Good morning Farmer Family …
US farm markets were lightly mixed last Friday.
Corn prices eased slightly early in the session partly based on seasonal harvest pressure.
However, strength from equities and a weakening U.S. Dollar kept prices in the black at the bell even if just 0.04% higher.
For the week, corn went home by 0.8% lower.
Soybean prices made modest inroads in the end week session, largely on support from soymeal and soyoil gains.
Beans were also helped by a strong weekly export sales report.
Thus, soybean prices closed 0.29% higher on Friday that helped ending the week by 0.85% stronger.
Soymeal prices closed the last trading day of the week 1.11% higher and were 1.65% higher wk/wk.
Soy oil extended its rally by another 1.53% on Friday.
That left the contract up by 9.49% wk/wk.
Chicago SRW wheat contract ended the last trade day of the week with a 0.18% gain.
That has meant a net 1.05% loss for the week.
Kansas City HRW wheat price pulled back by 0.16% on Friday, ending the week 0.42% lower.
Minneapolis spring wheat closed with a 0.10% losse on Friday, but was able to have 0.8% weekly gain.
Meantime, corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. after rising 3 to 15 cents higher at four Midwestern locations on Friday.
An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after tracking 10 cents lower.
Soybean basis bids were steady to lightly firm across the central U.S. after picking up a penny at an Ohio elevator and an Indiana processor.
As for wheat, past week, basis was mixed in the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW).
Secondary rail rates rose 6% compared to prior week and an astonishing 1500% compared to the same week last year.
Barge traffic resumed along the Mississippi River, a key artery for grain exports through the Gulf, although lagged behind their pace from a year ago, according to USDA’s weekly Grain Transportation Report (GTR).
Export elevations were also firm, as wheat competes with corn and especially soybeans for available elevator space.
Overall, the story remains the same: sluggish railroad performance, the consistently high value of the U.S. Dollar, persistent dry weather in wheat growing areas, and uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal are all combining to keep grain prices high.
As of 18 October, 82pc of the US was experiencing abnormal dryness/drought, according to the US Drought Monitor, including an estimated 70pc of winter wheat areas.
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covers 99pc of Kansas, 77pc of Colorado, 90pc of Montana, 94pc of Texas and 100pc of Nebraska, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covers 100pc of Missouri, 76pc of Illinois, 100pc of Indiana, 59pc of Ohio, 41pc of Michigan, 86pc of Kentucky and 79pc of Tennessee.
Meantime, after sessions close, the weekly CFTC report on Friday showed that corn spec funds were 254,261 contracts net long on 10/18.
That was a 13,116 contract lighter net long than the previous week, coming via open longs rolled to new shorts.
Commercial corn hedgers closed out 35.9k contracts for a net 8,380 contract weaker net short of 455,253.
As for soybean, the report showed managed money funds changed little through the week that ended 10/18.
With 874 closed shorts and 250 new longs, the group’s net position was up to 66,862 contracts long.
Commercial soybean hedgers reduced exposure with 29,309 fewer open contracts.
That weakened the net short by 5k contracts to 90,790.
In soymeal, spec traders were adding slightly more longs than short for a 408 contract stronger net long on 2.5k new contracts and a 10/18 net long of 70,797 contracts.
The funds were net new buyers of soy oil through the week, extending their net long by 14k contacts to 75k.
As for wheat, CFTC reported managed money was 22,051 contracts net short in CBOT wheat futures and options as of 10/18.
That was a 2,549 contract stronger net short through the week via a roll of existing longs to new shorts.
In KC wheat, the CoT report had spec traders at 26,270 contracts net long, just 238 contracts weaker wk/wk.
The funds were 307 contracts less net long in MPLS wheat, for a 3,809 contract net long as of 10/18.
On this morning, prices of wheat, soybeans and corn dropped, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and as traders continued to monitor negotiations after a wheat shipment left Ukraine as part of the Black Sea grain deal.
In this context, the most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.9% at $13.83-1/2 a bushel, as of 05:23 GMT, wheat gave up 0.2% to $8.49 a bushel, and corn lost 0.8% to $6.78-3/4 a bushel.
