GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 31, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets closed mixed after testing solid overnight gains, on Wednesday.
Corn prices fell 1.65%.
Soybean eased 0.05% lower.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal rose 0.88%, while soyoil slumped by 1.53% lower.
Wheat prices also were mixed. Chicago SRW showed the most upside, grabbing gains of 1.23%. Kansas City HRW rose 0.66%, while Minneapolis spring wheat lost 0.93%.
Total wheat acres for the upcoming 2023/24 season could rise 5.8%, per the results of the latest Farm Futures grower survey.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River could slow movement of both corn and soybean crops to export terminals.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 13,312 carloads last week.
Ethanol production for the week ending August 25 had a daily average of 1.007 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Stocks were at 21.6 million barrels.
The USDA confirmed private sales of 266,000 metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
Corn basis bids stumbled 17 cents lower at an Iowa processor and dropped 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids shifted 5 to 10 cents lower at two Midwestern processors while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybeans, soyoil, corn and soymeal futures and net buyers of wheat.
This morning, Chicago soybeans were largely flat, corn slightly rose, while wheat eased.
For the month …
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up around 4.1% this month, its biggest monthly gain since February 2022.
CBOT corn lost 5.8% so far this month, the largest monthly fall since June.
Wheat was down more than 9% in August.
Corn prices fell 1.65%.
Soybean eased 0.05% lower.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, as soymeal rose 0.88%, while soyoil slumped by 1.53% lower.
Wheat prices also were mixed. Chicago SRW showed the most upside, grabbing gains of 1.23%. Kansas City HRW rose 0.66%, while Minneapolis spring wheat lost 0.93%.
Total wheat acres for the upcoming 2023/24 season could rise 5.8%, per the results of the latest Farm Futures grower survey.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River could slow movement of both corn and soybean crops to export terminals.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 13,312 carloads last week.
Ethanol production for the week ending August 25 had a daily average of 1.007 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Stocks were at 21.6 million barrels.
The USDA confirmed private sales of 266,000 metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
Corn basis bids stumbled 17 cents lower at an Iowa processor and dropped 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids shifted 5 to 10 cents lower at two Midwestern processors while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybeans, soyoil, corn and soymeal futures and net buyers of wheat.
This morning, Chicago soybeans were largely flat, corn slightly rose, while wheat eased.
For the month …
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up around 4.1% this month, its biggest monthly gain since February 2022.
CBOT corn lost 5.8% so far this month, the largest monthly fall since June.
Wheat was down more than 9% in August.
Canada
The Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, for the week ending 27 August notes that limited rainfall was recorded across most of the province, albeit storms brought heavy precipitation and hail to some isolated areas.
Harvesting of 2023-24 winter wheat progressed to 96pc complete, spring wheat at 32pc and barley at 38pc, canola harvest was 5pc complete.
Crops condition, in the Central region, mostly ranged from fair to good.
Harvesting of 2023-24 winter wheat progressed to 96pc complete, spring wheat at 32pc and barley at 38pc, canola harvest was 5pc complete.
Crops condition, in the Central region, mostly ranged from fair to good.
South America
Brazil
Brazil has issued a waiver for early soybean planting in Mato Grosso, now allowed to begin September 1st.
Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest is seeing some delays as a front has stalled over center Brazil, and is bringing heavy rain accumulations.
Argentina
Argentina’s latest preferential exchange rate for soy exports will be adjusted in September to maintain the preferential rate and encourage sales during the ongoing wicked domestic inflation.
Brazil has issued a waiver for early soybean planting in Mato Grosso, now allowed to begin September 1st.
Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest is seeing some delays as a front has stalled over center Brazil, and is bringing heavy rain accumulations.
Argentina
Argentina’s latest preferential exchange rate for soy exports will be adjusted in September to maintain the preferential rate and encourage sales during the ongoing wicked domestic inflation.
Europe
Updated quality results from the 2023 French soft wheat harvest showed the percentage of the crop meeting protein requirements for milling had dropped, farm office FranceAgriMer said.
