GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 13, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets ended mostly lower, on Tuesday.
Corn prices shifted 1.9% lower.
Soybean prices lost 1.64%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red, with soymeal futures eroding 1.87% lower, while soyoil was down 0.54%.
Wheat prices rebounded off multiyear lows, with Chicago SRW adding 0.51%, Kansas City HRW gained 0.97%, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 1.6%.
USDA’s monthly WASDE report had corn yield at 173.8 bpa, planted acres were at 94.9 million acres, the harvested area to 87.1 Ma, production at 384.4 million tonnes, and the 2023-24 carryover stock to 56.4 million tonnes. Global corn numbers were for a 314 MMT carryout.
In soybeans, the USDA had yield estimates at 50.1 bu/acre, leading to a production of 112.8 Mt. Stocks were at 6 Mt. Global soybean carryout was at 119.25 MMT.
For wheat, the 2023-2024 US wheat stocks were at 16.8 Mt. World wheat production was seen for Argentina at 16.5Mt, Australia at 26Mt, Canada at 31Mt, the EU at 134Mt, Ukraine at 22.5Mt and Russia at 85Mt. World wheat stocks for 2023-2024 have been revised to 258.6 Mt, while for 2022-2023 were seen at 267.1 Mt.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after trending as much as 15 cents higher at a Nebraska elevator and as much as 20 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after tracking as much as 35 cents higher at an Iowa processor and as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soybean, corn, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts, while were net buyers of CBOT wheat futures.
This morning, Chicago soybeans lost more ground, trading close to a three-week low hit in the last session, while corn eased.
Wheat prices eased after closing higher on Tuesday on tightening global supplies.
Corn prices shifted 1.9% lower.
Soybean prices lost 1.64%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red, with soymeal futures eroding 1.87% lower, while soyoil was down 0.54%.
Wheat prices rebounded off multiyear lows, with Chicago SRW adding 0.51%, Kansas City HRW gained 0.97%, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 1.6%.
USDA’s monthly WASDE report had corn yield at 173.8 bpa, planted acres were at 94.9 million acres, the harvested area to 87.1 Ma, production at 384.4 million tonnes, and the 2023-24 carryover stock to 56.4 million tonnes. Global corn numbers were for a 314 MMT carryout.
In soybeans, the USDA had yield estimates at 50.1 bu/acre, leading to a production of 112.8 Mt. Stocks were at 6 Mt. Global soybean carryout was at 119.25 MMT.
For wheat, the 2023-2024 US wheat stocks were at 16.8 Mt. World wheat production was seen for Argentina at 16.5Mt, Australia at 26Mt, Canada at 31Mt, the EU at 134Mt, Ukraine at 22.5Mt and Russia at 85Mt. World wheat stocks for 2023-2024 have been revised to 258.6 Mt, while for 2022-2023 were seen at 267.1 Mt.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after trending as much as 15 cents higher at a Nebraska elevator and as much as 20 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after tracking as much as 35 cents higher at an Iowa processor and as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soybean, corn, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts, while were net buyers of CBOT wheat futures.
This morning, Chicago soybeans lost more ground, trading close to a three-week low hit in the last session, while corn eased.
Wheat prices eased after closing higher on Tuesday on tightening global supplies.
South America
Brazil
Brazil’s soybean exports should reach 99 million metric tons in 2023, Abiove said.
Abiove’s estimate for soybean output 157.3 million tons.
Abiove saw Brazil’s soybean processing forecast at 53.5 million tons.
Brazil’s soybean exports should reach 99 million metric tons in 2023, Abiove said.
Abiove’s estimate for soybean output 157.3 million tons.
Abiove saw Brazil’s soybean processing forecast at 53.5 million tons.
Europe
European wheat prices extended losses to a three-month low.
European Union soft wheat exports so far in 2023/24 were at 5.84 million metric tons, weekly EU data showed.
EU barley exports totalled 1.81 million tons.
EU maize imports were at 2.95 million tons.
Soybean imports reached 2.52 MMT, soymeal 2.88 MMT, and rapeseed 612k mt.
The EU agriculture commissioner believes the European Commission should extend a temporary ban on Ukraine imports into five neighboring EU states as the measure helped boosting exports outside the bloc.
Poland will reportedly extend its ban on imports of grain from Ukraine after the current European Union restrictions expire on Friday. Hungary has also reiterated that the import restrictions should be extended after 15 Sept until at least the end of the year. Bulgaria should not support the continuation of the emergency measure banning imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine.
The French Ag Ministry upgraded its 2023 wheat crop estimate at 35.14Mt. Barley at 12.17 Mt; corn at 11.22 Mt; durum wheat at 1.27 Mt; rapeseed at 4.3 Mt; and sunflower at 2.08 Mt.