In energy markets, oil prices settled up past Friday as hopes of stronger Chinese demand and a weakening U.S. dollar outweighed concern about a global economic downturn and the impact of interest rate rises on fuel use.
Crude also gained support from the looming European Union ban on Russian oil, as well as the recent 2 million-barrels-per-day output cut agreed by the OPEC+.
In this context, Brent crude settled at $93.50 a barrel, up $1.12, or 1.2%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at$85.05 a barrel, up 54 cents, 0.6%.
During the end week session, both benchmarks had been down by more than a dollar.
For the week, Brent was up by 2%, while WTI fell about 0.7%.
Traders squarred up positions ahead of the weekend after the WTI’s November contract expiry, increasing so volatility.
Last Thursday, oil had gained after Bloomberg News reported that Beijing was considering cutting the quarantine period for visitors to seven days from 10 days.
However there has been no official confirmation from Beijing.
Meanwhile, the U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose two to 771 in the week to Oct. 21, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.
U.S. oil rigs rose two to 612 past week, their highest since March 2020, while gas rigs were unchanged at 157.
On this morning, oil prices slid more than 1%, after Chinese data showed that demand remained lacklustre in September.
According to the customs data showed on Monday, indeed, although higher than in August, China’s September crude imports of 9.79 million barrels per day were 2% below a year earlier, , as independent refiners curbed throughput amid thin margins and lacklustre demand.
Saudi Arabia and Russia were neck and neck as China’s top two suppliers in September.
Uncertainty over China’s zero-COVID policy and property crisis, however, are undermining the effectiveness of pro-growth measures, even though third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth beat expectations, as the GDP data showed published a day after China’s Xi Jinping secured its third leadership term on Sunday.
Thus, Brent crude futures for December settlement slid $1, or 1.1%, to $92.50 a barrel by 06:09 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery was at $84.02 a barrel, down $1.03, or 1.2%.
In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index posted a second straight weekly fall past week, weighed down by weaker demand for capesize vessels, which slipped to their lowest in nearly three weeks.
The overall index, indeed, was down 18 points, or about 1%, at 1,819 on Friday.
The main index was down about 1% for the week.
Particularly, the capesize index lost 40 points, or about 1.9%, to 2,071. It was down about 4.4% for the week, its second weekly fall.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore used in construction, fell $330 to $17,175.
The panamax index lost 17 points, or about 0.8%, to 2,144, but was up about 3% past week.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, dropped $155 to $19,293.
The supramax index rose 2 points to 1,678.
In equity markets, Wall Street capped a volatile run for stocks with a broad rally last Friday, contributing to sizable weekly gains for major indexes.
The S&P 500 rose 2.4% and notched its biggest weekly gain since June.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq composite ended 2.3% higher.
Particularly, the S&P 500 rose 86.97 points to 3,752.75.
The Dow climbed 748.97 points to close at 31,082.56, and the Nasdaq added 244.87 points to 10,859.72.
Small company stocks also gained ground.
The Russell 2000 index rose 37.85 points, or 2.2%, to finish at 1,742.24.
Markets have been unsettled past week, as stocks lurched from sharp gains early in the week to losses later in the week.
The market appeared headed for another sell-off early Friday, but then reversed course.
Fresh signals from the Federal Reserve that it may consider easing up on its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, pushed down Treasury yields on Friday, after hitting multiyear highs past week.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects mortgage rates, indeed, slipped on Friday to 4.22% from 4.24% late Thursday.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track investors’ expectations for Federal Reserve action on interest rates, fell to 4.49% from 4.61%.
Thus, investors have shifted their focus, to the latest round of corporate earnings.
Reports from airlines, banks, railroad operators and others have provided mixed financial results and forecasts.
American Express fell 1.7% after setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars to cover potential losses as the economy continues to deteriorate.
Railroad CSX rose 1.7% after reporting solid financial results.
On the other hand, technology stocks, retailers and health care companies powered a big share of the rally.
Indeed, Oracle rose 5%, Home Depot added 2.3% and Pfizer rose 4.8%.
In contrast, social media companies fell broadly, with Snap slumped 28.1% and Twitter shed 4.9%.
For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.74%, the Dow gained 4.89% and the Nasdaq rose 5.22%.
