GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 8, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets suffered a setback on Thursday, with the only exception of the corn market.
Corn prices, indeed, were able to shift 0.1% higher.
Soybeans incurred a double-digit loss, down 1.22%.
The rest of the soy complex also faded into the red, as soymeal shifted 1.12% lower, while soyoil tumbled 2.65%.
Wheat prices incurred moderate losses, with Chicago SRW falling 1.52%, Kansas City HRW losing 1.67%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropping 0.99%.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is slated to issue monthly crop data on Sept. 12.
EIA’s weekly data showed ethanol producers averaged 1.012 million barrels per day during the week that ended 9/1. The weekly stocks data were at 21.621 million barrels.
Corn basis bids spilled 10 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal and 25 cents lower at an Iowa processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations, but did trend 2 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat, soybean, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts, and net buyers of CBOT corn.
This morning, Chicago soybeans eased and the market was on track for a second consecutive weekly drop.
Corn was unchanged, but set to end the week firmer, while wheat edged higher.
Soybeans lost 1% so far this week.
Corn gained 1% for the week.
Wheat was up 0.8% this week.
Corn prices, indeed, were able to shift 0.1% higher.
Soybeans incurred a double-digit loss, down 1.22%.
The rest of the soy complex also faded into the red, as soymeal shifted 1.12% lower, while soyoil tumbled 2.65%.
Wheat prices incurred moderate losses, with Chicago SRW falling 1.52%, Kansas City HRW losing 1.67%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropping 0.99%.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is slated to issue monthly crop data on Sept. 12.
EIA’s weekly data showed ethanol producers averaged 1.012 million barrels per day during the week that ended 9/1. The weekly stocks data were at 21.621 million barrels.
Corn basis bids spilled 10 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal and 25 cents lower at an Iowa processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations, but did trend 2 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat, soybean, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts, and net buyers of CBOT corn.
This morning, Chicago soybeans eased and the market was on track for a second consecutive weekly drop.
Corn was unchanged, but set to end the week firmer, while wheat edged higher.
Soybeans lost 1% so far this week.
Corn gained 1% for the week.
Wheat was up 0.8% this week.
Canada
Saskatchewan crop report for the period August 29 – September 4 showed durum wheat already combined at 73,1%, provincial estimated crop yield at 23bpa. Producers have crossed the halfway point of the total harvest this week at 51 per cent complete.
This year’s diverse growing conditions in the province have led to varying yields for all crops. Drought in the southwest resulted in yields below the provincial average, while northeast moisture led to above-average yields.
This year’s diverse growing conditions in the province have led to varying yields for all crops. Drought in the southwest resulted in yields below the provincial average, while northeast moisture led to above-average yields.
South America
Argentine
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentine corn output at 55 MMT for the coming season.
BAGE estimated Argentina’s soy output at 50 MMT.
The Exchange confirmed its outlook for wheat production at 16.5 mnt.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentine corn output at 55 MMT for the coming season.
BAGE estimated Argentina’s soy output at 50 MMT.
The Exchange confirmed its outlook for wheat production at 16.5 mnt.
Europe
European wheat prices rose, while oilseed markets fell.
The euro fell to a three month low against the dollar, supporting European commodity prices.
September loading activity in Europe is still slow, in spite large volumes available in port facilities.
In Poland, grain prices dropped this week while exporters grappled with rain-affected harvest quality.
French rapeseed area is set to stay high in 2024, analysts said.
Romania’s government will approve on Friday a plan to upgrade road infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Constanta, part of wider investments in the port which could help more Ukrainian grain to transit.
The euro fell to a three month low against the dollar, supporting European commodity prices.
September loading activity in Europe is still slow, in spite large volumes available in port facilities.
In Poland, grain prices dropped this week while exporters grappled with rain-affected harvest quality.
French rapeseed area is set to stay high in 2024, analysts said.
