GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 14, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were mostly higher on Wednesday.
Corn prices rose 1.21%.
Soybean inched 0.24% higher.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal tracked 0.63% lower, while soyoil jumped 3% higher.
Wheat prices grabbed variable gains, as Chicago SRW rose 1.66%, Kansas City HRW bounced 1.92%, and Minneapolis spring wheat picked up 1.09%.
The USDA’s downward revision of world wheat stocks, supported wheat prices. Meanwhile corn and soybeans benefited only slightly from the rebound in wheat, penalized by more than expected US production estimates in the latest WASDE report.
EIA reported ethanol production averaged 1.039m barrels per day for the week that ended 9/8. Stocks were at 21.2 million.
Analysts estimate August’s soy crush will be reported at 167.8 mbu for NOPA members.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 14,626 carloads last week, bringing cumulative totals for 2023 up to 648,518 carloads.
Corn basis bids held steady across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S., but did slide 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat soybean and corn futures.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices fell as concerns over supply from Ukraine eased. Soybean and corn prices rose slightly.
Corn prices rose 1.21%.
Soybean inched 0.24% higher.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal tracked 0.63% lower, while soyoil jumped 3% higher.
Wheat prices grabbed variable gains, as Chicago SRW rose 1.66%, Kansas City HRW bounced 1.92%, and Minneapolis spring wheat picked up 1.09%.
The USDA’s downward revision of world wheat stocks, supported wheat prices. Meanwhile corn and soybeans benefited only slightly from the rebound in wheat, penalized by more than expected US production estimates in the latest WASDE report.
EIA reported ethanol production averaged 1.039m barrels per day for the week that ended 9/8. Stocks were at 21.2 million.
Analysts estimate August’s soy crush will be reported at 167.8 mbu for NOPA members.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 14,626 carloads last week, bringing cumulative totals for 2023 up to 648,518 carloads.
Corn basis bids held steady across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S., but did slide 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat soybean and corn futures.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices fell as concerns over supply from Ukraine eased. Soybean and corn prices rose slightly.
Canada
According to a Statistics Canada survey, based in part on satellite and agro-climatic data:
Canadian 2023 wheat production was pegged at 29.84 MMT.
Canola production was seen at 17.37 MMT.
Oat production was seen at 2.44 MMT.
Barley production was pegged at 7.84 MMT.
Durum output, was pegged at 4.06 MMT.
Canadian 2023 wheat production was pegged at 29.84 MMT.
Canola production was seen at 17.37 MMT.
Oat production was seen at 2.44 MMT.
Barley production was pegged at 7.84 MMT.
Durum output, was pegged at 4.06 MMT.
South America
Brazil
Anec Brazil estimate corn exports will reach 10.7Mt in September.
Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 7.38 MMT in September.
For soymeal, Anec estimated Brazil’s soymeal exports, could reach 2.16 million metric tons this month.
Argentina
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange updated its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat harvest to 15 million metric tons.
Planting of corn and soybeans begins in the coming weeks in Argentina.
The Rosario exchange saw Argentine 2023/24 corn crop at 56 million tons, with a planting area of 8.5 million hectares. For the soybean crop the exchange estimated 17 million hectares, with a production of 48 million tons.
Anec Brazil estimate corn exports will reach 10.7Mt in September.
Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 7.38 MMT in September.
For soymeal, Anec estimated Brazil’s soymeal exports, could reach 2.16 million metric tons this month.
Argentina
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange updated its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat harvest to 15 million metric tons.
Planting of corn and soybeans begins in the coming weeks in Argentina.
The Rosario exchange saw Argentine 2023/24 corn crop at 56 million tons, with a planting area of 8.5 million hectares. For the soybean crop the exchange estimated 17 million hectares, with a production of 48 million tons.
Europe
European wheat rose sharply recovering from a three-month low as supply worries grew after Sep WASDE report showed lower-than-expected global stocks. Further Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, made an additional support.
FranceAgriMer reports that the final quality results from this year’s French soft wheat harvest showed an average protein content of 11.6pc.
FranceAgriMer cut its outlook for French soft wheat exports both outside and within the European Union this season.
German port loadings of wheat exports are modest so far in September.
Consultancy Strategie Grains mad a sharp cut to its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports this season.
The Bulgarian parliament decided not to extend a ban on imports of wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed from Ukraine beyond September 15.