Each of the three major indexes notched their biggest weekly percentage gains in four months.
On this morning, Asian shares were mixed, as benchmarks fell in Hong Kong and Shanghai after Beijing reported that the Chinese economy gained momentum in the last quarter.
Chinese economy grew at a 3.9% annual pace, up from the previous quarter’s 0.4%, but that still was among the slowest expansions in decades as the country wrestled with repeated closures of cities to fight virus outbreaks.
Xi Jinping has awarded himself a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party.
Xi gave no sign of plans to change the severe “zero-COVID”.
Also, he indicated no changes in policies straining relations with Washington and Asian neighbors.
Thus, market watchers are keeping a cautious eye on inflationary pressures and any signs of risk for regional slowdowns.
Meantime, benchmarks were higher in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul.
Particularly, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.5% in afternoon trading to 27,029.83.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.5% to 6,779.40.
South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.9% to 2,232.59.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 6.3% to 15,185.93, while the Shanghai Composite index shed 1.9% to 2,982.50.
In currency trading, the greenback tumbled against the yen last Friday, prompting analysts to suspect Tokyo of intervening to halt the Japanese currency’s slide.
Still, the dollar dipped against a basket of world currencies as the euro gathered strength.
Particularly, the dollar index fell 0.9%, with the euro up 0.77% to $0.9858.
The Japanese yen strengthened 1.94% versus the greenback to 147.30 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1304, up 0.63% on the day.
For the week, the Dollar Index remained firm however.
After reaching a 3-week high of 113.95, hit during the end week session, the index settled down from prior week’s 113.2 to close at 112.17.
Despite its retreat, the dollar index remained near a two decade high.
On this morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 148.93 Japanese yen from 147.30 yen.
The euro cost 98.47 cents, down from 98.58 cents.
Going back to analyzing other ag markets, in Canada, producers’ deliveries of common wheat in week 11 of the shipping season, were at 471,4k mt.
That was slightly weaker from 477,7k posted a week erlier.
Deliveries of durum wheat also decreased to 124.9k mt from 149.6k mt a week earlier.
Canada exported 333.1k mt of common wheat in week 11 of the shipping season.
That was weaker from 593.9k mt a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, in contrast, soared at 130.9k mt, up from 48.6k mt a week earlier.
Total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.972,2k mt, down from 3.056,4k mt a week earlier.
As for durum, total commercial stocks were at 834,7k mt, down from 886,2k mt a prior week.
Durum wheat exported in week ending Oct. 16 (week 11), has been the largest weekly volume shipped in the 11 weeks of this crop year.
It also was the largest weekly volume shipped since week 5 of the 2021-22 crop year.
Durum wheat cumulative exports of 560,200 mt are down 224,540 mt, or 28.6%, from the five-year average, but even down 23.8% from the pace set in 2021-22 when there was a sharply reduced production.
Referring the past five years pace achieved in CGC data, with an average of 18.4% of the crop year’s total exports as of week 11, on this wake the country could reach a pace 2022-23 exports of 3.045 million metric tons.
That is well-below the 5 mmt forecast released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
However, while early data appears troubling, a further look does show some positive signals.
Total producer deliveries into licensed facilities of 1.0845 mmt are well above the 821,900 mt delivered over the same period in 2021-22 and 25% higher than the five-year average.
Commercial stocks of durum in licensed facilities of 834,700 mt are up from 659,300 mt reported one year ago and 17.3% higher than the five-year average.
When the location of the stocks is taken into account, 53% of the reported commercial stocks are reported in primary elevators in the country, which is the lowest percentage calculated for this week over the past four years, while slightly below the five-year average of 53.9%.
Meantime, cash bids have stabilized past week.
At the southeast Saskatchewan average of $480.73/mt as of Oct. 20 is $95.44/mt higher than the September low, while near the highest reported since early July.
Thus, despite the rising bids, week 11 deliveries fell by 24,700 mt from the previous week as harvest deliveries come to an end, which may force buyers to sharpen their pencils …
Meantime, it is interesting to note the spread between DTN’s cash durum index and cash spring wheat index.
