Rumors on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine sent oil and wheat prices spiraling lower.
US farm markets, indeed, failed to move the needle up, despite some supportive data from WASDE March report, released yesterday.
Corn prices posted sharp losses, down 2.6%.
Soybeans were down more then 1% by the close.
Soymeal close above $500/ton in March contract, though May prices closed only $1.40 or 0.3% higher.
May soy oil settled 2.11% lower.
Wheat complex suffered limit-down losses.
Indeed, nearby CBOT and KC contracts were locked the 85 cent limit lower, down 6.61% and 7.09% respectvely.
They will have expanded limits of $1.30 on this morning.
MPLS was 5.24% lower, as May down the 60 cent limit.
In energy market, yesterday Brent crude slumped 13% (its biggest one-day drop in nearly two years), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 12.5% (the biggest daily decline since November).
A high-level delegation from Washington took a trip to Caracas over the weekend, and it would appear that relations between Venezuela and the U.S. may have warmed a touch.
While nothing was announced concerning the resumption of energy trade, the discussions were described as “respectful, cordial and very diplomatic.”
So much so that Venezuela has released two Americans that had been arrested on charges of corruption and spying back in 2019.
UAE’s ambassador to Washington said his country will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher output to fill the supply gap.
Talks set for Thursday between Russia and Ukraine’s foreign ministers in Turkey also gave the market reason for pause.
However, oil prices rose again on this morning in a volatile trade.
Oil market, indeed, is confused and we are in an unprecedented situation.
Despite, UAE’s ambassador to Washington statement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Twitter late on Wednesday, his country is committed to the existing agreement by the OPEC+, to ramp up oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day monthly.
The United States does not have the will to reach an agreement to revive a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran at talks in Vienna where it is insisting on “unacceptable proposals”, Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani, said on Thursday.
China’s National Development and Reform Commission has asked oil companies holding export quotas to suspend April gasoline and gasoil exports to ensure plentiful domestic supplies, as soaring international oil prices stoke inflation worries, several sources with knowledge of the matter said March 9.
The request by the country’s top economic planning body is not entirely binding, but quota holders usually comply with the NDRC.
Oil firms can appeal to the commission to restore exports when the market demand and supply balance change.
The country’s consumer price index increased 0.6% month on month and 0.9% year on year in February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics March 9.
China has set a 2022 CPI target of below 3%.
The country’s oil product exports, comprising gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel and fuel oil, slumped 33% year on year to 7.3 million mt over January-February, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil, fuel stockpiles fell last week, adding to the worries over already tight global supplies.
Crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week to March 4 to 411.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 657,000-barrel drop.
U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 577.5 million barrels, the lowest since July 2002.
Thus, Brent crude futures were up $2.53, or 2.28%, at $113.67 a barrel at 06:51 GMT after trading in about a $5 range.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.64, or 1.51%, at $110.34 a barrel, after trading in a $4 range.
In the freight market, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index hit its highest in nearly three months on Wednesday, helped by a jump in rates across its vessel segments.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize shipping vessels, indeed, rose 206 points to 2,558 points, its highest since Dec. 15.
Particularly, the capesize index gained 386 points, or 20.4% to 2,282 points, its highest since Jan. 11.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased $3,207 to $18,928.
The panamax index was up 153 points at 3,194 points.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, increased $1,377 to $28,744.
The supramax index rose 112 points, its highest in more than four months, to 2,845 points.
In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Wednesday rallied sharply and garnered carry-over support from a surge of more than +7% in the Euro Stoxx 50.
European stocks surged on optimism that the negative effects of the war in Ukraine are already priced into the market.
Stocks also found support after a top foreign policy aide to Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Ukraine is open to discussing Russia’s neutrality demand as long as its given security guarantees.
In addition, inflation concerns eased after WTI and Brent crude oil plunged.
Also, Wednesday’s U.S. economic data was bullish, as U.S. Labor Department reported that businesses posted a near-record level of open jobs, fell -185,000 to 11.263 million, in January, and stronger than expectations of 10.950 million.
