GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 7, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were mixed but mostly higher on Wednesday.
Corn prices eased 0.05% lower.
Soybeans rose 0.85%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal trended 0.4% higher, while soyoil faded 0.75% lower.
Wheat prices made solid inroads, as Chicago SRW gained 1.63%, Kansas City HRW climbed 3.45%, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 2.66%.
Weekly crop conditions for soybean deteriorated more than expected.
Corn harvesting in parts of the western U.S. Midwest is starting sooner than normal.
Ahead of the USDA September crop supply/demand report, StoneX updated its estimate of the average U.S. 2023 corn yield to 175 bushels per acre. Allendale forecasts 171.51 bushels per acre. For soybean, StoneX forecasts 50.1 bushels per acre, while Allendale 49.58 bpa.
Monthly Census data had 94.41 mbu of corn shipments for the month of July. The full year corn export was officially marked at 1.557 bbu.
For soybean, data from Census showed 46.88 mbu of soyubeans were exported in July. Accumulated soybean shipments were marked at 1.929 bbu. July soymeal exports were marked at 1.08 MMT for a total meal exports of 11.245 MMT. Soy oil shipments were shown at 16,882 MT for the month, taking the season total to 146.9k MT.
For wheat, Census data had 63.92 mbu of wheat exports for July. Accumulated exports through the first two months were at 106.15 mbu.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak after dropping 5 to 30 cents across seven Midwestern locations. An Ohio elevator bucked the overall trend after firming 10 cents higher.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after dropping 5 to 20 cents at three Midwestern processors.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn but net buyers of wheat and soybeans.
This morning, Chicago corn prices eased trading close to three-year lows. Soybean and wheat prices also fell, giving back some gains made on Wednesday.
Corn prices eased 0.05% lower.
Soybeans rose 0.85%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal trended 0.4% higher, while soyoil faded 0.75% lower.
Wheat prices made solid inroads, as Chicago SRW gained 1.63%, Kansas City HRW climbed 3.45%, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 2.66%.
Weekly crop conditions for soybean deteriorated more than expected.
Corn harvesting in parts of the western U.S. Midwest is starting sooner than normal.
Ahead of the USDA September crop supply/demand report, StoneX updated its estimate of the average U.S. 2023 corn yield to 175 bushels per acre. Allendale forecasts 171.51 bushels per acre. For soybean, StoneX forecasts 50.1 bushels per acre, while Allendale 49.58 bpa.
Monthly Census data had 94.41 mbu of corn shipments for the month of July. The full year corn export was officially marked at 1.557 bbu.
For soybean, data from Census showed 46.88 mbu of soyubeans were exported in July. Accumulated soybean shipments were marked at 1.929 bbu. July soymeal exports were marked at 1.08 MMT for a total meal exports of 11.245 MMT. Soy oil shipments were shown at 16,882 MT for the month, taking the season total to 146.9k MT.
For wheat, Census data had 63.92 mbu of wheat exports for July. Accumulated exports through the first two months were at 106.15 mbu.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak after dropping 5 to 30 cents across seven Midwestern locations. An Ohio elevator bucked the overall trend after firming 10 cents higher.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after dropping 5 to 20 cents at three Midwestern processors.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn but net buyers of wheat and soybeans.
This morning, Chicago corn prices eased trading close to three-year lows. Soybean and wheat prices also fell, giving back some gains made on Wednesday.
Canada
The provincial agriculture department of Manitoba reported the overall harvest was at 37 per cent complete as of Sept. 5. The combining of winter wheat and fall rye wrapped up for 2023, while among the spring cereals, oats was 71 per cent done, spring wheat was at 70 per cent and barley reached 65 per cent.
Statistics Canada’s international merchandise trade for July reports showed total merchandise imports falling by 5.4% in July and exports rising by 0.7%.
Total durum exports for the season were at 5.072MMT. Italy narrowly edged out Algeria for top spot, with 1.209 MMT imported. Algeria imported 1.208MMT, and Morocco 857K.
Statistics Canada’s international merchandise trade for July reports showed total merchandise imports falling by 5.4% in July and exports rising by 0.7%.
Total durum exports for the season were at 5.072MMT. Italy narrowly edged out Algeria for top spot, with 1.209 MMT imported. Algeria imported 1.208MMT, and Morocco 857K.
South America
Conab’s latest estimate for soybean production held steady at 154.61 MMT, while total corn production is expected to reach 131.8 MMT.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports will reach 7.32 MMT in September. September soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.07 million metric tons, and corn exports at 9.67 MMT.
