PRODUCTION
2020/21 wheat production is forecast at 134 million tons, down 1 million tons from official figures due to weather damage before harvest.
The National Food Administration said on Dec 14 that winter wheat production is expected to achieve an overall bumper harvest again this year.
However, industry reported the overall wheat quantity and quality are both worse than 2019/20, but better than 2018/19.
Wheat protein and gluten levels were affected by the weather-impacted shortened growing season.
Industry predicts a larger portion of wheat is not qualified to enter the reserve for food use and will go to the feed market.
TRADE
In 2020/21 wheat imports are forecast at 6.0 million tons, 1.5 million higher than the previous year based on industry indications about purchases.
2019/20 wheat imports reached the 4.5 million tons based on market data.
Customs data indicate that China imported 1.63 million tons of wheat from January to April 2020, up 30.7 percent year-on-year.
In the first 6 months of 2020, COFCO reportedly imported :
1.2 million tons of Canadian wheat,
1 million tons of Australian wheat,
1.3 million tons of U.S. wheat, and a combined
1 million tons from France, Lithuania and Kazakhstan.
CONSUMPTION
In 2020/21 total wheat consumption is forecast at 127 million tons, up 2 million tons from the last year on higher feed use.
2020/21 feed use is forecast at 19 million tons, up 2 million ton from the last year , based on comparatively higher volumes of feed-quality wheat being available.
According to industry sources, the record high for annual feed use is 35 million tons.
In a typical year, between 9 and 14 million tons of new crop wheat are used for feed.
END YEAR STOCKS
In 2020/21 ending stocks are forecast to drop to nearly 163.8 million tons, down 800,000 tons from the last report, based on less production and higher feed wheat consumption.