This trend helping push up worker’s pay and adding to inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy
Russia said it will keep its stock market closed indefinitely.
On Wednesday, the offshore ruble traded at 136.90 rubles/USD, moderately above Monday’s record low of 177.36 rubles/USD.
Fitch Ratings cut Russia’s sovereign debt rating to the second-lowest level and said a bond default is “imminent” because of the country’s financial isolation.
European stocks rallied even more than the U.S. market.
Germany’s DAX jumped 7.9% and France’s CAC 40 rose 7.1%.
European economies, indeed, rely more heavily on Russian oil and gas supplies and face a bigger potential shock from the war.
That might prompt European governments to use more economic stimulus, which pushes up stock prices.
In this context, on Wall Street, the gains were broad-based, with nearly 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 rising, led by technology companies.
Some of the strongest moves came from airlines, travel companies and other stocks that bounced back from steep drops on worries about fuel costs and the economy.
Among Wednesday’s few decliners were oil-related companies. Halliburton fell 5.2%, though it still is up 52% for 2022.
Thus, on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose +2.57% to 4,277.88, for its biggest daily gain in 12 years.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2% to 33,286.25 and the Nasdaq composite gained 3.6% to 13,255.55.
Meantime, Asian shares surged on Thursday, tracking Wall Street’s gains as planned diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine buoyed risk-on sentiment, although analysts warned the rally could be susceptible to a sharp reversal.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.6%, pulling away from the lowest level since November 2020.
Japan’s Nikkei rallied 3.8% to 25,697.20, the most in nearly 21 months.
Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.6% to 3,307.68.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong advanced 1.7% to 20,978.26.
The Kospi in Seoul jumped 2.1% to 2,678.11 as trading resumed after a day off for South Korea’s presidential election.
Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 added 1.4% to 7,150.50.
New Zealand and Southeast Asian markets also advanced.
In currency markets, the euro was trading at $1.1054 after jumping 1.6% on Wednesday, its best day since June 2016, along with gains in European stocks and a sell off in bonds, while the safe haven yen , slipped to a one-month low of 116 per dollar.
The dollar index was at 98.144, after tumbling 1.2% overnight amid the euro’s surge, and hurt, along with the yen, by a rise in sentiment towards riskier assets like equities.
On the weather side, with the exception of the Dakotas, more wet weather will land on large parts of the Midwest and Plains between today and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.
The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally dry weather returning to the Central Plains between March 16 and March 22, with widespread warmer-than-normal conditions for most of the central U.S..
On the demand side, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, ethanol production saw moderate improvements this past week, up 31k bpd and reaching a daily average of 1.028 million barrels for the week ending March 4.
That was the highest weekly output since late January.
Ethanol stocks firmed 1.4% or 338k barrels to 25.271 million, from a week ago and are 14.5% higher year-over-year.
Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, analysts estimate 0.5-1.2 MMT in old crop bookings in the week ending March 3.
New crop is seen at 50,000-700,000 MT.
As for soybean, is expected to show 0.9-1.7 MMT in old crop sales during the week of 3/3, with new crop in a range of 0.9-1.5 MMT.
Meal sales are seen at 75,000-400,000 MT, with bean oil expected at 0-40,000 MT.
All wheat export sales are expected to be in a range of 200,000-400,000 MT for old crop and 50,000-300,000 MT for the week ending March 3.
Meanwhile, private exporters reported to the USDA sales of 100,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2021/2022 marketing year and sales of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
In this context, corn basis bids were steady to firm after improving 2 to 10 cents across five Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm across the central U.S. after rising 2 to 6 cents higher at four Midwestern locations.
Funds were net sellers yesterday in wheat for 16,000 lots, corn for 20,000 lots and soybeans for 10,000 lots.
In Europe, we have seen a divergence on Euronext between rising 2021 harvest quotations and declining 2022 harvest quotations for all products.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2021/22 marketing year are tracking slightly below last year’s pace after reaching 11,48 0,96 MMT through March 6.