Romania’s government will approve on Friday a plan to upgrade road infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Constanta, part of wider investments in the port which could help more Ukrainian grain to transit.
North Africa
Morocco’s ONICL set September wheat import subsidy at $16.90/mt.
Ukraine
Ukrainian farmers have started the 2023 corn harvest, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.
As of Sept. 7, Ukraine harvested a total of 33.7 million tons of grain, the ministry said.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA, said exports through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta could increase to 35 million metric tons per season.
Russia carried out its fourth drone attack in five days on Ukrainian port facilities on the Danube River, damaging grain silos on a vital export route for Kyiv, Ukraine said.
Lloyd’s of London said it would insure Ukrainian grain shipments if a new Black Sea corridor deal was established, on the proviso of UN full intervention and clearance of any possible new deal.
Ukraine started exports grain through Croatian ports.
Baltic and Polish ports will be able to handle up to 10 mln tonnes of Ukrainian grain per year, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda said.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of September 8, Ukraine exported to foreign markets 5.054 mln tonnes of grains and pulses.
As of Sept. 7, Ukraine harvested a total of 33.7 million tons of grain, the ministry said.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA, said exports through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta could increase to 35 million metric tons per season.
Russia carried out its fourth drone attack in five days on Ukrainian port facilities on the Danube River, damaging grain silos on a vital export route for Kyiv, Ukraine said.
Lloyd’s of London said it would insure Ukrainian grain shipments if a new Black Sea corridor deal was established, on the proviso of UN full intervention and clearance of any possible new deal.
Ukraine started exports grain through Croatian ports.
Baltic and Polish ports will be able to handle up to 10 mln tonnes of Ukrainian grain per year, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda said.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of September 8, Ukraine exported to foreign markets 5.054 mln tonnes of grains and pulses.
Russia
As of September 6, 2023, grain harvest in Russia totaled 112 mln tonnes the Minister of Agriculture, Dmitriy Patrushev, said.
The planting of winter crops is actively underway, and is expected to reach 20 mln ha.
The United Nations is “actively engaged” in trying to improve Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports in a bid to convince Moscow to again allow the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday.
The planting of winter crops is actively underway, and is expected to reach 20 mln ha.
The United Nations is “actively engaged” in trying to improve Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports in a bid to convince Moscow to again allow the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday.
South-East Asia
The Cereal Association of Pakistan chairman was reported as saying Pakistan plans to import 700,000t wheat from Russia/Romania.
Malaysian palm oil prices closed down for a fourth consecutive session, on losses in rival oils, while traders are waiting for of supply & demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). This morning the market fell further and prices were set for their first weekly drop in four.
Malaysian palm oil prices closed down for a fourth consecutive session, on losses in rival oils, while traders are waiting for of supply & demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). This morning the market fell further and prices were set for their first weekly drop in four.
Australia
Local wheat and barley markets continued to firm yesterday.
Australia’s weather bureau said country’s August rainfall, was 49.5% below the average for the month in the period 1961–1990, the tenth-driest August in records going back to 1900.
Great rainfall was recorded through South Australia from west to east, in the past 24hours. Parts of southern and central NSW also received some rainfall helping maintain crops for now. Victorian grain regions also received some welcome falls.
Australia’s weather bureau said country’s August rainfall, was 49.5% below the average for the month in the period 1961–1990, the tenth-driest August in records going back to 1900.
Great rainfall was recorded through South Australia from west to east, in the past 24hours. Parts of southern and central NSW also received some rainfall helping maintain crops for now. Victorian grain regions also received some welcome falls.
FAO Food Price Index – September 2023 Update
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 121.4 points in August 2023, down 2.1 percent from July.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 125.0 points in August, down 0.7 percent from July and standing 14.1 percent below its value a year ago.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 125.8 points in August, down 3.1 percent month-on-month.
The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 111.3 points in August, down 4.0 percent from July, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline.
