Waiting for the end of the year, we realize that Santa Claus brought many nice gifts into US farm markets at Christmas Eve.
Indeed, corn prices were up 2,11% past week, getting to the highest price for the front month futures since July 1st ahead of that Independence Day break.
Soybeans rose 3.64% for the week.
However, the brightest star was the soybean meal that was another sharp 7% higher back to the levels not seen since mid May.
Soy oil waited befor to enjoi at uptrend to start the week, but ultimately recovered a nice 2.89% on the week.
All the wheat complex was higher for the week, with a 6.36% gain in the KC market.
Chicago was up a net 5.13% from last Friday.
However spring wheat in Minny was just 0.98% higher Friday to Thursday.
Particularly, CBOT corn futures were up 12,5 cents to $6.06/bu.
CBOT soybean futures were up 46,8 cents at $13.32/bu.
Soymeal jumped by $26,6/smt at $406,10 smt.
Soy oil gained $1.56 cents at $55.44
CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures rose 39.8 cents to close at $8.15/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures jumped 51.50 cents to end at $8.62/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures lifted 10 cents to close at $10.33/bu.
In this context, as of December 23, 2021, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $282/mt (up $9/mt from last week).
US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $535/mt (up $23/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $394/mt (up $25/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $349/mt (up $16/mt from last week).
USDA’s look at past week’s average cash corn oil prices show the localities ranged from 53.67 c/lb – 55.25 cents.
Those compared to 53 c/lb – 54.71 cents/lb from last week.
Cash ethanol bids ranged from $2.60/gal in KC to $3.15/gal in WI.
Those compare to 2.72/gal – $3.15/ prices from past week, but are still above gasoline futures which were $2.1889/gal.
As for DDGS bids, the weekly update showed NOLA was mixed ranging from $-4 to +$10/MT from last week to between $230- $255, while the FOB from PNW was up $5 to $288/MT.
Also, USDA reported the average B100 cash biodiesel prices were $4.72/gallon for the week that ended 12/24 down $ 0.21 from prior week.
Meantime, corn basis bids trended a penny higher at an Ohio elevator while falling 1 to 4 lower at three other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. Thursday.
Soybean basis bids trended 5 cents lower at three Midwestern processors and firmed 6 cents higher at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
In energy markets, oil prices bounced last week on signs that the worst effects of the Omicron variant might be more containable than previously feared, even as many countries imposed travel restrictions on surging infection levels.
The Omicron variant, indeed, is more transmissible than previous coronavirus variants, but early data suggests it causes a milder level of illness.
Thus, after a three-day rally on Friday in light trading before the Christmas holidays Brent crude futures settled 71 cents lower at $76.14 a barrel at the early close of 13:00 GMT, rising anyway by about 3% on the week.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures on Thursday ended up $1.03, or 1.4%, at $73.79 a barrel, to rise 4.1% on the week.
Volume was light on Thursday, with just 244,000 front-month contracts trading, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, compared with a daily average of 381,000 contracts over the last 200 days.
The market now is focusing on next steps by OPEC+ and the impact of the Omicron variant.
Consequebtially, oil prices were mixed on this morning, with Brent edging up while U.S. crude futures slipped after airlines called off thousands of flights in the United States over Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 infections.
Thus U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.38 a barrel by 00:53 GMT.
Brent crude rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.54 a barrel.
On the freight market, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index fell for the eleventh session last Thursday, as weaker capesize rates overshadowed gains in the panamax vessel segment.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, shedded 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,219, its lowest level since April 14.
The main index lost 6.7% for the week.
The capesize index dropped 104 points, or 4.2%, to its lowest since end-March at 2,351.
It posted a 13.8% weekly decline.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased by $869 to $19,494.
The panamax index added 131 points, or 5.5%, to its highest in a week at 2,515. It fell 2.9% past week.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which ferry 60,000-70,000 tonne coal or grain cargoes, increased by $1,178 to $22,638.
The supramax index fell 34 points to its lowest level in a month at 2,303.
In equities markets, U.S. stocks rallied again on Thursday, in spite weekly U.S. economic data were mixed.
