GRAIN MARKET VIEW
September 1, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets eased slightly lower on Thursday.
Corn prices suffered the minor setback, down 0.16%.
Soybean slumped 1.54% lower.
The rest of the soy complex also tracked lower, as soymeal fell 1.02%, and soyoil tumbled 1.53%.
Wheat prices continued to erode lower with Chicago SRW falling 0.65%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropping 1.84%.
Kansas City HRW rebounded by 1.01% in Sep contract, but was down for other months.
The USDA reported export sales in the week ended Aug. 24 of 344,100 tons of U.S. wheat, 1,073,100 tons of soybeans and 1,063,500 tons or corn (old and new crop years combined).
Separately, the USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to China in the 2023/24 marketing year.
The U.S. soybean crush likely increased in July.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., but did stumble 15 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after dropping 5 to 25 cents lower across half a dozen Midwestern locations.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybean, soymeal, wheat, corn and soyoil futures contracts.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices rose but were still set to end the week lower.
Chicago soybeans and corn also edged higher but headed for weekly losses.
For the month …
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 12.14% in August.
Soybeans were down 1.92%.
CBOT corn lost about 7.24%, the largest monthly fall since June.
Corn prices suffered the minor setback, down 0.16%.
Soybean slumped 1.54% lower.
The rest of the soy complex also tracked lower, as soymeal fell 1.02%, and soyoil tumbled 1.53%.
Wheat prices continued to erode lower with Chicago SRW falling 0.65%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropping 1.84%.
Kansas City HRW rebounded by 1.01% in Sep contract, but was down for other months.
The USDA reported export sales in the week ended Aug. 24 of 344,100 tons of U.S. wheat, 1,073,100 tons of soybeans and 1,063,500 tons or corn (old and new crop years combined).
Separately, the USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to China in the 2023/24 marketing year.
The U.S. soybean crush likely increased in July.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., but did stumble 15 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after dropping 5 to 25 cents lower across half a dozen Midwestern locations.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybean, soymeal, wheat, corn and soyoil futures contracts.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices rose but were still set to end the week lower.
Chicago soybeans and corn also edged higher but headed for weekly losses.
For the month …
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 12.14% in August.
Soybeans were down 1.92%.
CBOT corn lost about 7.24%, the largest monthly fall since June.
Canada
Saskatchewan harvest, as of August 28, 2023 was for one-third complete with 33 per cent of the crop in the bin. Durum was 48% complete.
Common wheat deliveries into the handling system for the week ending August 27, were at 402,8k mt, and durum at 72,1k mt.
Canadian wheat exports for shipping week four came in at 344,4k mt, for a total of 1246,9k mt YTD.
Durum wheat exports were at 45,0k mt, for a total of 147,8k mt YTD.
Commercial stocks stood at 2.012,8k mt for common wheat, and at 313,9k mt for durum.
Common wheat deliveries into the handling system for the week ending August 27, were at 402,8k mt, and durum at 72,1k mt.
Canadian wheat exports for shipping week four came in at 344,4k mt, for a total of 1246,9k mt YTD.
Durum wheat exports were at 45,0k mt, for a total of 147,8k mt YTD.
Commercial stocks stood at 2.012,8k mt for common wheat, and at 313,9k mt for durum.
Central & South America
The Panama Canal Authority is reportedly holding auctions to allow ships to jump the queue to avoid long costly waits.
The Argentine wheat crop has had another hard year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange flagged the likelihood of further cuts as the Pampas growing belt continues to suffer under adverse growing conditions.
Soybean farmer sales in Argentina were mixed in the week ending August 23, while sales of corn and wheat increased.
The Argentine wheat crop has had another hard year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange flagged the likelihood of further cuts as the Pampas growing belt continues to suffer under adverse growing conditions.
Soybean farmer sales in Argentina were mixed in the week ending August 23, while sales of corn and wheat increased.
Europe
European wheat fell to a seven-week low, despite a first sale of French wheat to Egypt in more than a year.
After rain damaged the wheat harvest this summer, increasing volumes of low-quality German feed wheat was being offered in international markets, notably Denmark.
European Union Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski supported the extension of the temporary ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to five EU countries until the end of 2023.
After rain damaged the wheat harvest this summer, increasing volumes of low-quality German feed wheat was being offered in international markets, notably Denmark.
European Union Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski supported the extension of the temporary ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to five EU countries until the end of 2023.
North Africa
Almost 2.7 million tons of wheat were offered in the first round of the GASC tender this week.
Turkey
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has emphasized the importance of reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative, reaffirming Turkey’s determination to contribute to efforts in this direction.
Ukraine
Ukraine started harvesting oilseeds – sunflower seeds and soybeans, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy data.
