GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 12, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were mixed but mostly weaker on Monday.
Corn and soybeans benefited from some technical buying, both gaining more than 0.4%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal rose 0.82% higher, while soyoil settled 0.2% lower.
Wheat prices stumbled lower. Chicago SRW lost 1.89%, Kansas City HRW fell 1.13%, Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 0.52%.
The weekly Export Inspections data showed 623,862 MT of corn was exported for the first week of the new MY. The report also had 310,073 MT of soybean and 406,181 MT of wheat shipped.
Separately the USDA confirmed a private export sale of 185k MT of soymeal to the Philippines.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak, with bids fading 5 to 10 cents lower at five other Midwestern locations, while two ethanol plants bucked the overall trend tracking 2 to 20 cents higher.
Soybean basis bids stumbled 25 cents lower at an Illinois processor and dropped 6 cents at an Ohio elevator while firming 15 cents at two other Midwestern processors and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts. Meanwhile, funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat futures contracts.
After the sessions close, USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed 5% of the corn crop was harvested as of 9/10.
Both corn and soybean crop conditions were rated at 52% as “good to excellent”.
The spring wheat harvest was at 87% complete, while winter wheat planting was 7% finished.
This morning, Chicago wheat edged higher, as the market took a breather after dropping to its lowest since late May in the last session.
Soybeans inched lower, while corn was almost flat.
The September WASDE report will be released today and all eyes will be on corn and soybean yield estimates, China demand and production estimates for major wheat exporters.
Corn and soybeans benefited from some technical buying, both gaining more than 0.4%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal rose 0.82% higher, while soyoil settled 0.2% lower.
Wheat prices stumbled lower. Chicago SRW lost 1.89%, Kansas City HRW fell 1.13%, Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 0.52%.
The weekly Export Inspections data showed 623,862 MT of corn was exported for the first week of the new MY. The report also had 310,073 MT of soybean and 406,181 MT of wheat shipped.
Separately the USDA confirmed a private export sale of 185k MT of soymeal to the Philippines.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak, with bids fading 5 to 10 cents lower at five other Midwestern locations, while two ethanol plants bucked the overall trend tracking 2 to 20 cents higher.
Soybean basis bids stumbled 25 cents lower at an Illinois processor and dropped 6 cents at an Ohio elevator while firming 15 cents at two other Midwestern processors and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts. Meanwhile, funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat futures contracts.
After the sessions close, USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed 5% of the corn crop was harvested as of 9/10.
Both corn and soybean crop conditions were rated at 52% as “good to excellent”.
The spring wheat harvest was at 87% complete, while winter wheat planting was 7% finished.
This morning, Chicago wheat edged higher, as the market took a breather after dropping to its lowest since late May in the last session.
Soybeans inched lower, while corn was almost flat.
The September WASDE report will be released today and all eyes will be on corn and soybean yield estimates, China demand and production estimates for major wheat exporters.
South America
Brazil
Brazilian farmers had harvested 93% of the area planted for their second corn crop in the center-south region by Sep. 07, consultancy AgRural said.
Planting for the first crop of the 2023/24 corn season, reached 17% in the center-south region, according to AgRural.
Soybean planting for Brazil’s 2023/24 crop has begun, and AgRural estimated the soybean planting area to reach 45.4 million hectares.
Argentina
Soybean sales in Argentina totaled almost one million metric tons in the last seven days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay have urged Argentina to stop applying tolls for ships and barges carrying grains and other exports, saying it restricts navigation on a key river channel.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 93% of the area planted for their second corn crop in the center-south region by Sep. 07, consultancy AgRural said.
Planting for the first crop of the 2023/24 corn season, reached 17% in the center-south region, according to AgRural.
Soybean planting for Brazil’s 2023/24 crop has begun, and AgRural estimated the soybean planting area to reach 45.4 million hectares.
Argentina
Soybean sales in Argentina totaled almost one million metric tons in the last seven days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay have urged Argentina to stop applying tolls for ships and barges carrying grains and other exports, saying it restricts navigation on a key river channel.
Europe
European wheat prices fell, as continuing competition from Black Sea supplies depressed sentiment.
Corn is also showing a decline, approaching its recent lows in the 2023 harvest.
Both sunflower and rapeseed prices recorded a further decline.
Standard 12% protein wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale at a premium of about 3 euros over the Euronext December contract.
Physical activity is currently reduced with few transactions and an export loading program which remains sluggish at the end of summer.
Operators are waiting to see whether the eastern EU states will approve an extension of the ban on sales of transiting Ukrainian grain exports in their local markets, which expire on Sept. 15.
Corn is also showing a decline, approaching its recent lows in the 2023 harvest.
Both sunflower and rapeseed prices recorded a further decline.
Standard 12% protein wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale at a premium of about 3 euros over the Euronext December contract.
Physical activity is currently reduced with few transactions and an export loading program which remains sluggish at the end of summer.
Operators are waiting to see whether the eastern EU states will approve an extension of the ban on sales of transiting Ukrainian grain exports in their local markets, which expire on Sept. 15.