In fact, on Wall Street the S&P rose to 4,725.79, surpassing its Dec. 10 record and ending up 2.3% for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35,950.56, gaining for the week 1,65%.
The Nasdaq composite finished the week at 15,653.37 with weekly gains around 3,2%.
Stock markets in Europe and Asia cemented gains in light holiday trade on Friday.
Meantime, Asian shares were mixed on this morning at the outset of the last trading week of the year.
In fact, the Shanghai Composite index rose 0.2% to 3,623.58, while Thailand’s SET was nearly unchanged.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost 0.2% to 28,722.87 and the Kospi in Seoul declined 0.3% to 3,004.92.
India’s Sensex slipped 0.3% to 56,935.80.
Markets were closed in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Australia.
On the weather side, the latest updates to the U.S. Drought Monitor, out last Wedsneday, showed overly dry conditions are now present in 87.4% of the High Plains through December 21, up from 84.4% a week earlier.
That was significant but still below year-ago results of 96.2%.
The Midwest was also experiencing some problems in areas such as Minnesota, Wisconsin and eastern Iowa.
Around 38.7% of the region was affected.
In this context, wheat prices continued to benefit from drought in the Southern Plains, where a significant portion of the HRW (Hard Red Winter) variety is grown.
From South America, dry conditions developing, continued to support corn and soybean prices.
Brazil’s state ag acency for Parana, Deral, meantime, reported their 2nd crop corn output at 15.1 MMT with 3.7 MMT from the first crop harvest.
CONAB had the states output at 3.53 MMT and 11.4 MMT in their official December data.
Also, Brazil’s Panara state ag agency, Deral, reported the soy crop 12% lower citing dryness.
They reduced the Parana state yield 7.7% under last year with a 1% boost to area for a net 18.4 MMT crop.
CONAB had Panara beans at 21.6 MMT in their official December data.
Heavier rains are expected in January, but some Brazilian farmers are already worried that the amount will disrupt soybean pod ripening and harvest.
The latest forecasts point to some showers in these regions in the next two weeks, “but nothing that will change the fact that everything is generally quite dry,” commented Jack Scoville, analyst at Price Futures Group.
Meantime, according to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange Argentina could harvest 21.5 million tonnes of wheat this year.
The harvests are carried out up to 78.3%.
The stock exchange estimates the next corn crop at 57 million tonnes and soybean crop at 44 million.
Meantime, farmers in Argentina have sold 36.3 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans – agriculture ministry said.
Argentine farmers are now planting 2021/22 soy.
In this context, as of December 23, 2021 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $317, down $1 from last week.
Argentina corn feed was up $8 for the week, closing at $265.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was at $280, up $6 from past week.
Argentina barley feed, was unchanged week on week, posting at $302.
Argentina soybean was up $19 at $577.
Brazilian soybean rose $6 finishing the week at $524.
In Europe, wheat and corn prices were stable but still at a high level early Friday afternoon in the traditionally quiet European market on Christmas Eve.
The wheat contract indeed, had eased back from Thursday’s two-week high of 293.25 euros but held the 290 euro chart level and showed a 4.2% gain for the week.
Volumes were extremely light in the reduced session that ended at 13:00 GMT, for around 2,500 lots traded .
Corn prices gained 25 cents on Friday, to close at 244 euros per tonne on the maturity of January for 240 batches exchanged.
In rapeseed, February futures set another record high for Euronext at 760.00 euros a tonne, before easing back to settle down 0.7% at 751.75 euros.
Friday’s session was marked by a low level of trade, as only around 1,000 lots had traded, but still by great volatility.
Very tight old-crop supply in Europe has kept nearby prices firm, with a rally in other oilseed markets also lending support.
Particularly, Matif March wheat futures jumped 11.75 euros from prior week, closing at €290.25/t.
Matif corn January futures were rose 1.5 euros to close the week at €244/t.
Matif rapeseed February futures, bounced by 22.75 euros, ending the week at €751.75/t.
Jan-21 UK feed wheat futures lifted £4.95 from prior week, closing at £224.5/t.