The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 114.6 points in August, down 3.0 percent from July, and 5.4 percent from its value a year ago.
The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 148.2 points in August, up 1.3 percent from July and as much as 34.1 percent from its level in the same month last year.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 125.0 points in August, down 0.7 percent from July and standing 14.1 percent below its value a year ago.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 125.8 points in August, down 3.1 percent month-on-month.
The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 111.3 points in August, down 4.0 percent from July, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline.
The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 114.6 points in August, down 3.0 percent from July, and 5.4 percent from its value a year ago.
The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 148.2 points in August, up 1.3 percent from July and as much as 34.1 percent from its level in the same month last year.
FAO Cereal Supply & Demand – September 2023 Update
FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2023 has been revised at 2.815 million tonnes.
Global wheat output is now pegged at 781.1 million tonnes.
The forecast for global coarse grains production in 2023 is now at 1.511 million tonnes.
World barley production was pegged to 143.8 million tonnes.
Global oat outturn in 2023 is estimated at 23.1 million tonnes.
World maize production is now forecast at 1.215 million tonnes.
Pegged at 878 million tonnes, the forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2023/2024 seasons is unchanged from July.
World wheat stocks are forecast to rise marginally, by 0.3 percent, above their opening levels to 315 million tonnes.
The forecast for the world total coarse grain stocks stands at 365 million tonnes.
Global wheat output is now pegged at 781.1 million tonnes.
The forecast for global coarse grains production in 2023 is now at 1.511 million tonnes.
World barley production was pegged to 143.8 million tonnes.
Global oat outturn in 2023 is estimated at 23.1 million tonnes.
World maize production is now forecast at 1.215 million tonnes.
Pegged at 878 million tonnes, the forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2023/2024 seasons is unchanged from July.
World wheat stocks are forecast to rise marginally, by 0.3 percent, above their opening levels to 315 million tonnes.
The forecast for the world total coarse grain stocks stands at 365 million tonnes.
Auctions
Wheat
A group of South Korean flour mills rejected all offers and made no purchase of around 45,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada sought in an international tender on Thursday.
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 88,260 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday.
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 88,260 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices fell, and Brent crude oil traded below $90 a barrel in volatile trade, halting a near two-week rally, on multiple signals warning of weaker demand in the coming months.
Thursday’s fall came after nine straight sessions of gains in WTI and seven straight gains in Brent.
This morning, oil prices extended losses, further receding from this week’s 10-month highs, amid a strengthening US dollar and concerns about the health of China’s economy.
Thursday’s fall came after nine straight sessions of gains in WTI and seven straight gains in Brent.
This morning, oil prices extended losses, further receding from this week’s 10-month highs, amid a strengthening US dollar and concerns about the health of China’s economy.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London rose to a two-week high, helped by a jump in capesize vessel rates.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes settled mixed, but the broader market was under pressure due a weakness in technology stocks.
The Wall Street Journal said “China plans to expand a ban on the use of iPhones to government-backed agencies and state companies”.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low.
Strength in defensive pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks supported the Dow Jones Industrials index.
This morning, shares in Asia fell, after Japan reported its economy grew less than earlier estimated in the last quarter.
The Wall Street Journal said “China plans to expand a ban on the use of iPhones to government-backed agencies and state companies”.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low.
Strength in defensive pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks supported the Dow Jones Industrials index.
This morning, shares in Asia fell, after Japan reported its economy grew less than earlier estimated in the last quarter.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose to a 5-3/4 month high, on an unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims, and an upward revision to Q2 labor costs. Pessimism in China’s economic outlook prompted the yuan to fall to a 15-year low against the dollar.
This morning, the dollar slipped to 147.19 Japanese yen from 147.30 late Thursday.The euro was trading at $1.0718, up from $1.0697.
This morning, the dollar slipped to 147.19 Japanese yen from 147.30 late Thursday.The euro was trading at $1.0718, up from $1.0697.