As for soybean, imports have reached 9.27 MMT.
That’s moderately below last year’s pace so far.
EU soymeal imports are also down moderately year-over-year, with 10.96 million metric tons since last July.
Rapeseed imports within the EU are posted on March 6 at 3.53 million tonnes against 4.66 last year.
Soft wheat exports have reached 18.55 million tonnes through March 6, which is slightly behind last year’s pace of 18.86 MMT.
EU barley exports are also tracking slightly lower year-over-year, with 5.46 million tonnes against 5.57 last year.
Meantime, farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased sharply its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union, as the war may prevent up to 12-14 million tonnes of previously expected Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports in the rest of 2021/22, Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grains unit, told reporters.
French soft wheat exports in 2021/22 were seen at 9.7 million tonnes, up from 8.9 million estimated in February, FranceAgriMer said.
That led the office to reduce its projection of French soft wheat stocks by the end of the season in June to 3.0 million tonnes from 3.6 million last month.
The reduced stocks forecast left potential for another 500,000 to 1 million tonnes in further French exports, Zribi said, but said exports would depend on domestic demand and the uncertain impact of the conflict in Ukraine.
For French soft wheat exports within the 27-member EU, FranceAgriMer kept its forecast for 2021/22 unchanged from the previous month at 7.8 million tonnes.
The office reduced its outlook for domestic use of soft wheat in livestock feed this season by 250,000 tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes, reflecting high wheat prices and difficulties for livestock production, partly because of bird flu outbreaks.
For barley and maize, the office kept unchanged its projections for 2021/22 end of season stocks at 1.4 million and 2.0 million tonnes, respectively.
The maize balance sheet included a 237,000 tonne upward revision to harvest supply, offset by a 220,000 tonne increase to expected exports within the EU as French supplies were sought to replace Ukrainian maize, FranceAgriMer said.
On the other hand, Spain’s Agriculture Minister Luis Planas told lawmakers on Wednesday he is lobbying the European Commission to bend rules on pesticides in agricultural imports to be able to buy corn from Argentina to plug shortages from Ukraine.
Planas said there was “no risk” from traces of chemicals in Argentine maize and that Spain urgently required more animal feed.
“We have stock available but we need to make purchases in third countries in the next 60 days,” he told the Spanish parliamentary agricultural committee.
Italian firms can source durum wheat from Canada, the Italian industry ministry said in a statement following meetings on Wednesday with various firms and associations.
The statement added that alternative suppliers for clay, iron and sunflower seeds had not yet been found.
Serbia announced on Wednesday it will ban exports of wheat, corn, flour and cooking oil as of Thursday to counter price increases.
Yara, one of the world’s largest fertiliser makers, said on Wednesday it was curtailing its ammonia and urea output in Italy and France.
The Norwegian company warned last week that the conflict was threatening global food supplies.
Meantime, non-commercial market participants lifted their net long position in Euronext’s milling wheat futures and options in the week to March 4, data published by Euronext on Wednesday showed.
Non-commercial participants, which include investment funds and financial institutions, increased their net long position to 190,000 contracts from 167,212 a week earlier, the data showed.
Commercial participants, meanwhile, raised their net short position to 208,505 contracts from 176,724 a week earlier.
Commercials’ short positions accounted for 69.4% of the total short position, while commercial long positions accounted for 35.3% of total long positions.
Non-commercial short positions represented 30.6% of total short positions, while non-commercial net long positions accounted for 64.7% of the total longs.
In Euronext’s rapeseed futures and options, non-commercial market participants reduced their net long position to 3,158 contracts from 3,171 a week earlier.
Commercial participants lowered their net short position in rapeseed to 4,720 contracts from 5,786 a week earlier.
From North Africa, Egypt has strategic reserves of wheat sufficient to cover its needs for 4 months and will not need to tap the international market for grain until the end of the year, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Wednesday in a televised address.