FranceAgriMer saw French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24 at 9.50 million metric tons, while wheat shipments within the EU at 7.54 million tons. French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season were now projected at 2.91 million tons.In a first 2023/24 outlook for maize, FranceAgriMer forecasted ending stocks at 1.65 million tons.
European Union soft wheat exports so far in 2023/24 were at 5.84 million metric tons, weekly EU data showed.
EU barley exports totalled 1.81 million tons.
EU maize imports were at 2.95 million tons.
Soybean imports reached 2.52 MMT, soymeal 2.88 MMT, and rapeseed 612k mt.
The EU agriculture commissioner believes the European Commission should extend a temporary ban on Ukraine imports into five neighboring EU states as the measure helped boosting exports outside the bloc.
Poland will reportedly extend its ban on imports of grain from Ukraine after the current European Union restrictions expire on Friday. Hungary has also reiterated that the import restrictions should be extended after 15 Sept until at least the end of the year. Bulgaria should not support the continuation of the emergency measure banning imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine.
The French Ag Ministry upgraded its 2023 wheat crop estimate at 35.14Mt. Barley at 12.17 Mt; corn at 11.22 Mt; durum wheat at 1.27 Mt; rapeseed at 4.3 Mt; and sunflower at 2.08 Mt.
FranceAgriMer saw French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24 at 9.50 million metric tons, while wheat shipments within the EU at 7.54 million tons. French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season were now projected at 2.91 million tons.In a first 2023/24 outlook for maize, FranceAgriMer forecasted ending stocks at 1.65 million tons.
Ukraine
On the night of September 12, after a break of several days, Russia again attacked the ports of Odesa region. This is the fifth attack since the beginning of September.
Ukrainian agricultural producers sell wheat in the Danube seaports with a loss of 50-60%, a member of the VRU Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy, said.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of September 13, Ukraine exported 5.37 mln tonnes of grains and pulses.
Ukrainian agricultural producers sell wheat in the Danube seaports with a loss of 50-60%, a member of the VRU Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy, said.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of September 13, Ukraine exported 5.37 mln tonnes of grains and pulses.
Russia
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Black Sea grain deal was on hold, and that there had been no progress in restarting it, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
Russian companies have ceased offering fertilizer such as di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) to India at discounted prices due to tightening global supplies.
Russian companies have ceased offering fertilizer such as di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) to India at discounted prices due to tightening global supplies.
China
China’s CASDE estimated 23/24 corn output at 284.9 MMT.
The country’s 2022/23 corn imports are seen at 18.5 MMT.
China’s CASDE put new crop soybean imports at 97.25 MMT.
The country’s 2022/23 soybean imports could reach 99.85 MMT by the end of September.
The country’s 2022/23 corn imports are seen at 18.5 MMT.
China’s CASDE put new crop soybean imports at 97.25 MMT.
The country’s 2022/23 soybean imports could reach 99.85 MMT by the end of September.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices closed down, declining for seven straight sessions.
Australia
Grower wheat and barley bids were largely unchanged. Canola new crop bids continued to soften and pulses were mostly left unchanged.
Auctions
Corn
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.
Wheat
Japan’s MAFF is seeking 118,490t milling wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 40,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada on Tuesday.
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 40,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada on Tuesday.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices surged nearly 2%, to close at their highest levels since November 2022.
This morning, oil rose, firming its ground near a 10-month peak, as the market balanced supply concerns over Libya output and OPEC+ cuts with global macroeconomic headwinds.
This morning, oil rose, firming its ground near a 10-month peak, as the market balanced supply concerns over Libya output and OPEC+ cuts with global macroeconomic headwinds.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London extended gains to a fifth straight session, on firm demand across vessel segments, with panamax hitting its highest since late-April.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes posted moderate losses, as tech stocks fell on weakness in Oracle and Apple, and rising oil prices could compel the Federal Reserve to act again to tame inflation.
This morning, stocks fell in Asia after the slide in technology stocks dragged Wall Street lower, while investors were awaiting U.S. August CPI report, due later in the day.
This morning, stocks fell in Asia after the slide in technology stocks dragged Wall Street lower, while investors were awaiting U.S. August CPI report, due later in the day.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose, ahead of today’s U.S. August consumer price report.
Also, weakness in stocks boosted the liquidity demand for the dollar.
This morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.28 Japanese yen from 147.08 yen late Tuesday. The euro slipped to $1.0739 from $1.0755.
Also, weakness in stocks boosted the liquidity demand for the dollar.
This morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.28 Japanese yen from 147.08 yen late Tuesday. The euro slipped to $1.0739 from $1.0755.
