GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 19, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets slowed sharply, on Monday.
Corn prices shifted 1% lower.
Soybeans face double-digit cuts, slumping 1.75%.
The rest of the soy complex also dropped, with soymeal spilling 0.81% lower, while soyoil lost 1.56%.
Wheat losses were variable, as Chicago SRW tumbled 2.15% lower, Kansas City lost HRW 1.54%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1.46%.
Harvest pressure mounted as more combines begin to roll over Midwestern fields.
USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 642,095 MT of corn shipments from the week that ended 9/14, for a total MYTD of 1.267 MMT through the first 2-weeks of the season.
For soybean, data showed 393,004 MT of soybeans were exported for a total MY of 766.6k.
For wheat, USDA reported 367,371 MT of wheat was exported, and the season total was at 5.12 MMT.
Separately, the USDA confirmed US private exporters having sold 123,000t of soybeans to China for the 2023-24 marketing year.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., tumbling as much as 60 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal while improving as much as 10 cents at an Iowa processor.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to weak across the central U.S., after trending 5 to 35 cents lower across four Midwestern locations. A Nebraska processor bucked the overall trend after tracking 5 cents higher.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybean, wheat, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures.
After the sessions close …
The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 9% complete, and crop condition at 51% as good to excellent.
NASS reported soybean harvest at 5% complete, and crop conditions at 52% as good to excellent.
The report showed the 2023/24 winter wheat planting at 15% finished as of 9/17.
Spring wheat harvest was at 93% complete.
This morning, Chicago wheat slid more than 1%, dropping to a one-week low.
Corn and soybean prices lost more ground with freshly harvested supplies hitting the market in the United States.
Corn prices shifted 1% lower.
Soybeans face double-digit cuts, slumping 1.75%.
The rest of the soy complex also dropped, with soymeal spilling 0.81% lower, while soyoil lost 1.56%.
Wheat losses were variable, as Chicago SRW tumbled 2.15% lower, Kansas City lost HRW 1.54%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1.46%.
Harvest pressure mounted as more combines begin to roll over Midwestern fields.
USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 642,095 MT of corn shipments from the week that ended 9/14, for a total MYTD of 1.267 MMT through the first 2-weeks of the season.
For soybean, data showed 393,004 MT of soybeans were exported for a total MY of 766.6k.
For wheat, USDA reported 367,371 MT of wheat was exported, and the season total was at 5.12 MMT.
Separately, the USDA confirmed US private exporters having sold 123,000t of soybeans to China for the 2023-24 marketing year.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., tumbling as much as 60 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal while improving as much as 10 cents at an Iowa processor.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to weak across the central U.S., after trending 5 to 35 cents lower across four Midwestern locations. A Nebraska processor bucked the overall trend after tracking 5 cents higher.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybean, wheat, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures.
After the sessions close …
The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 9% complete, and crop condition at 51% as good to excellent.
NASS reported soybean harvest at 5% complete, and crop conditions at 52% as good to excellent.
The report showed the 2023/24 winter wheat planting at 15% finished as of 9/17.
Spring wheat harvest was at 93% complete.
This morning, Chicago wheat slid more than 1%, dropping to a one-week low.
Corn and soybean prices lost more ground with freshly harvested supplies hitting the market in the United States.
South America
Brazil
According to CONAB, as of Sep 17, Brazil’s second corn crop harvest was at 95.7% complete.
CONAB also said, as of September 17, Brazil’s first corn crop sowing was at 15.0% complete.
Brazil has begun planting of its 2023-24 soybean crop.
According to the Agrural, 0.2% of the crop was planted, and the group currently projects production at 164 MMT.
Patria Agronegocios reported Brazil soybeans was at 0.4% planted.
Meteorologists and analysts said a large part of Brazil was expected to suffer from extreme heat this week that could hamper the country’s soybean planting.
According to CONAB, as of Sep 17, Brazil’s second corn crop harvest was at 95.7% complete.