FranceAgriMer reports that the final quality results from this year’s French soft wheat harvest showed an average protein content of 11.6pc.
FranceAgriMer cut its outlook for French soft wheat exports both outside and within the European Union this season.
German port loadings of wheat exports are modest so far in September.
Consultancy Strategie Grains mad a sharp cut to its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports this season.
The Bulgarian parliament decided not to extend a ban on imports of wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed from Ukraine beyond September 15.
Ukraine
Due Russian attacks, the export potential of Ukrainian ports on the Danube River has been reduced by nearly 0.5 million tons of grain a month, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said.
Ukraine exported 783kt of grain in the Sept. 1-13 period, according to the country’s Ag Ministry.
Ukraine exported 783kt of grain in the Sept. 1-13 period, according to the country’s Ag Ministry.
Russia
Russian AgMin confirmed the 2023 grains harvest will reach 130 MMT.
A large grain terminal, as well as a full-fledged merchant fleet, to create logistics for grain trade, between Russia and China.
According to the Russian Grain Union, Cargill is selling 25%+1 share of the KSK grain terminal in Novorossiysk to Delo Group, the terminal’s majority shareholder. Documents have already been submitted to the government commission.
A large grain terminal, as well as a full-fledged merchant fleet, to create logistics for grain trade, between Russia and China.
According to the Russian Grain Union, Cargill is selling 25%+1 share of the KSK grain terminal in Novorossiysk to Delo Group, the terminal’s majority shareholder. Documents have already been submitted to the government commission.
Japan
Japan will slash the price at which it sells imported wheat to domestic flour mills from October by an average 11.1% to reflect lower import prices,the farm ministry said.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices climbed, snapping a seven-session losing streak.
India has no immediate plans to abolish the import duty on wheat, but it will reduce the limit on the amount of stocks that traders and millers can hold, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said.
India will release more wheat stocks into the open market to curb prices during the coming festive season, Chopra added.
India’s edible oil imports in August reached 1.85 million metric tons, with more than 1 million tons of palm oil imported for a second month in a row.
India has no immediate plans to abolish the import duty on wheat, but it will reduce the limit on the amount of stocks that traders and millers can hold, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said.
India will release more wheat stocks into the open market to curb prices during the coming festive season, Chopra added.
India’s edible oil imports in August reached 1.85 million metric tons, with more than 1 million tons of palm oil imported for a second month in a row.
Australia
Harvest has started in earnest this week in Central Queensland. The whole eastern Australian market is positioning itself for a year of drought. Offsetting this are prospects for average or better yields in much of South Australia and Victoria.
Rural Bank’s Australian Agricultural Exports Report 2022-23 has found that export values reached a record high in 2022-23 of $80 billion, with cropping generating 39pc of Australia’s agricultural export value.
Rural Bank’s Australian Agricultural Exports Report 2022-23 has found that export values reached a record high in 2022-23 of $80 billion, with cropping generating 39pc of Australia’s agricultural export value.
Auctions
Corn
Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 30,000 metric tons of feed barley.
Wheat
Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased about 240,000 metric tons of milling wheat expected to be sourced from Russia in the past few weeks.
Bangladesh will reportedly buy 300,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia via a government-to-government arrangement.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 118,490 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
Bangladesh will reportedly buy 300,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia via a government-to-government arrangement.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 118,490 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices dipped, after earlier hitting a 10-month high, as a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories offset expectations of tight crude supply for the rest of the year.
This morning, oil prices rebounded, with Brent crude topping $93 a barrel for the first time this year.
This morning, oil prices rebounded, with Brent crude topping $93 a barrel for the first time this year.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, in London rose, hitting its highest level in more than three months, on gains in larger vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes ended mixed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher after data showing a moderate increase in consumer prices in August cemented expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in September. Meanwhile the Dow Jones posted moderate losses.
This morning, stocks in Asia rose, on news from US August consumer prices report.
This morning, stocks in Asia rose, on news from US August consumer prices report.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose, with the dollar garnering support from stronger-than-expected U.S. Aug CPI report, and by a liquidity demand spurred by the weakness in stocks. Gains however, were limited by lower T-note yields.
This morning, the U.S. dollar slipped to 147.30 Japanese yen from 147.47 yen. The euro rose to $1.0737 from $1.0732.
This morning, the U.S. dollar slipped to 147.30 Japanese yen from 147.47 yen. The euro rose to $1.0737 from $1.0732.
