GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 15, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were mixed once again, on Thursday.
Corn prices dropped 0.36%.
Soybean moved 0.8% higher.
The rest of the soy complex also trended highe, as soymeal rose 1.14%, and soyoil picked up 0.1%.
Wheat prices were back in the red, after an attempted rally in the previous session.
Chicago SRW indeed dropped 0.59%, Kansas City HRW lost 1.11%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 0.51%.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 753k MT of corn was booked for export during the week that ended 9/7. Total commitments were at 11.16 MMT.
Soybeans on the book, included 372k MT of previously announced sales, were at 703k MT during the week ending 9/7. Total commitments were at 16.6 MMT.
The weekly update showed a net cancelation of 201k MT for 22/23 soymeal via unknown. Unknown destinations added 225k MT to the 23/24 book, for a total 23/24 sale of 455k MT – or +253k MT net for the week.
Soyoil business was reported at -3,922 MT, with 3.9k canceled for 22/23 and 22 MT canceled for 23/24.
For wheat, there were 437,850 MT of wheat bookings. Total wheat commitments were at 8.3 MMT.
Corn basis bids were steady to weak after dropping 4 to 5 cents across three Midwestern locations.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mix after eroding 20 cents lower at an Iowa processor while firming 3 to 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations.
Commodity funds were net buyers of Chicago soybeans, soymeal and soyoil futures, and net sellers of wheat and corn.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices slightly rose, although prices hovered near 33-month lows. Corn and soybean edged higher.
Corn prices dropped 0.36%.
Soybean moved 0.8% higher.
The rest of the soy complex also trended highe, as soymeal rose 1.14%, and soyoil picked up 0.1%.
Wheat prices were back in the red, after an attempted rally in the previous session.
Chicago SRW indeed dropped 0.59%, Kansas City HRW lost 1.11%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 0.51%.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 753k MT of corn was booked for export during the week that ended 9/7. Total commitments were at 11.16 MMT.
Soybeans on the book, included 372k MT of previously announced sales, were at 703k MT during the week ending 9/7. Total commitments were at 16.6 MMT.
The weekly update showed a net cancelation of 201k MT for 22/23 soymeal via unknown. Unknown destinations added 225k MT to the 23/24 book, for a total 23/24 sale of 455k MT – or +253k MT net for the week.
Soyoil business was reported at -3,922 MT, with 3.9k canceled for 22/23 and 22 MT canceled for 23/24.
For wheat, there were 437,850 MT of wheat bookings. Total wheat commitments were at 8.3 MMT.
Corn basis bids were steady to weak after dropping 4 to 5 cents across three Midwestern locations.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mix after eroding 20 cents lower at an Iowa processor while firming 3 to 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations.
Commodity funds were net buyers of Chicago soybeans, soymeal and soyoil futures, and net sellers of wheat and corn.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices slightly rose, although prices hovered near 33-month lows. Corn and soybean edged higher.
Canada
As we said in yesterday newsletter, Statcan updated its production estimates for 2023 season.
All wheat was marked at 29.84 Mt; barley at 7.84 Mt, canola at 17.37 Mt, corn at 14.932 MMT, and soybean at 6.722 MMT.
Saskatchewan harvest has progressed nicely as of Sep 11, with 68 per cent of this year’s crop now in the bin. Durum wheat is now 88% complete. Provincially, quality is slightly above the 10-year average for peas, lentils and durum. Durum grade quality is reported at 32 per cent 1 CW, 46 per cent 2 CW and 22 per cent 3 CW.
According to the latest data from the Canadian Grain Commission:
Common wheat deliveries into the handling system for the week ending Sep 10, were at 725,1k mt, and durum at 109,1k mt.
Canadian wheat exports for shipping week six came in at 340,7k mt, for a total of 1997,5k mt YTD.
Durum wheat exports were at 25.9k mt, for a total of 223,1k mt YTD.
Commercial stocks stood at 2.703,3k mt for common wheat, and at 442,6k mt for durum.
All wheat was marked at 29.84 Mt; barley at 7.84 Mt, canola at 17.37 Mt, corn at 14.932 MMT, and soybean at 6.722 MMT.