CONAB also said, as of September 17, Brazil’s first corn crop sowing was at 15.0% complete.
Brazil has begun planting of its 2023-24 soybean crop.
According to the Agrural, 0.2% of the crop was planted, and the group currently projects production at 164 MMT.
Patria Agronegocios reported Brazil soybeans was at 0.4% planted.
Meteorologists and analysts said a large part of Brazil was expected to suffer from extreme heat this week that could hamper the country’s soybean planting.
Europe
European wheat dropped more than 2% on Monday.
EU wheat had hit a three-week high last week on first signs of renewed export demand, including from China.
Importers in China have bought large amounts of French wheat in the past week, with traders referring to between 5 and 10 cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes each, in what would be their first purchase of French wheat this season, shipment between November and March.
In maize, the European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS saw its forecast of this year’s EU average yield at 7.26 t/ha.
Poland and Slovakia unilaterally extended a ban on wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower imports from the Ukraine.
Hungary expanded its list of prohibited goods to 24.
Romania has not yet extended restrictions, but reportedly has an agreement with Ukraine that there will be no imports until they can agree a joint licensing arrangement.
Bulgaria was not going to introduce restrictions that would contradict the decision of the European Commission, but local farmers have reportedly started blocking the roads with tractors.
Ukraine will file a complaint to the World Trade Organisation over the restrictions and has said that it may retaliate with bans on imports of several products such as onions and apples from Poland and cars from Hungary.
Spain’s Agricultural Minister said a unilateral ban by any European Union member state on Ukrainian grain imports seemed illegal but it was up to the European Commission to judge.
Rapeseed is suffering from the harvest pressure seen in North America on both US soybeans and Canadian canola.
EU wheat had hit a three-week high last week on first signs of renewed export demand, including from China.
Importers in China have bought large amounts of French wheat in the past week, with traders referring to between 5 and 10 cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes each, in what would be their first purchase of French wheat this season, shipment between November and March.
In maize, the European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS saw its forecast of this year’s EU average yield at 7.26 t/ha.
Poland and Slovakia unilaterally extended a ban on wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower imports from the Ukraine.
Hungary expanded its list of prohibited goods to 24.
Romania has not yet extended restrictions, but reportedly has an agreement with Ukraine that there will be no imports until they can agree a joint licensing arrangement.
Bulgaria was not going to introduce restrictions that would contradict the decision of the European Commission, but local farmers have reportedly started blocking the roads with tractors.
Ukraine will file a complaint to the World Trade Organisation over the restrictions and has said that it may retaliate with bans on imports of several products such as onions and apples from Poland and cars from Hungary.
Spain’s Agricultural Minister said a unilateral ban by any European Union member state on Ukrainian grain imports seemed illegal but it was up to the European Commission to judge.
Rapeseed is suffering from the harvest pressure seen in North America on both US soybeans and Canadian canola.
Ukraine
Ukraine continues sowing winter crops: rapeseed and grain. According to the Ukraine Agro-Consult, as of the second half of September, 1 mln ha of winter rapeseed was sown, 585 thou ha of grain, including 514 thou ha of wheat, 47 thou ha of barley, and 24 thou ha of rye.
According to APK-Inform, Ukraine corn export forecast for 2023/24 season is now at 19 million metric tons. Meanwhile for the 2022/23 season Ukraine could export 27.3 million tons of corn. Ukraine may harvest 25.5 million tons of corn in 2023, the consultancy said last month.
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said bulk carriers “Resilient Africa” and “Aroyat” arrived in the port of Chernomorsk, due to load around 20,000t wheat for Africa and Asia.
According to APK-Inform, Ukraine corn export forecast for 2023/24 season is now at 19 million metric tons. Meanwhile for the 2022/23 season Ukraine could export 27.3 million tons of corn. Ukraine may harvest 25.5 million tons of corn in 2023, the consultancy said last month.
