tonnes against 15.21 million last year through March 11, per the latest data from the European Commission.
European Union soybean imports for the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 375.2 million bushels through March 11, trending slightly above last year’s pace so far.
EU canola imports are slightly higher year-over-year, currently displayed at 4.76 million tonnes against 4.63 million last year to date.
While EU soymeal imports are trending moderately lower.
European wheat exports are currently at 18.67 million tonnes against 23.58 million last year to date.
Barley exports are currently at 5.50 million tonnes, close to 5.51 million last year.
Black Sea cash markets remaining under pressure with fewer bids forcing offers to meet them on the low end.
In Ukraine, the economy ministry reported that the country’s 2020/21 corn exports have reached 586.6 million bushels.
Total grain exports are down 23% year-over-year, reflecting the fact that Ukraine’s 2020 harvest failed to match the prior year’s record-breaking production.
Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2020/21 marketing year are now at 510.7 million bushels since July 1.
That represents nearly 80% of the country’s total export quota for this season.
Ukraine typically exports the vast majority of its grain and is one of the world’s top exporters.
The switch in focus to new crop continues, with only a little over three months until new crop harvest.
Meantime, the introduction of export taxes for Russian barley and corn took effect yesterday.
This tax is respectively 25 and 10 EUR / t.
This measure is therefore unlikely to support the pace of the country’s exports, which is currently showing particularly low levels.
Russian consultancy, in add, projects the country’s February wheat exports at 138.2 million bushels, which would be 36% above January’s tally but otherwise the lowest monthly total since last July, if realized.
In add, there’s been renewed talk about the potential for winter kill/damage in parts of Russia, with ice crusting reported in parts of Central Russia and worries about the duration of this crust.
Aussie local markets felt slightly softer yesterday in a fairly quiet start to the week.
On the international scene, Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 65 000 t of animal feed corn to be sourced from either the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
The tender closes on Wednesday and is for shipment between late May and the end of June.
China sold another 148.2 million bushels of its state wheat reserves on auction earlier today, which was 56.1% of the total available for sale.
There have been eight similar wheat auctions so far this year as the country attempts to find lower-cost alternatives to corn for its livestock sector.
Investors continue to show optimism over the reopening economy and a new round of coronavirus stimulus aid.
Energy futures spilled into the red, in contrast.
Crude oil dipped 0.25% lower to stay just above $65 per barrel.
Gasoline dropped 2%, with diesel down around 0.75%.
The dollar moved little against the euro posted at 1.1940 while it weakened against the ruble at 72.85.
Tonight we will see how they will close the sessions.