Meantime, with the majority of storage organizations closed for the week with a reopening scheduled for next Monday, as of December 23, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Jan. delivery, were at $ 332/mt, up $9/mt from last week.
French durum wheat, FOB Port la Nouvelle not quoted past week.
French durum wheat – basis La Pallice, quoted $532.42/mt, up $11.34 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (DepSilo), not quoted past week.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), valued at $598.12/mt, unchanged from prior week.
German wheat (Depsilo) with 12.5 pro not quoted past week.
Baltic wheat (Delivery First) not quoted past week.
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot – July 2021 basis was at $280.93 per tonne, up $4.53 from prior week.
FOB Rhin Spot – July 2021 basis was at $288.86 per tonne, up $5.66 week on week.
Feed barley delivered Rouen – July 2021 basis was at 300.19$/t, up $24.92.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2021 basis was at $424.8 per tonne, up $11.33/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was at 864.32$/ton, up $41.92 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was up unchanged from prior week at $708 per tonne.
(EUR/USD=> US$1.1328).
From the Black Sea Basin, according to the preliminary estimation, Russia harvested 120.7 mln tonnes of grain (in weight after processing) in 2021, down from 133.5 mln tonnes in 2020, informed Rosstat.
Wheat production totaled 75.9 mln tonnes (85.9 mln tonnes in 2020).
Barley production declined from 20.9 mln tonnes in 2020 to 17.9 mln tonnes in 2021, rye – from 2.4 mln tonnes to 1.7 mln tonnes, oats – from 4.1 mln tonnes to 3.8 mln tonnes, rice – from 1.142 mln tonnes to 1.074 mln tonnes.
At the same time, production of corn increased from 13.9 mln tonnes to 14.6 mln tonnes, buckwheat – from 892 thsd tonnes to 921 thsd tonnes.
Sunflower seed crop grew from 13.3 mln tonnes to 15.5 mln tonnes, sugar beet – from 33.9 mln tonnes to 38.7 mln tonnes.
Meantime, in the period January-October 2021, Russia increased the export volumes of cereal crops by 7.2% compared with the same period of the last year to 34.987 mln tonnes, reported the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
In particular, in the reporting period wheat and meslin traditionally formed the basis of grain export supplies – 21.847 mln tonnes, down 22.6% compared with January-October 2020.
Russia exported 3.389 mln tonnes of barley (-18.9%), 2.484 mln tonnes of corn (+36.8%).
Moreover, Russia shipped abroad 109 thsd tonnes of rice (+13.1%) and 178 thsd tonnes of wheat and wheat-rye flour (-19.2%).
Exports of sunflower seed from Russia totaled 41.1 thsd tonnes in January-October (-96.2%).
Meantime, Russian wheat rose slightly last week after three weeks of declines.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in January was $330 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $1 from the previous week.
SovEcon, pegged barley down by $2 at $297 a tonne.
Meantime, domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery, was valued at 14,975 roubles/t –100 rbls ($204.2) (Sovecon).
Price of sunflower seed were at 35,100 rbls/t -750 rbls from last week (Sovecon).
Sunflower oil domestic price was down -325 rbls at 85,350 rbls/t (Sovecon).
Export price for sunflower oil was at $1,300/t +$5 (Sovecon).
Export price for sunflower oil was down -$5 at $1,310/t (IKAR).
Soybeans were unchanged at 43,300 rbls/t (Sovecon).
White sugar, Russia’s south, was at $654.3/t +$8.7 (IKAR).
($1 = 73.3350 roubles).
In this context, Russian Agriculture Ministry has amended export duties for wheat, barley and corn for the period Dec. 29 – Jan 11, 2021.
As for wheat the export duty continue to increase from 94 USD/t the prior week, to 94.9 USD/t for the referred period.
The indicative price moved up from 334.3 USD/t to 335.6 USD/t.
As for corn, the export duty lifted from 55 USD/t at 69 USD/t.
The indicative price also increased from 263.6 USD/t to 283.6.
In contrast, tariff for barley will decrease to 83.5 USD/t from 84.8 USD/t prior week.
The indicative price moved down from 306.2 USD/t to 304.4 USD/t.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
