Italian pasta makers are fearful of a substantial supply squeeze in the coming months.
Canada, which usually account about two-thirds of global durum trade, cut their output nearly 50% below 2020 levels.
That has sent durum quotations to 13-year highs.
Italy ’s domestic durum crop also recently cut.
Thus, the Italian’s food producers are more exposed to turmoil in the market.
According to some French analysts, some Italian processors risk being caught short in the coming months, as “in terms of prices and scarcity of durum, the worst is perhaps still to come.
”Indeed, European Commission in October cut its estimates for Italian durum to 3.7 million tonnes from 4.3 million, leaving pasta makers fretting about availability in the first half of 2022.
In add, unfavourable local crop reports in Canada suggest its official durum production estimate may be cut again in December.
According to Rhyl Doyle, director of export trading at Paterson Grain in #Winnipeg, “durum presents the greatest challenge in terms of balancing global import requirements with global export availability”.
Thus, adjusting to low stocks will partly imply to pay more for durum-based staples and maybe switching to less costly common wheat, according to some producers.
Price rises are not expected to dampen pasta demand in wealthy #European countries – where pasta is required to be made from durum.
However, consumption patterns may shift especially in emerging economies.
Thus, North African households that are facing an increase of around a quarter in the price of durum-based semolina bread, is expected to reinforce the prevalence of soft wheat bread.
Turkey, a major pasta exporter, earlier this year relaxed rules to increase the maximum share of common wheat allowed in pasta exports from 30% to 100% in response to dwindling durum supply.
On this wake, reduced demand is expected around 6% drop in global food use of durum in the 2021/22 season, while the International Grains Council projected that worldwide durum demand will hit a 19-year low in that period.
In anycase the IGC sees end-season durum stocks at a 14-year low.On the other hand, even in wealthy economies, households may feel the pinch.
Market data specialist Nielsen says supermarket prices of budget pasta brands – those most dependent on raw material costs – rose nearly 20% year-on-year in France in October, which could augur significant across-the-board increases in coming months.