This spread closed at a modest $0.02/bushel USD on Oct. 20, which compares to the five-year average on this date at $1.24/bu USD (durum wheat over spring wheat) and the 10-year average of $1.38/bu.
As we know, focus will soon shift to the 2023 acres and this prices trend may to improve durum acres a bit!
Meantime, in Saskatchewan significant precipitation is needed this fall and over winter to replenish soil moisture, the province’s agriculture ministry has said.
Topsoil moisture on cropland is rated 22pc adequate, 35pc short and 43pc very short “Even the regions that started the year with a surplus of moisture are now becoming very dry”.
From South America, Argentina’s wheat crop has been seen sliding again due to prolonged drought plus a recent cold snap.
The current 2022/2023 wheat crop, indeed, past week was estimated at 15.2 million tonnes, down from prior week’s forecast of 16.5 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report last Thursday.
That is a slashing in its production forecast by nearly 8%.
BdeC also cut its projection for fields planted with corn to 7.3 million hectares from 7.5 million hectares estimated prior week, down about 3% and blamed on the months-long drought.
Freezes from Oct. 8-9 in key areas planted with wheat caused significant damage to expected yields, according to the exchange, which also reported that 53% of wheat-planted areas are experiencing between regular and bad conditions.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn farmers have to date planted 17% of their corn-designated fields for the 2022/2023 season, or down more than 9 percentage points compared to the same time during the previous cycle.
The slow pace of corn planting is due to the lack of optimal soil humidity, the BdeC report noted, which is also seen hitting yields since early planted corn tends to be more productive.
The Rosario exchange, however, maintained its projections for the 2022/23 corn harvest at 56 million tonnes and its 2022/23 soybean harvest at 48 million tonnes.
But due to the drought farmers may opt to plant more land in soybeans, thus the exchange estimating that the planting area for the oilseed could reach 17 million hectares (42 million acres).
From Brazil, Safras and Mercado reported 19.1% of the 22/23 soybean crop has been planted as of 10/14.
That was up from 9.7% prior week, but trailing 21% last year.
AgRural estimated 24% of the crop was planted through 10/14, up from 10% last week and 22% last year.
AgRural reported the Brazilian 1st crop corn was 46% planted as of 10/14.
That was up 7% points through the week and is 1% point ahead of last year’s pace.
In this context, USDA attaché increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 42.8 million hectares for (marketing year) 2021/22, up previously from 42.5 million hectares.
Brazil continues to expand its area due to record high domestic soybean prices.
USDA attaché also forecasts a record harvest at 148.5 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 144 MMT previously with planting starting earlier this year as well.
The attaché increased the export forecast in 2022/223 to 95.7 MMT, an increase from 92 MMT.
USDA attaché revised imports downwards due to ample supplies, now forecast at 300,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/23.
For 2022/23, the attaché revised the forecast for soybeans destined for processing upward to a record of 50 MMT based on strong demand for Brazilian soybean products, especially oil.”
Meantime, Brazil’s Anec expected the country’s corn exports to reach 7.18 MMT in October, which is moderately above its prior forecast from a week earlier.
Anec also expected the country’s soybean exports to reach 3.77 MMT in October, which is slightly higher than its prior forecast from a week erlier.
Brazilian soymeal exports may come in at 2.038 million metric tons this month.
In Europe, sowing conditions in France remain very favorable for winter crops, with, however, temperatures still abnormally high for the season, leading to fears of sensitivity to come next spring in the event of frost.
According to the farm office FranceAgriMer, indeed, French farmers had sown 46% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Oct. 17, compared with 21% a week earlier and ahead of year-ago progress of 36%.
Farmers also advanced swiftly in winter barley sowing last week, with 67% of the expected area drilled by Monday against 37% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer’s cereal crop progress report showed.
Winter barley sowing was also ahead of the pace last year, when 54% of the area had been drilled by the same week.
In this context, Stratégie Grains raised the 2022-23 EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 125.5Mt.
However, it still down 3pc on previous year.
The French consultancy also said EU corn production will fall to 50Mt this year.
That is a “calamitously low” level, exactily 2.5Mt lower than its previous estimate and 28pc lower than last year.
Grain maize harvesting in France has been nearly finished, with 92% of the area cut by past Monday, FranceAgriMer said.