Egypt aims to procure 5-5.5 million tonnes of local wheat from its harvest set to begin mid-April by providing fresh incentives to farmers such as quicker payments, which will be announced in coming days, he added.
From the Black Sea basin, Bulgaria will buy out 1.1 million tonnes of wheat from its farmers to ensure the Black Sea country’s food supply, deputy Prime Minister Assen Vassilev said.
Vassilev said the government has earmarked 1.1 billion levs ($616.32 million), which will be used also to buy corn and sunflower seeds to ensure production of sunflower cooking oil and enough grain for stock breeders.
“Bulgaria has about 3 million tonnes of wheat and about 300,000 tonnes are in the state reserves. The government decided today to buy 1.1 million tonnes of wheat – both milling wheat and feed wheat,” Vassilev told reporters.
Vassilev repeated the Black Sea country has not imposed a ban on grain exports, but said that customs officers will continue to carry out extensive checks on grain exporters.
Grain producers have said the administrative checks were slowing grain exports and saw them as an attempt by the government to hamper them.
($1 = 1.7848 leva).
Grain supplies in Romania, a major exporter, have also tightened as international buyers seek alternatives to Russia or Ukrainian supplies although there are currently no plans to restrict shipments.
Ukraine’s government will create a food reserve big enough to feed the country’s people and armed forces during the war, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said late on Wednesday, according to the government press service.
“The state will redeem grain and other stocks in the volumes of annual consumption by the whole country at the expense of the state budget,” the press service quoted Shmygal as saying.
“This will provide the country with enough food,” Shmygal said, without providing additional details.
Ukraine could sharply reduce the area sown for 2022’s grain harvest, creating shortages for the rest of the world as well as Ukraine.
The country, which traditionally starts spring field planting preparations in late February or early March, has said farmers will start sowing in safe areas, but could face a shortage of fuel and seeds.
Meantime, in Russia, according to feedback from regional Agrarian Departments, most regions of the country are getting ready for the spring sowing though in the south of Russia seasonal field works started at the end of January.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, this year, spring sowing will be carried out on 53.6 million hectares.
The agricultural department expects to expand wheat crops by 818.1 thousand hectares, up to 29.53 million hectares, corn – by 34 thousand hectares, up to 3 million hectares, buckwheat – by 54.1 thousand hectares, up to more than 1 million hectares.
The area of oilseeds, according to experts’ expectations, can also increase.
The seed availability situation for the spring sowing season is under control.
According to official data, the southern regions are at least 70% supplied with seed material.
However, farmers are worried about the availability of imported seeds due to the rapid withdrawal of foreign producers from the Russian market.
On the other hand, through March 3, Russia’s 2021/22 wheat exports have reached 22,8 MMT, a year-over-year decline of 30.7% so far, per the country’s agriculture ministry.
Russian barley exports are also down 32.6% versus last year’s pace.
However, Russia’s prime minister stressed that due to international sanctions, the country needs to focus on keeping domestic supplies in the country to avoid future shortages.
Particularly, Russia must prioritize grain supplies to domestic bakeries over export markets, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said.
Meantime, he unveiled fresh measures to support the domestic economy on Wednesday in the face of international sanctions over Ukraine.
The government would provide agriculture producers with short-term loans under preferential rates worth over 160 billion roubles, so they have ‘everything needed for successful sowing campaign amid increased food demand on global markets.’
Among other measures, Mishustin said that the government would cut tax on light vehicles, allow some companies not to disclose their corporate documents and remove income tax on deposits.
It would also try to help Russian airlines to keep their foreign fleets and retaliate against countries banning Russian ships entrance to their ports.
From the Middle Kingdom, China’s agriculture minister said over the past weekend that the country’s wheat crop conditions could be the worst in history.
Beijing has cut off data streams and shut down Chinese analysts within the past year to prevent the spread of possibly compromising supply and demand information to global traders and analysts.
China’s wheat crop is the largest in the world, three times larger than the U.S. crop and almost 80% larger than Russia.