Conab forecast 50 million tons of corn exports and almost 97 million tons of soy exports for Brazil in the 2022/23 cycle.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports will reach 7.32 MMT in September. September soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.07 million metric tons, and corn exports at 9.67 MMT.
Conab forecast 50 million tons of corn exports and almost 97 million tons of soy exports for Brazil in the 2022/23 cycle.
Europe
European wheat rose from seven-week lows, supported by harvest downgrades in the southern hemisphere and reports about potential harvest disruptions in Russia.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube river ports will slow down the export of grains and other routes need to be enhanced, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said.
Poland will keep its embargo on Ukraine grain after the EU import ban ends on 15 Sep. Agriculture Minister supports keeping the transit of Ukraine grains through EU countries but expects the EU to subsidise it.
According to the European Commission Vice President, the EU solidarity lanes for Ukrainian grain exports are gradually approaching target volumes.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube river ports will slow down the export of grains and other routes need to be enhanced, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said.
Poland will keep its embargo on Ukraine grain after the EU import ban ends on 15 Sep. Agriculture Minister supports keeping the transit of Ukraine grains through EU countries but expects the EU to subsidise it.
According to the European Commission Vice President, the EU solidarity lanes for Ukrainian grain exports are gradually approaching target volumes.
Ukraine
Ukraine remains strongly against any further restrictions on the export of its grain implemented by neighbouring countries, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
Russian drone strikes have damaged port infrastructure, a grain silo and administrative buildings in the Izmail district of Ukraine’s Odesa region, its governor, Oleh Kiper, said on Thursday.
Ukraine’s Kernel says its Danube facilities attacked three times so far this month.
Russian drone strikes have damaged port infrastructure, a grain silo and administrative buildings in the Izmail district of Ukraine’s Odesa region, its governor, Oleh Kiper, said on Thursday.
Ukraine’s Kernel says its Danube facilities attacked three times so far this month.
Russia
The Russian Grain Union notes that given ample carryover stocks and good new crop quality, 2023-24 total grains exports could exceeding 60Mt.
Saudi Arabia has become the largest importer of Russian grain in July-August of the 2023/24 season. Egypt became a key importer of Russian wheat in first two months of 2023/24 season, with 1.28 KMT shipments.
Russia said Turkey had agreed in principle to handle 1 million metric tons of grain that Moscow plans to send to Africa at a discounted price with financial support from Qatar.
Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that fuel shortages threaten to disrupt autumn harvesting and sowing and urged a suspension of petroleum product exports, Interfax news agency reported.
Saudi Arabia has become the largest importer of Russian grain in July-August of the 2023/24 season. Egypt became a key importer of Russian wheat in first two months of 2023/24 season, with 1.28 KMT shipments.
Russia said Turkey had agreed in principle to handle 1 million metric tons of grain that Moscow plans to send to Africa at a discounted price with financial support from Qatar.
Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that fuel shortages threaten to disrupt autumn harvesting and sowing and urged a suspension of petroleum product exports, Interfax news agency reported.
China
China imported 9.36 million tonnes of soybeans in August, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed. Imports of vegetable oils in August were 955,000 tonnes.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices closed lower for a third consecutive session, after expectations of bearish inventory data pulled down prices while weaker rival oils weighed.
Australia
Wheat and barley have traded mostly higher this week as dry conditions move south in New South Wales to further limit grower selling.
Auctions
Wheat
A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase around 95,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada.
Corn
Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased animal feed corn sourced from Brazil in an international tender which closed on Tuesday.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices settled higher as traders anticipated further draws on U.S. crude oil inventory following extended production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
This morning, oil prices eased on concerns about a seasonal slowdown in demand ahead of winter and uncertainty over China’s economic outlook.
This morning, oil prices eased on concerns about a seasonal slowdown in demand ahead of winter and uncertainty over China’s economic outlook.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London rose, supported by gains in the capesize segment.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes fell, as Aug ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a 6-month high, bolstering speculation the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.
This morning, world shares slipped after China reported that its exports fell for a fourth straight month in August, adding to pressures on its slowing economy.
This morning, world shares slipped after China reported that its exports fell for a fourth straight month in August, adding to pressures on its slowing economy.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose and posted a new 5-1/2 month high, as T-note yields climbed on stronger-than-expected Aug ISM services report, and hawkish comments from Boston Fed President. Also, the yuan fell to a 10-month low against the dollar on Chinese economic concerns.
This morning, the U.S. dollar fell to 147.42 from 147.66 Japanese yen late Wednesday. The euro edged down to $1.0713 from $1.0725.
This morning, the U.S. dollar fell to 147.42 from 147.66 Japanese yen late Wednesday. The euro edged down to $1.0713 from $1.0725.