That compared with 83% the prior week and just 30% a year ago.
Still European users have already imported massive amounts from Ukraine and Brazil to offset the anticipated shortfall, so allowing the market “some breathing space”.
In other news, multinational chemical company and fertilizer manufacturer, Yara, cut its European ammonia output to just 57pc of capacity in the third quarter as it struggled with swings in natural gas prices.
From Russia, despite a huge wheat harvest this season, Russia is considering an export quota on all grains, said Dmitriy Patrushev, the nation’s agriculture minister.
Patrushev said the export quota is 25.5 MMT of grain and would begin February 15 and end June 30.
However, the minister did not indicate how much wheat was included in the quota.
Also, the quota still needs government approval, but not seem rextrictive.
Discussions on the Black Sea grain deal continued.
U.N. officials emphasized the importance of Russian fertilizer as “key to worldwide agricultural production.”
Russia continues to complain that the deal is dependent on the West and blamed sanctions on logistics, bank payments, and shipping insurance that have slowed shipments of Russian fertilizer.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday accused Russia of deliberately delaying the passage of 150 vessels carrying grain exports under the U.N. grain-deal.
Kyiv has exported almost 11 million tonnes of grains and other foods since July.
Meantime, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he sees no obstacles to extending the export corridor deal, after discussions with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts this week.
“There is no obstacle to extending the export deal. I saw this in the talks I held with (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy last night and also in the talks I held with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” NTV reported.
In this context, the market seems to think that the corridor will be extended.
Meantime, the Russian agriculture ministry revised the export tax for wheat increasing it by another 3.2%.
Particularly, as of October 26, the export duty on wheat will increase to 3,028.0 from 2,934.3 rubles per ton a week earlier.
The duty on barley, also will increase to 2,524.2 rubles from 2,479.9 rubles per ton a week earlier.
For corn, in contrast, it will continue down to 1,909.1 rubles from 2,410.1 rubles a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through November 01, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $310.1 per ton for wheat ($308.3 a week earlier), $280.5 for barley ($279.80), $266.4 for corn ($278.16).
From Ukraine, Nibulon, said it completed the first phase of its new grain export terminal at the Danube port of Izmail.
Three Ukrainian ports ship grain down the Danube.
Also, past week the Europe’s largest land-based container
terminal, began operation near the Hungarian border with Ukraine.
The terminal allows containers to be transferred between wide and standard gauge rail tracks and between trains and trucks.
The terminal will increase Ukrainian grain shipments from the Adriatic Sea.
Meantime, Ukraine said a ship carrying 40,000 tonnes of wheat departed on Sunday from Chornomorsk bound for Yemen.
From the Middle Kingdom, as we said, President Xi Jinping formally secured a third term as head of China’s Communist Party.
He elevated loyalists and forced out moderates in his new seven-man Politburo Standing Committee.
The official titles of the standing committee members will only be confirmed at next year’s parliamentary National People’s Congress meeting, where Xi Jinping will be confirmed as president again.
However analysts believe that Li Qiang, who upon leaving the ceremony walked immediately behind Xi Jinping, will become Premier and therefore the one to manage China’s economy.
Li Qiang is currently the party secretary of Shanghai and oversaw the city’s controversial lockdown.
Meanwhile, China’s soybean imports in September jumped 12% to 7.72 million tonnes from a year earlier, customs data showed, reversing a months-long trend of low arrivals.
The arrivals were slightly higher than some traders had expected.
However, though the September arrivals are higher than usual for this time of the year, overall imports for the first nine months of the year are still down 6.6% compared with last year at 69.04 million tonnes.
The high prices and lacklustre demand from the livestock sector earlier in the year curbed the appetite for soybean purchases.
The increase in September arrivals came largely from the United States, which shipped 1.15 million tonnes to China last month, up from 169,439 tonnes in September 2021, customs data showed.
Imports from Brazil slipped to 5.58 million tonnes versus 5.936 million tonnes last year.
Meantime, China’s third-quarter pork output reached 12.11 million tonnes, official data showed on Monday.
Still, third quarter pork output was slightly higher than the 12.02 million tonnes produced during the same period a year ago.