Beijing keeps plentiful state stockpiles of wheat and incentivizes farmers to continue production by supporting prices, all intended to ensure food security.
In the last two years as domestic consumption surged without matching production, along with a general drawdown of grain supplies in the country and rising global prices.
China’s huge corn and wheat imports cover less than 10% of its annual demand.
President Xi Jinping, discussing food security over the weekend, said grains should be imported “appropriately,” but China “must not rely on the international market.”
Last month China approved imports of Russian wheat and barley, part of a larger trade agreement including oil and energy that was hatched at the start of the Beijing Olympics.
Meantime, China has allocated 1.6 billion yuan ($253 million) to strengthen field management for winter wheat, the country’s finance ministry said, in an effort to bolster security of food supply.
Part of the money will be used to stabilise output of winter wheat in five main production regions, including Hebei and Shandong provinces, where planting of the grain was delayed, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on its website.
The central government will also allocate the money to about a dozen main production regions to prevent and control the impact off extreme weather on wheat.
($1 = 6.3142 Chinese yuan renminbi).
From South East Asia, Indian traders have sewn up deals to export half a million tonnes of wheat in recent days, and dealers are expected to sign more contracts to take advantage of record-high global prices.
India is the only major global supplier of wheat at this point, thanks to massive surplus stocks at home.
The rally in global prices and a record slump in the Indian rupee against the dollar also make wheat shipments attractive to Indian sellers.
Indian warehouses are brimming with wheat after five consecutive record harvests – largely a result of favourable weather, but also thanks to the introduction of high-yielding seed varieties and state-set support prices for growers.
Wheat harvests will again scale new peaks in 2022, with farmers set to harvest 111.32 million tonnes from next month, up from the previous year’s 109.59 million.
Wheat stocks at government warehouses total 28.27 million tonnes against a target of 13.8 million tonnes.
Robust demand from Asian buyers such as Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and the Philippines allows India to supply wheat at lower freight rates.
India can also supply wheat to the Middle East at lower freight costs than many other sellers.
Also, of late India has been able to dispel concerns about the quality of its wheat as Indian scientists have introduced many high-protein varieties suitable for pasta and pizza dough.
Indian traders and government officials also cite an increase in cargo handling capacity at Indian ports as another help.
But traders say an increase in internal freight costs to transport grain from major wheat-producing states to ports, and a potential shortage of railway wagons, could impede exports.
Indonesia tightened curbs on palm oil exports, adding to a growing list of key producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders.
Palm oil is the world’s most widely used vegetable oil and is used in the manufacture of many products including biscuits, margarine, laundry detergents and chocolate.
Palm oil prices have risen by more than 50% this year.
Indonesia’s Trade Minister Muhammad Lufti said the export curbs aimed to ensure that cooking oil prices at home remain affordable to consumers.
From Australia, prices for barley, wheat and sorghum have lifted across the board in the past week by up to $25 per tonne as export shorts look to fill slots amid challenging logistics, particularly into Brisbane and Port Kembla.
The rally has seen domestic consumers ratchet back buying to a bare minimum.
In the north, a market for sorghum downgraded by recent rain appears to be developing, while in the south, consumers have seen a resurgence in interest in barley for export which has galvanising their commitment to SFW wheat in rations.
Parts of coastal New South Wales have been seriously impacted by flooding in the past week, and in terms of grain movement, Port Kembla is affected, with rail access cut and the loading of export vessels now at least one week behind schedule.
Meantime, local wheat bids dropped A$5/t yesterday, with liquidity limited in east coast trading, while South Australian and Western Australian markets contined to tick along.
Wheat markets were left with a wide bid-offer spread, or just offered.
Barley values continued to hold and were relatively unchanged again for the day.
We saw some trading activity for malting barley in Victoria at premiums holding at $34-40/t above feed.
Canola markets strengthened yesterday, with trade activity strong through the east coast and delivered port bids pushing up to $990/t levels for up and coming demand.
