US farm markets closed moderately higher yesterday.
Corn futures bounced back, closing with fractionally gains around 0,52%.
Soybeans complex were mixed as oil gained so, soybeans closed the Thursday session with gains around 0,43%.
CBT SRW prices were 0.07% to 0.43% higher on the day.
KC prices recovered 0.39% to 0.86%.
Minneapolis wheat bounced from early session losses to close fractionally higher.
Sept HRS prices were the outlier with a 6 3/4 cent gain.
On macro markets, oil prices were mixed on this morning after a strong rise in yesterday session on a weaker dollar and a fall in U.S. crude stocks.
Indeed, both benchmark oil contracts jumped 2% on Thursday, putting WTI on track to climb 1.8% for the week, while Brent headed for a 0.6% weekly gain, setting for modest weekly gains ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. monthly jobs report.
Today Brent crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $73.16 a barrel at 06:19 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 4 cents, or 0.1%, at $69.95 a barrel.
The move down in WTI was likely due to traders squaring positions ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August, on worries the report may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
On the financial side the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week to 340,000, its lowest level since the pandemic began.
This is a sign the job market is rebounding.
On this wake, forecasters expect the Labor Department numbers to show U.S. employers added 750,000 jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.2%.
That would be less than monthly average of 940,000 in June and July.
Thus, on Wall Street the benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 4,536.95.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% to 35,443.82.
The Nasdaq advanced 0.1% to a record 15,331.18.
Meantime Asian stock markets rose Friday as investors awaited U.S. hiring data.
In this context, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3,591.53 while the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 2% to 29,105.74.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong declined 0.5% to 25,948.28.
The Kospi in Seoul advanced 0.7% to 3,197.98 Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 added 0.6% to 7,527.90.
New Zealand and Jakarta rose while Singapore and Bangkok declined.
Coming back on grains market, we are seeing quieter moves as the trade starts to look forward to the long weekend.
Chicago markets, indeed, will be closed on Monday in the US with the holiday there.
Extended run US weather maps are holding dry across the majority of the US Corn Belt improving outlooks for early harvest as crops mature.
On this wake, StoneX revised their U.S. corn yield estimate to 177.5 bpa from 176.9 bpa in August.
StoneX also raised their monthly soybean yield estimated by 8 tenths to 50.8 bpa.
Meantime, USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 300,837 MT of old crop corn bookings were canceled during the week of 8/26.
The weekly update showed 529,328 MT were shipped during the week, leaving unshipped sales at 3.321 MMT.
Accumulated exports for 2020/21 were 66.702 MMT (2.626 bbu) according to weekly data with 5 days to add to.
New corn crop sales from the week that ended 8/26 were 1.159 MMT – within the expected range.
Total forward sales are 29% ahead of the same point going into the 2020/21 season with 20.442 MMT (804.776 mbu).
Of that, China holds 53% with 10.744 MMT on the books.
Monthly Census data confirmed 215.47 mbu of corn was shipped during July.
That was down from 249.5 mbu in June, and set the official MYTD shipment at 2.614 bbu.
To hit USDA’s 2.775 bbu August WASDE forecast, August shipments need to total 160 mbu.
About soybean, weekly Export Sales report had 68,224 MT of net old crop bean sales during the week ending 8/26. Outstanding sales were 1.941 MMT as of 8/26, with 60.287 MMT (2.215 bbu) shipped MYTD.
For new crop, USDA data showed 2.133 MMT were booked, which was above the 1.4 MMT expected.
China had bought 1.264 MMT for 21/22 delivery during the week, though just 394k MT were previously announced. Unknown purchasers also booked 654k MT though just 132,150 were reported in the daily system.
Total forward sales are still 26% behind last year’s pace at 17.75 MMT
Soymeal sales were reported at 414,285 MT, which was above the range of estimates.
For soy oil, USDA reported 4,855 MT were booked during the week that ended 8/26.
Monthly Census data confirmed July soybean exports were 34.75 mbu.
That was up 2.2% from June’s shipment but the lowest July export since 2014.
Accumulated MY exports for 20/21 beans were 2.217 bbu through July, with August exports needing to reach 42.66 mbu to hit the 2.26 bbu forecast from the August WASDE.
About the wheat, USDA’s Export Sales data showed 295,303 MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 8/26.
That was at the low end of estimates, but was up 154% from the previous week.
Mexico and Japan were the top buyers.
USDA’s report also mentioned 417,091 MT were shipped, with Mexico as the top destination.
Accumulated exports were 5.428 MMT, or 15% behind last season’s pace. Accumulated commitments were 24% behind last year at 9.423 MMT.
Monthly Census data reported July wheat exports were 75.37 mbu.
That was slightly above June but down 15% from July 2020.
Accumulated wheat exports through the first two months were 148.88 mbu, also down 13.4% from last season’s pace.
As we know, USDA will update their S&D forecasts next Friday.
From South America, Brazil exported 4.3 MMT of corn in August, nearly double the amount expected from a crop of 85 MMT and versus 2.8 MMT in 2018 when production was about 5 MMT less.
Brazil’s August soybean exports of 6.5 MMT were the 2nd highest on record for the month and 700 K more than the year ago total. Still, Brazil is in an enviable position with many U.S. Gulf facilities damaged from Ida as it has an estimated 8+MMT MORE beans on hand than a year ago.
Brazil soybean FOB values are up approximately 30 cents per bushel since Ida swept through the Gulf.
Brazilian farmers are said to be reluctant sellers in hopes of higher futures.
Most farmers probably fall into this category as futures have dropped over $.45 this week since Friday’s close of business.
Brazil weather will be dry in most of the Center-West and Center-South crop areas over the next 10 days, but showers may develop as mid-September approaches.