Saskatchewan harvest has progressed nicely as of Sep 11, with 68 per cent of this year’s crop now in the bin. Durum wheat is now 88% complete. Provincially, quality is slightly above the 10-year average for peas, lentils and durum. Durum grade quality is reported at 32 per cent 1 CW, 46 per cent 2 CW and 22 per cent 3 CW.
According to the latest data from the Canadian Grain Commission:
Common wheat deliveries into the handling system for the week ending Sep 10, were at 725,1k mt, and durum at 109,1k mt.
Canadian wheat exports for shipping week six came in at 340,7k mt, for a total of 1997,5k mt YTD.
Durum wheat exports were at 25.9k mt, for a total of 223,1k mt YTD.
Commercial stocks stood at 2.703,3k mt for common wheat, and at 442,6k mt for durum.
South America
Brazil
Soybean meal premiums in Brazil was up again, improving crushing margin.
Argentina
According to the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BAGE), the share of planted wheat in “good or excellent” condition was around 24%, this week.
The exchange forecast Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat harvest at 16.5 million metric tons.
BAGE estimate 2.2% of Argentina’s 2023/24 planned corn crop had already been planted, and forecast a corn output at 55 million tons from 7.3 million hectares.
Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean crop would be 50 million tonnes, BAGE said.
Soybean meal premiums in Brazil was up again, improving crushing margin.
Argentina
According to the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BAGE), the share of planted wheat in “good or excellent” condition was around 24%, this week.
The exchange forecast Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat harvest at 16.5 million metric tons.
BAGE estimate 2.2% of Argentina’s 2023/24 planned corn crop had already been planted, and forecast a corn output at 55 million tons from 7.3 million hectares.
Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean crop would be 50 million tonnes, BAGE said.
Europe
European wheat prices rose to a three-week high; rapeseed ended 3.5% higher, rebounding from a three-month low.
The euro sharply dropped.
Hungary has agreed with Romania and Slovakia to impose bans on Ukrainian grain imports to protect their markets if the EU does not extend a ban that expires on Sept. 15.
Poland is pushing for extending the embargo on the import of Ukrainian grain as long as possible.
The EU is studying the possibility of involving Italy and Greece in the so-called “Solidarity Lanes” for the export of Ukrainian grain, the spokeswoman of the European Commission for Agriculture and Trade, Miriam García Ferrer, said.
The EU aims to transship up to 4 mln tonnes through this “Solidarity Lanes” by the end of the year.
Strategie Grains saw European Union soft wheat exports to 30.1 million metric tons this season.
An estimated 82% of French grain maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Sept 11, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Farmers had harvested 1% of the French grain maize by Sept 11.
The euro sharply dropped.
Hungary has agreed with Romania and Slovakia to impose bans on Ukrainian grain imports to protect their markets if the EU does not extend a ban that expires on Sept. 15.
Poland is pushing for extending the embargo on the import of Ukrainian grain as long as possible.
The EU is studying the possibility of involving Italy and Greece in the so-called “Solidarity Lanes” for the export of Ukrainian grain, the spokeswoman of the European Commission for Agriculture and Trade, Miriam García Ferrer, said.
The EU aims to transship up to 4 mln tonnes through this “Solidarity Lanes” by the end of the year.
Strategie Grains saw European Union soft wheat exports to 30.1 million metric tons this season.
An estimated 82% of French grain maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Sept 11, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Farmers had harvested 1% of the French grain maize by Sept 11.
Turkey
Turkish durum wheat has been exported to Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Libya, Portugal, Spain, and Tunisia, totaling 500,000 MT, with many more vessels nominated for loading, a commercial source said.
With an estimated durum wheat production at around 4.2 MMT, Turkey seems the world’s largest durum producer so far for this season.
With an estimated durum wheat production at around 4.2 MMT, Turkey seems the world’s largest durum producer so far for this season.
Ukraine
Ukraine has harvested 35.2 million metric tons of grain and oilseeds of the new 2023 harvest so far, agriculture ministry said.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a reduction in foreign exchange earnings of farmers by the end of 2023 by approximately $600 mln due to the introduction of a ban on food imports by Eastern European countries.
The Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development of the Republic of Moldova agreed to extend the Agreement on the Liberalization of Freight Transportation, at last until the end of 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a reduction in foreign exchange earnings of farmers by the end of 2023 by approximately $600 mln due to the introduction of a ban on food imports by Eastern European countries.
The Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development of the Republic of Moldova agreed to extend the Agreement on the Liberalization of Freight Transportation, at last until the end of 2025.
Russia
As of Sep 12, outstanding wheat sales from Russia, were at 4.9 MMT, according to Sovecon.
Sovecon estimates the wheat crop for 2023 season will reach 92.1 MMT.
Russian wheat stocks stood at 18.9 MMT on August 1, 2023, Sovecon said.
Sovecon estimates the wheat crop for 2023 season will reach 92.1 MMT.
Russian wheat stocks stood at 18.9 MMT on August 1, 2023, Sovecon said.
China
China’s central bank said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, to boost liquidity and support the country’s economic recovery.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices rose, extending gains to a second day, supported by recovery in Dalian vegetable oils and crude oil.
Australia
The Australian Taxation Office’s annual Foreign Ownership of Land register for the year to June 2022 shows Australia has around 48 million hectares, of Australia’s 387Mha agricultural land, has some level of foreign ownership. China remains the largest foreign owner of Australian agricultural land.
Australia exported 381,997 tonnes of barley and 283,917t of sorghum in July, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The forecast maps for any rain for in the back end of September do not look positive, but parts of the Western Australian cropping regions received timely rain. Temperatures have ramped up in eastern and South Australia.
Australia exported 381,997 tonnes of barley and 283,917t of sorghum in July, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The forecast maps for any rain for in the back end of September do not look positive, but parts of the Western Australian cropping regions received timely rain. Temperatures have ramped up in eastern and South Australia.
Auctions
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices climbed to their highest this year.
China’s central bank said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, to boost liquidity and support the country’s economic recovery.
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record peak but signalled this was likely its final move to tame inflation.
The International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended oil output cuts will result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter.
A day before the IEA report, the OPEC issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts are maintained.
This morning, oil prices rose and are set for a third weekly gain, on better-than-expected Chinese economic data and reports of record oil consumption. Both benchmarks were up about 4% from a week ago.
China’s central bank said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, to boost liquidity and support the country’s economic recovery.
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record peak but signalled this was likely its final move to tame inflation.
The International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended oil output cuts will result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter.
A day before the IEA report, the OPEC issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts are maintained.
This morning, oil prices rose and are set for a third weekly gain, on better-than-expected Chinese economic data and reports of record oil consumption. Both benchmarks were up about 4% from a week ago.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, in London rose for the seventh straight session, as demand strengthened across vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes settled moderately higher, as U.S. economic news were better-than-expected.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose, showing a stronger labor market than expectations.
The U.S. Aug final-demand PPI accelerated in July, the highest in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations.
Aug PPI ex-food and energy eased from July.
U.S. Aug retail sales rose, stronger than expectations.
Aug retail sales ex-autos rose, stronger than expectations.
Also, U.S. stock indexes had support after China cut the reserve requirement rate for banks by -25 bp, and the ECB raised interest rates by 25 bp, although signaled it would pause its rate hike cycle.
This morning, Asian shares were mostly higher, led by China, as Beijing eased required bank reserves, and reported that its slowing economy showed signs of stabilizing in August.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose, showing a stronger labor market than expectations.
The U.S. Aug final-demand PPI accelerated in July, the highest in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations.
Aug PPI ex-food and energy eased from July.
U.S. Aug retail sales rose, stronger than expectations.
Aug retail sales ex-autos rose, stronger than expectations.
Also, U.S. stock indexes had support after China cut the reserve requirement rate for banks by -25 bp, and the ECB raised interest rates by 25 bp, although signaled it would pause its rate hike cycle.
This morning, Asian shares were mostly higher, led by China, as Beijing eased required bank reserves, and reported that its slowing economy showed signs of stabilizing in August.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose and posted a 6-month high, on better-than-expected U.S. economic reports.
Also, the euro closed to a 5-3/4 month low against the dollar, after the ECB signaled it would pause its rate hike cycle.
This morning, the U.S. dollar inched up to 147.49 Japanese yen from 147.42 yen. The euro cost $1.0664, up from $1.0645.
Also, the euro closed to a 5-3/4 month low against the dollar, after the ECB signaled it would pause its rate hike cycle.
This morning, the U.S. dollar inched up to 147.49 Japanese yen from 147.42 yen. The euro cost $1.0664, up from $1.0645.