In the first 15 days of August 2023, Ukrainian ports of the Danube cluster shipped 1.75 mln tonnes of agricultural products and more than 2 mln tonnes in July.
In the first 15 days of August 2023, Ukrainian ports of the Danube cluster shipped 1.75 mln tonnes of agricultural products and more than 2 mln tonnes in July.
Russia
Russia sees no sign that it will receive the guarantees that will allow it to resume grain deal, Foreign Minister Lavrov said.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that he had sent Russia “a set of concrete proposals” to revive the Black Sea grain safe export corridor.
IKAR revised its estimate for Russian wheat crop this year to 91.0 million metric tons (mmt) and said Russia could export 49.5 mmt of wheat in the 2023/24 season.
Saudi Arabia becomes Russia’s top grain buyer in July.
The Russian government approved the decree extending export duties for sunflower oil and oil cake until August 31, 2024, converting it to rubles.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that he had sent Russia “a set of concrete proposals” to revive the Black Sea grain safe export corridor.
IKAR revised its estimate for Russian wheat crop this year to 91.0 million metric tons (mmt) and said Russia could export 49.5 mmt of wheat in the 2023/24 season.
Saudi Arabia becomes Russia’s top grain buyer in July.
The Russian government approved the decree extending export duties for sunflower oil and oil cake until August 31, 2024, converting it to rubles.
China
China bought 110kt SRW, but most reported this as regular business, suggesting there was nothing unusual about it.
China stepped up measures to boost the country’s faltering economy.
China stepped up measures to boost the country’s faltering economy.
South-East Asia
India’s monsoon is off to a slow start with some areas only receiving around 40pc of normal rainfall since the start of June.
Malaysian palm oil rose for three consecutive months in August.
Malaysian palm oil rose for three consecutive months in August.
Australia
Australia is on track to export 31.4Mt of wheat this marketing year.
AUSTRALIA’S three major winter crops (wheat, barley, canola) are expected to yield 48.1 million tonnes (Mt), according to the latest production forecast from IKON Commodities.
The 2023-24 wheat crop’s quality profile remains the big unknown.
AUSTRALIA’S three major winter crops (wheat, barley, canola) are expected to yield 48.1 million tonnes (Mt), according to the latest production forecast from IKON Commodities.
The 2023-24 wheat crop’s quality profile remains the big unknown.
Auctions
Durum wheat and barley
Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of durum wheat and 50,000 tons of animal feed barley in international tenders on Thursday.
The durum was bought in four 25,000 tonne consignments, of which one from trading house Euroagricola at $428.65, and from Casillo three at $426.49, $428.89 and $431.89 all per ton c&f.
The barley was all sold by trading house Grain Flower at $230.00 a ton c&f.
According to a commercial source, Algeria’s OAIC is believed to have purchased 550,000-600,000 tons of durum wheat in tender at estimated prices around $465 to $490 a ton c&f. Further details are expected to arrive later in the day.
The durum was bought in four 25,000 tonne consignments, of which one from trading house Euroagricola at $428.65, and from Casillo three at $426.49, $428.89 and $431.89 all per ton c&f.
The barley was all sold by trading house Grain Flower at $230.00 a ton c&f.
According to a commercial source, Algeria’s OAIC is believed to have purchased 550,000-600,000 tons of durum wheat in tender at estimated prices around $465 to $490 a ton c&f. Further details are expected to arrive later in the day.
Corn
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender for up to 138,000 tons on Thursday.
The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.
The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices saw US crude futures climbing over $2 per barrel.
Brent closed about 1.5% higher for August, while WTI gained 2.2%.
Both benchmarks posted gains for the third straight month in a row.
This morning, oil prices were set to snap a two-week losing streak, rising for a fourth consecutive session.
Brent closed about 1.5% higher for August, while WTI gained 2.2%.
Both benchmarks posted gains for the third straight month in a row.
This morning, oil prices were set to snap a two-week losing streak, rising for a fourth consecutive session.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London edged down, recording its first monthly decline in three months.
Equity markets
US stock indexes closed mixed, in spite saw some support from a fall in U.S. PCE deflector, and from a decline in the 10-year T-note yield.
This morning, Asian stocks edged higher, as China stepped up efforts to support its housing sector and stabilize the yuan.
Investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data out later in the day.
This morning, Asian stocks edged higher, as China stepped up efforts to support its housing sector and stabilize the yuan.
Investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data out later in the day.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose on strong US personal spending report, and despite a decline in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged down to 145.44 Japanese yen from 145.52 yen. The euro cost $1.0845, little changed from $1.0846.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged down to 145.44 Japanese yen from 145.52 yen. The euro cost $1.0845, little changed from $1.0846.