North Africa
Egypt has imported about 2.140 million tons of wheat during the current fiscal year, GASC said.
Around a quarter of Libya’s eastern city of Derna, was wiped out by floods after a dam burst in a storm, a minister in the administration that controls the east said.
Around a quarter of Libya’s eastern city of Derna, was wiped out by floods after a dam burst in a storm, a minister in the administration that controls the east said.
Middle East
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani said Iraq had a year worth of wheat reserves thanks to a successful agricultural season.
Ukraine
The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS forecasted Ukraine’s maize harvest to reach 32.79 million metric tons, sunflower production could reach 16.65 Mt.
Planting of winter crops is actively underway in Ukraine. Farmers as of Sep 11, have already planted 1,155 thsd ha, including 905,9 thsd ha under winter rapeseed and 249 thsd ha under winter grains.
In the current MY, Ukraine to export at least 50 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds, the Ministry of Economy said.
Planting of winter crops is actively underway in Ukraine. Farmers as of Sep 11, have already planted 1,155 thsd ha, including 905,9 thsd ha under winter rapeseed and 249 thsd ha under winter grains.
In the current MY, Ukraine to export at least 50 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds, the Ministry of Economy said.
Russia
Russian wheat export prices inched lower last week.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, over 108 million tons of grain had already been threshed as of Sept.6, of which 78.7 million tons were wheat.
Russia exported 1.22 million tons of grain last week, according to port data.
Sovecon is expecting Russian wheat exports for Sep to reach 4.9 MMT.
Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 4.6 million hectares, Sovecon said.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, over 108 million tons of grain had already been threshed as of Sept.6, of which 78.7 million tons were wheat.
Russia exported 1.22 million tons of grain last week, according to port data.
Sovecon is expecting Russian wheat exports for Sep to reach 4.9 MMT.
Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 4.6 million hectares, Sovecon said.
Kazakhstan
The total supply of food wheat in Kazakhstan may amount to more than 9.5 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY, according to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
China
The Chinese government suspended CIQ inspections until 11 September, to put pressure on domestic prices, which subsequently fell. This change affected international urea prices, as around half a million metric tons of urea are held up at Chinese ports, some analysts and commercial company said.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices fell for the sixth consecutive day, after data from the MPOB showed an increase in inventories and a decline in exports.
India seeks to rise ethanol blending to 20% as part of the Global Biofuel Alliance discussed at the G-20 summit.
India seeks to rise ethanol blending to 20% as part of the Global Biofuel Alliance discussed at the G-20 summit.
Australia
Australia exported 2,687,824 tonnes of wheat in July, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On bulk exports, Indonesia, China and The Philippines were the three largest-volume destinations. The three largest destinations for containerised wheat exports were China, Taiwan and Thailand.
According to Lachstock Consulting data, China bought a record 6.4 million tonnes of Australian wheat for the marketing year of October 2022 to September 2023.
According to Lachstock Consulting data, China bought a record 6.4 million tonnes of Australian wheat for the marketing year of October 2022 to September 2023.
Auctions
Corn
Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn. Shipment is sought in October and November.
Soymeal
Iran issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 metric tons of soymeal. The grain is for shipment in October or November.
Wheat
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 130,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices eased slightly, but Brent held above the $90 a barrel reached last week for the first time in 10 months.
This morning, oil prices edged up, as investors are looking out for macroeconomic data that could indicate whether interest rates will rise further in the United States and Europe.
Industry data on U.S. crude stocks are expected at 2030 GMT on Tuesday.
August U.S. consumer price index data, are expected for release on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release monthly reports this week.
This morning, oil prices edged up, as investors are looking out for macroeconomic data that could indicate whether interest rates will rise further in the United States and Europe.
Industry data on U.S. crude stocks are expected at 2030 GMT on Tuesday.
August U.S. consumer price index data, are expected for release on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release monthly reports this week.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London rose to its highest level in three weeks supported by higher rates across vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes settled moderately higher, as strength in technology stocks boosted the overall market.
Tesla closed up 10.1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock.
Higher T-note yields limited gains in stocks.
This morning, Asian shares mostly declined, as investors looked ahead to data on U.S. consumer prices set for later in the week.
Tesla closed up 10.1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock.
Higher T-note yields limited gains in stocks.
This morning, Asian shares mostly declined, as investors looked ahead to data on U.S. consumer prices set for later in the week.
Currency trading
The dollar index fell, posting a four-session low, as strength in the yen and yuan undercut the dollar.
BOJ Governor Ueda said Japan’s negative interest rate policy could end by the end of the year.
Chinese credit growth news were better-than-expected.
The PBOC said it would correct one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market whenever needed.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 146.57 Japanese yen from 146.55 yen. The euro cost $1.0740, down from $1.0756.
BOJ Governor Ueda said Japan’s negative interest rate policy could end by the end of the year.
Chinese credit growth news were better-than-expected.
The PBOC said it would correct one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market whenever needed.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 146.57 Japanese yen from 146.55 yen. The euro cost $1.0740, down from $1.0756.