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said bulk carriers “Resilient Africa” and “Aroyat” arrived in the port of Chernomorsk, due to load around 20,000t wheat for Africa and Asia.
Russia
The wheat harvest as of Sept. 15 from 22.6 million hectares, totalled 82.2 million tons.
Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 7.5 million hectares.
Russia exported 1.28 million tons of grain last week, including 1.24 million tons of wheat, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.
SovEcon estimated September’s monthly grain export volume at 4.9 million tons.
Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week.
According to the IKAR, the price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October was $235 per metric ton, meanwhile Sovecon saw the price for this class of wheat at $244-246 per ton FOB.
Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 7.5 million hectares.
Russia exported 1.28 million tons of grain last week, including 1.24 million tons of wheat, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.
SovEcon estimated September’s monthly grain export volume at 4.9 million tons.
Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week.
According to the IKAR, the price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October was $235 per metric ton, meanwhile Sovecon saw the price for this class of wheat at $244-246 per ton FOB.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan harvested 6.6 million metric ton of grains and pulses as of Sept. 19, Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov said.
China
Grain farmers in northern China have escaped the worst impact of the summer’s typhoons on production, with harvests of crops like corn set to rise in the coming year.
Chinese Custom’s data had 1.2 MMT of corn imports for August. The year-to-date total was at 14.9 MMT.
For wheat, data had 840k MT of wheat imports for August. The year-to-date total was at 9.56 MMT.
For barley, data had 380k MT of barley imports in August. The year-to-date total was at 6.2 MMT.
For soybean, the report showed 9.36 MMT of imports in August, for a total year-to-date of 71.66 MMT.
Chinese Custom’s data had 1.2 MMT of corn imports for August. The year-to-date total was at 14.9 MMT.
For wheat, data had 840k MT of wheat imports for August. The year-to-date total was at 9.56 MMT.
For barley, data had 380k MT of barley imports in August. The year-to-date total was at 6.2 MMT.
For soybean, the report showed 9.36 MMT of imports in August, for a total year-to-date of 71.66 MMT.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices closed lower on Monday after three consecutive sessions of gains.
Australia
Heat sparked Australian wheat price rising.
Harvesting has begun with a few tonnes arriving from the CQ region, while the Qld/NSW border arriving by the end of the week.
Per latest BoM update, an El Nino event is under way in south-eastern Australia and is likely to last at least until February,
Harvesting has begun with a few tonnes arriving from the CQ region, while the Qld/NSW border arriving by the end of the week.
Per latest BoM update, an El Nino event is under way in south-eastern Australia and is likely to last at least until February,
Auctions
Corn
Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which is expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Tuesday.
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is today, Sept. 19.
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is today, Sept. 19.
Vegetable oils
Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Dec. 15 – 31. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight. The deadline for offers is Sept. 21.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices continued rising on expectations of a supply deficit stemming from extended output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
This morning, oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive session, as weak shale output in the United States spurred further concerns about a supply deficit.
This morning, oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive session, as weak shale output in the United States spurred further concerns about a supply deficit.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, in London hit its highest in more than four months, helped by a jump in the capesize segment.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes were slightly higher after last Friday’s sell-off, and ahead of FOMC meeting.
This morning, Asian shares sank as worries about the Chinese property sector weighed on markets from Hong Kong to Australia, while Japanese investors sold chip stocks on their return from a holiday-extended weekend.
This morning, Asian shares sank as worries about the Chinese property sector weighed on markets from Hong Kong to Australia, while Japanese investors sold chip stocks on their return from a holiday-extended weekend.
Currency trading
The dollar index fell slightly with the dollar undercut by a -3 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield, as the markets are expecting the FOMC this week to maintain a hawkish tone but remains open to one last rate hike. Monday’s weak U.S. homebuilder report also weighed on the dollar.
This morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.80 Japanese yen from 147.58 yen. The euro cost $1.0680, down from $1.0691.
This morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.80 Japanese yen from 147.58 yen. The euro cost $1.0680, down from $1.0691.