European wheat prices rose, on fresh news for French wheat, from the latest international Egyptian tender.
Rapeseed prices fluctuated, but the November contract remained well below €470/t.
European wheat prices rose, on fresh news for French wheat, from the latest international Egyptian tender.
Rapeseed prices fluctuated, but the November contract remained well below €470/t.
North Africa
Drought-hit Morocco is expected to step up its soft wheat imports to 5 million tons in the 2023-2024 season.
Egypt’s GASC received 45 bids in its latest wheat purchase tender, with no fewer than 15 suppliers taking part.
Egypt’s GASC received 45 bids in its latest wheat purchase tender, with no fewer than 15 suppliers taking part.
Middle East
The Oman Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, signed 40 usufructs to carry out food security and wheat production projects in the Governorate of Dhofar.
Ukraine
Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2023/24 July-June season reached 4.34 million metric tons by Aug. 30.
Russia
According to the Rusgrain Union, Russia has harvested more than 105 MMT of grain, so far. Winter sowing has started in 43 regions, and 1.7 MHa have been already sown, with plans to sow 20 MHa.
Russian wheat has lost its competitive edge because of the price floor and the competition with Romania and Bulgaria, Andrey Sizov said.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers would discuss a Russian proposal for an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal this week.
The first import shipment carrying privately procured 55,000 tons of wheat has left Russia for Pakistan.
Russian wheat has lost its competitive edge because of the price floor and the competition with Romania and Bulgaria, Andrey Sizov said.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers would discuss a Russian proposal for an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal this week.
The first import shipment carrying privately procured 55,000 tons of wheat has left Russia for Pakistan.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan exported record wheat volumes in 2022/23 MY.
China
China has bought around 600,000 metric tons of Australian barley since Beijing ended anti-dumping tariffs on the grain earlier this month.
South-East Asia
The Sri Lanka State Minister for Finance, Ranjith Siyambalapitiya said the permit system previously required for the import of wheat flour has been abolished.
Malaysian palm oil prices ended higher, on warm weather amid the high-demand festive season in India.
Malaysian palm oil prices ended higher, on warm weather amid the high-demand festive season in India.
Australia
An unusually dry August has taken a toll on cereal and oilseed crops, with wheat output forecasts revised lower in Australia.
Australian pulses prices, barley gained support, wheat and canola ease.
Australian pulses prices, barley gained support, wheat and canola ease.
Auctions
Wheat
Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Wednesday it bought 240,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 120,000 tons of French wheat and 120,000 tons of Romanian wheat, it added.
Durum wheat
Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
Corn and barley
Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 tons of animal feed barley.
Jordan MIT booked 60k MT of feed barley for the second half Feb 2024 shipment.
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.
Jordan MIT booked 60k MT of feed barley for the second half Feb 2024 shipment.
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices rose after U.S. data showed tighter crude supply.
This morning, oil prices eased after data showed China’s manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth month in a row. Investors also awaited a U.S. personal consumption expenditure report later in the day.
This morning, oil prices eased after data showed China’s manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth month in a row. Investors also awaited a U.S. personal consumption expenditure report later in the day.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London declined, as lower rates for capesizes outweighed gains in smaller vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes posted moderate gains, founding support from weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news on August ADP employment and Q2 GDP.
This morning, Asian stock markets were mostly lower after Japanese factory activity and Chinese service industry growth weakened.
This morning, Asian stock markets were mostly lower after Japanese factory activity and Chinese service industry growth weakened.
Currency trading
The dollar index fell, with the dollar extending this week’s losses down to a 2-week low, on weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news, the strength in stocks, and higher-than-expected August consumer prices in Spain and Germany, which boosted the euro versus the dollar.
This morning, the dollar declined to 145.97 yen from Wednesday’s 146.20 yen. The euro edged down to $1.0919 from $1.0923.
This morning, the dollar declined to 145.97 yen from Wednesday’s 146.20 yen. The euro edged down to $1.0919 from $1.0923.
