GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 4, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Corn prices gained 0.68%.
Soybeans picked up 0.04%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal faded 0.86% lower, while soyoil shifted 1.28% higher.
Wheat prices continued to shift lower as Chicago SRW lost 1.08%, Kansas City HRW dropped 0.62%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 0.91%.
The USDA confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans to unknown destinations, marking six consecutive trading days of daily soybean sales notices.
The monthly Grain Crush data from NASS had 454 mbu of corn used for ethanol during the month of July, with the full year’s draw sits at 4.733 billion bushels.
The NASS Fats and Oils report showed 184.8 mbu of soybeans were processed in July, with the season’s crush sits at 2.043 bbu, and bean oil stocks at 2.149b lbs.
The Monthly Biofuel Capacity and Feedstock report showed June soy oil use at a record 1.207 bil. lbs. Year to date bean oil use hit 8.81 billion lbs. by the end of June.
Weak export demand has pressured wheat prices, as domestic flour mills are mostly well-supplied.
Corn basis bids were steady to weak after dropping 5 to 10 cents lower across three Midwestern locations.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after eroding 3 to 35 cents lower across five Midwestern locations.
Wheat basis ended the week mixed. Notably basis was up across all wheat classes in the Gulf, while HRS basis was flat in the PNW. HRW basis was down, widening the spread between Gulf and PNW HRW once again. SW prices were down. Great Lakes basis increased sharply.
Commodity funds sold 2,000 lots of wheat in Chicago on Friday. At the same time, they bought 3,500 lots of corn and 500 lots of soybeans.
For the week …
Corn lost 1.33% on the week.
Soybeans closed the week down 1.33%.
Wheat dipped 4.22%, its second consecutive weekly decline.
Today, US grain markets are closed, in observance of the federal Labor Day holiday.
As a result, we’ll back Wednesday for our next round of US ag news and analysis.
Brazil’s 2023/2024 first corn crop could reach 28.2 million metric tons, according to consultancy StoneX, while second corn crop could reach 109.1 million metric tons.
Governmental data shows that Brazil’s corn exports reached 9.40 MMT in August.
Brazil’s soybean exports in August reached 8.57 MMT.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that for the week ending August 30, 2023-24 wheat conditions were at 77pc as fair/excellent.
Concerning the country’s 2022/2023 corn harvest, the exchange said 1.1% of the crop’s planted area remains to be harvested.
An estimated 82% of French grain maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Aug. 28, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Strategie Grains estimated production of rapeseed at 18.9 million metric tons, sunflower seed at 10.3 million tons, soybeans at 2.84 million tons.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of September 1, Ukraine exported 4.521 mln tonnes of grains and pulses.
Ukraine is exporting more wheat than last year despite the collapse in July of a safe-passage deal for grain ships.
Two more cargo vessels have left a port near Odesa.
UGA has updated its forecast for crop in 2023 at 80.5 MMT of grains and oilseeds. Exports potentially could reach 49 MMT.
Russian drones hit Danube River port infrastructure in the early hours of Sunday morning. A fire that resulted from the attack at the facility was quickly extinguished.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in August ranged between 1,171,998 tons and 1,201,488 tons during July.
August rainfall was below average for the southern two-thirds of Queensland, most of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia and south-western Western Australia.
Aussie local new-crop wheat and barley markets finished the week a touch softer, on Friday. Meanwhile canola markets were pretty quiet.
Saudi Arabia is widely expected to extend a voluntary 1 million barrel per day oil production cut into October, and Russia, has already agreed with OPEC+ partners to cut oil exports next month.
Brent rose about 4.8% for the week, the most it has increased in a week since late July.
WTI advanced by 7.2% in the week, its biggest weekly gain since March.
This morning, oil prices were stable.
This morning, stocks were higher both in Europe and Asia, following a report that signaled the US jobs market, while still healthy, shows some signs of cooling, raising hopes for an easing of interest rate hikes.
This morning, the U.S dollar rose to 146.36 Japanese yen from 146.22 yen late Friday. The euro rose to $1.0793 from $1.0779.