Wheat
Production in 2020/21 campaign is estimated at 17.5 million tons .
The wheat harvest, which finished this past week, is the smallest in five years.
Unusually dry and cold conditions during much of the production cycle in the central northern wheat area reduced the harvest by 3.5 million tons.
In the core production areas in Buenos Aires province, though, adequate soil moisture produced yields higher than in previous years.
Industry harvest estimates currently range between 16.5-17.5 million metric tons.
Estimates wheat exports at 11.3 million tons, 700,000 tons less than last year [ This volume includes wheat flour converted to wheat equivalent.]
Exports are being closely monitored by government officials concerned with maintaining domestic supply to avoid higher local prices as export commitments responded strongly to high international prices.
Farmers had sold more than 13 million tons of the new crop by January 2020 in anticipation of an export tax increase and the volume of export declarations remained consistent during the marketing year which ended in November 2020.
To date, exporters have purchased roughly 7.2 million tons of crop 2020/21, almost half the amount purchased a year ago with export declarations also a little less than half the amount in early 2020.
Ending wheat stocks are expected to be plentiful.
Brazil will remain the top export market for Argentine wheat with roughly 5.5 million tons.
Brazil recently passed Decree 10,557 which would reduce Brazil’s tariff on non Mercosur wheat imports from 10.5 to 0% for 750,000 tons of imported wheat.
In an article published January 13, 2021, by the Argentine newspaper La Nacion, Brazilian President Bolsonaro reportedly reassured the Argentine Ambassador to Brazil, that it would not reduce its purchases of Argentine wheat.
East and North African countries are the next largest markets after Brazil.
Indonesia and Bangladesh are expected to increase purchases from Australia to Argentina’s detriment.
Australia’s bountiful crop and aggressive pursuit of recent slumps in export market share are expected to challenge Argentina’s wheat exports.
Other Argentinian grains 2020-21
Barley production is set at 3.85 million tons, 150,000 tons higher than official following unexpected higher yields, with exports forecast at 2.6 million tons.
Forecasts corn production in 2020/21 at 47.0 million tons, 500,000 tons lower than expected due to drought damage.
Corn consumption is forecast at 14.4 million tons, 600,000 tons .
Sorghum exports in 2020/21 are forecast at 1.4 million tons, 400,000 tons higher than USDA official, on strong demand from China.