China’s pork output reached 41.5 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year.
That is up 5.9% from the corresponding period a year ago.
The total pig herd also grew to 443.94 million heads at the end of September, up from 430.57 million at the end of June, the data also showed.
Meantime, since the middle of June, hog prices have rallied more than 60%, apparently pushing up consumer inflation, and prompting repeated market intervention by authorities in Beijing.
According to the China’s powerful state planner the rally in prices is a result of farmers holding back pigs from slaughter as they wait for higher prices, while others seek to profit by raising pigs to heavier weights, although some analysts say the rapid rise in price is due to tighter supply of hogs.
Two phrases that basically have the same meaning!
In the first case, the result is not voluntary, while in the second it is!
From Australia, according to the USDA attaché, the country is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record-setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22.
Particularly, wheat production is forecast at 34 million metric tons (MMT), down from the record-breaking MY 2021/22 crop of 36.3 MMT but still the second-largest in history.
Similarly, barley production is forecast at 12.2 MMT, down from the previous year’s 13.9 MMT record.
Sorghum production is forecast to achieve the fourth-largest on record in MY 2022/23 at 2.6 MMT and exports at a near-record 2.1 MMT.
With plentiful irrigation water available, rice production in MY 2022/23 is forecast to continue to grow for the third successive year to 575,000 MT.
Meantime, Friday’s local markets continued firmer, accessible sites and guaranteed delivery gaining premiums.
Crop quality and crop losses due to flooding remain uncertain.
Devastating losses occurred over the weekend and the forecast is not providing any comfort.
Succesive rain is causing significant quality problems and yield losses in many parts of eastern Australia, with chickpeas, lentils and faba beans hard hit.
Early estimates say production of the three pulses could be down by around one third on what was expected in mid-September, and their only value will be as nitrogen sources for next year’s cereals.
However, districts that have undulating country and/or free-draining soils are looking at bumper yields as late crops get later, and flourish in the unusually mild and wet spring.
Trade and agronomy sources say pulse crops overall in New South Wales and Victoria will struggle to reach their yield potential as fungal diseases and waterlogging pressure or write off crops.
On the positive side, lentils in South Australia and lupins in Western Australia are heading towards bumper or even record yields, and wet conditions are setting NSW and Queensland up for a record mungbean plant in December-January.
As for wheat, widespread quality downgrades and considerable yield losses are seen as unavoidable in winter crops across New South Wales and Victoria.
Rainfall is expected over this week throughout Qld, NSW and Victoria.
The 8-day forecast for SA and WA is expected to bring 15-50mm rain.
Thus, only crops on either the sloping eastern edge of the grainbelt, or the western edge spreading into Queensland are expected to escape the brunt of weather damage.
From a market perspective, a chronic shortage of high-protein wheat is already evident, with the APH2 wheat price bid at more than 40 per cent above the base-grade APW.
On the international trade scene, Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.
The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes but the shipment to two ports generally indicates a small purchase is planned.
The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Tuesday, Oct. 25, with offers having to remain valid until Wednesday, Oct. 26.
The wheat is sought for shipment in several periods from the main supply regions including Europe: Nov. 16-30, Dec. 1-15 and Dec. 16-31.
If sourced from South America or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.
The wheat should be unloaded in the ports of Mostaganem and/or Tenes.
Thailand issued an international tender to purchase up to 180,000t animal feed wheat and offers are now being considered.
Turkey’s state grain board TMO started making provisional purchases of wheat in an international tender for 495,000t which closed on Friday with about 125,000t initially bought:
– Iskenderun 50,000 Grain Star $329.40;
– Mersin 50,000 Grain Star $326.80;
– Izmir 25,000 Grainflower $341.90.
Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO said on Monday that it bought 566,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for shipment March-April 2023.
SAGO said three shipments were sought for unloading at Jeddah Port, three at Yanbu Port and two at Dammam and Jazan.
Watching this week’s market, today in the afternoon we will get the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports, along with the monthly Cold Storage report.
On Wednesday EIA will publish their weekly ethanol production and stocks update.
Thursday afternoon is the weekly Export Sales report from FAS.
That’s all, thank you.
We wish you a good day and a good start to the week.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