On the international trade scene, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it would seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and to arrive in Japan by Aug. 25.
It said it would seek the grain via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on March 16.
Japan buys and sells its feed wheat and barley via so-called SBS auctions, in which end-users and importers specify the origin, price and quantity of grain, allowing millers to meet their varied needs for the feed grain.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started purchasing optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender.
Initial estimates of the purchase price were around $485 a tonne c&f.
The volume initially bought was unclear.
The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was Tuesday when Euronext fell after recently touching record highs, and negotiations were postponed to Wednesday, when Euronext rose sharply again.
The wheat was sought for shipment in two periods from the main supply regions including Europe: May 1-15 and May 16-31. If sourced from South America or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.
Algeria does not release results of its tenders and reports are based on trade estimates.
In its last soft wheat tender reported on Feb. 17, Algeria purchased about 700,000 tonnes largely at around $345.50 to $346.50 a tonne c&f.
Traders said as of March 3 Algeria would allow French wheat imports in March because of disruption to Black Sea shipments, overturning a recent exclusion that had hit the EU’s biggest wheat exporter.
Thus, traders said French wheat had been accepted in this week’s tender.
MARCH WASDE REPORT RECAP
Corn
USDA cut old crop carryout by 100 mbu, now forecasted as 1.440 bbu.
Corn exports were raised by 75 mbu with a 25 mbu boost to ethanol – now seen totaling 2.5 bbu and 5.35 bbu respectively.
Brazil’s corn production was estimated at 114 MMT, which was unchanged from Feb.
In Argentina, USDA trimmed off 1 MMT for a 53 MMT crop.
Despite the increase to US shipments, USDA trimmed the global trade by 3.77 MMT.
That boosted the U.S. market share by 1.5% points to 31.7%.
Losing on exports was Ukraine, with a 6 MMT drop to 27.5 MMT.
Global corn supplies were revised down by 1.2 million tonnes to 300.97 MMT, compared to 302.22 MMT last month.
USDA set the average corn cash price for the marketing year as $5.65, with a 20 cent boost from Jan.
They also raised sorghum’s expected cash price by 35 cents to $5.80.
Soybeans
The March WASDE data showed a 40 mbu soybean export increase to 2.09 bbu.
That was reflected in a 40 mbu tighter carryout of 285 mbu.
Despite the domestic export boost, USDA trimmed global soy trade by 6.4 MMT to 158.63 MMT.
That upped the U.S. market share by 2% points to 35.85%.
Argentina and Brazil were each trimmed on a lighter production figure.
Chinese imports were cut by 3 MMT to 94 MMT.
For global soy stocks, USDA went with 89.96 MMT. That was 2.87 MMT tighter than Feb.
South American production was cut a total of 9.5 MMT.
Brazil was cut by 7 MMT to 127 million.
Argentina was cut by 1.5 MMT to 43.5 MMT.
Paraguay was also cut by another 1 MMT to just 5.3 MMT – a 10-yr low for them.
The USDA projected soybean cash prices were raised by 25 cents in beans to $13.25, 2 cents, in soy oil to 68 cents/lb, and $10 for meal to $420/ton.
Wheat
USDA actually trimmed their forecast for wheat exports by 10 mbu to 800 flat.
That was mainly via a 5 mbu cut to HRW and SRW respectively.
Spring wheat stocks were trimmed by 5 mbu to 124.
Total wheat carryout was estimated at 653 mbu, which was up by 5.
Global stocks were raised by 3.3 MMT to 281.5, though the average pre trade guess was to see 277.5 MMT.
Global wheat trade was reduced by 3.6 MMT to 203.1, with a 3 MMT cut to Russia now seen to 32 million and a 4 MMT cut to the Ukraine, now seen to 20.0 million.
Of that 7 MMT reduction, India and Australia are seen picking up some of the slack with a 1.5 MMT boost and a 2 MMT boost respectively.
USDA set the average cash price another 20 cents higher at $7.50.
That’s all.
To all of you I wish you a good day.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