On this wake, StoneX estimated Brazil’s 2nd crop production at 59.1 MMT, down from their prior 59.6 MMT estimate.
Widespread rains over the last 24 hours across Argentina’s main farming regions have brought relief to wheat farmers ahead of the 2021/2022 harvest, improving production prospects after a drier than normal winter in the South American nation.
Around 70% of its central farming region and the province of Buenos Aires – the country’s wheat basket – received between 30 and 50 millimeters of rain.
The Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR) last month cut its 2021/22 wheat production estimate to 20.1 million tonnes due to the rain shortfall, but its expects another rain front to soak the Argentina plains in the second half of September, boding well for output.
The rains will also likely spur corn farmers to begin planting their crop earlier in September than normal.
Meantime, Argentine producers have so far sold about 38.7 million metric tons (MMT) of 20-21 crop corn, which is 3 million ahead of last year’s pace.
On European market, the confirmed strengthening of the euro against the current dollar does not seem to affect cereal prices for the moment.
Soft wheat marked only a little rise on Euronext at the end of the day on primarily technical considerations.
Wheat loads at the French ports remain limited, by the lack of quality wheat, while many cases are currently being handled by German exporters.
Indeed, French problems with poor new-crop wheat quality are opening up possibilities in new markets following the success of German wheat in France’s big market in North Africa, as there are moves to sell German wheat in sub-Saharan Africa and the first successes arrived.
One ship has just sailed from Germany with about 40,000 tonnes of wheat for Nigeria and another is loading 23,000 tonnes for Guinea.
Additionally, German wheat was expected to be used to source part of a tender purchase this week by Algerian state grains agency OAIC, estimated at nearly 500,000 tonnes.
In this context, standard 12% protein wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale at around 9 euros over Paris December.
Buyers were seeking about 8 euros over.
Corn prices, on their parts, for the new harvest have changed little.
Conversely, oilseeds market benefited from the sharp recovery of Malaysian palm and crude oil.
Since the start of the week, rapeseed prices had declined, pushing them to get closer to technical support points.
Meanwhile, a rebound on the level of 565 € / t for the November 2021 contract on Euronext was observed yesterday, thus allowing to approach the resistance zone of 575 € / t and thus erase the recent downward movement.
From the Black Sea basin, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Ukraine has exported 9.14 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2021/22 July-June season versus 8.04 million at the same point a year earlier.
That included almost 5 million tonnes of wheat, 2.84 million tonnes of barley and 1.27 million tonnes of corn.
Ukraine plans to thresh a record 80.6 million tonnes of grain in 2021, up from 65 million tonnes in 2020. The export may jump to 60.7 million tonnes in 2021/22 from 44.7 million in 2020/21.
Meantime, this week farms had almost completed the 2021 wheat harvest, threshing 32.52 million tonnes from 99.4% of the sowing area, with a yield of 4.62 tonnes per hectare.
The government has said grain exports could include 23.8 million tonnes of wheat, 30.9 million tonnes of corn and 5.2 million tonnes of barley.
Meantime, sunflower harvesting has started on the Black Sea.
The first reports on yields are correct for the moment both in Romania and Ukraine.
Production prospects are expected to be good given the recorded increases in plantings.
The prices of Ukrainian sunflowers, denominated in grivna, are posted up sharply compared to last year at the same time with an increase of around + 39% compared to 2020 and + 66% compared to 2019.
The tension observed on an international scale on the market for other vegetable oils brings a price support factor during this period of the start of the harvest.
Drought-hit Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest grain producer, has threshed 6.3 million tonnes of grains from more than 49% of its total sown area, the local Agriculture Ministry said.
Kazakhstan said last month it expected its 2021 grain crop to fall by 24% year on year to 15.3 million tonnes after drought hit main producing regions.
From Australia, local trade saw mostly domestic short-term old crop interest and limited new crop movements.
Participants continue to evaluate crop ideas and watch recent weather.
Extended run weather maps forecast dry weather across the country into mid-Sept in one of the driest model runs we’ve seen in quite a while.
Meantime, Australia exported 1,954,516 tonnes of wheat in July, down 29 per cent from the 2,765,805t shipped in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Bulk shipments, at 1,667,021t in July, were down 37pc from 2,648,924t in June.
The biggest July destinations were Indonesia, 656,623t, China, 255,401t and The Philippines on 136,402t.
Containerised exports at 287,495t rose a startling 146pc in July from the 116,881t shipped in June, with Thailand on 77,373t, Vietnam on 59,778t and Malaysia on 53,177t the biggest markets for the month.
The jump in containerised exports over July is thought to reflect the attractive pricing of high-protein wheat out of Australia at a time when the fierce summer had impacted comparable Canadian and northern US grades.
Australia’s July 2021 wheat-export figure is more than four times the 436,507t shipped in July 2020, and the volume increase demonstrates the ability of eastern states to keep shipping into the back months of the export year following the breaking of the drought.
Exporters are running down their stocks as another big crop is coming in all states of Australia, and global markets look to supplement shipments from Northern Hemisphere exporters at a time when Australian wheat normally struggles to compete on price.
Internationally, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
GASC bought 19kmt of sunoil at $1,240/mt CFR Egypt, on payment at sight from Viterra and 10kmt of soyoil at $1,310/mt CFR Egypt, on a payment at sight from Belluno.
The delivery is in late October.
Also they bought 34kmt of soyoil from locals Watanya, C3M, and Maged at $1,303.93/mt CFR Egypt.
Jordan issues new tender to buy 120,000 tonnes wheat.
The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Sept. 8.
Jordan buys about 60,000 tonnes feed barley in tender
It was bought at an estimated $317.00 a tonne c&f for shipment in the second half of October.
Seller was believed to be trading house Viterra.
We wish you a good day.
