GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 30, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets retreated into the red with a re-emerging bearish sentiment, on Tuesday.
Corn prices dropped 1.88%.
Soybean faced double-digit losses, down 0.95%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red, with soymeal ending 1.5% lower, and soyoil down 0.51%.
Wheat faced an even bigger setback, as Chicago SRW tumbled 3.1%, Kansas City HRW dropped 3.12, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.24%.
Chicago wheat prices are down nearly 10% this month.
Soybean prices have risen around 4.5% this month.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his US corn and soybean yields.
A Farm Futures magazine survey of U.S. planting intentions for 2024 found that growers expect to increase plantings of soybeans and wheat while reducing corn.
Private exporters reported to the USDA via mandatory announcement, having sold 246,100 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year, 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Corn basis bids were steady to weak after trending 5 to 20 cents lower across three Midwestern locations.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak across the central U.S. – especially at Midwestern processors, where they stumbled 10 to 40 cents lower across five locations.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade wheat, soybean, corn, soymeal and soyoil.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices inched higher, snapping a four-day run of declines.
Soybean and corn prices stabilized after falling the previous session.
Corn prices dropped 1.88%.
Soybean faced double-digit losses, down 0.95%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red, with soymeal ending 1.5% lower, and soyoil down 0.51%.
Wheat faced an even bigger setback, as Chicago SRW tumbled 3.1%, Kansas City HRW dropped 3.12, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.24%.
Chicago wheat prices are down nearly 10% this month.
Soybean prices have risen around 4.5% this month.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his US corn and soybean yields.
A Farm Futures magazine survey of U.S. planting intentions for 2024 found that growers expect to increase plantings of soybeans and wheat while reducing corn.
Private exporters reported to the USDA via mandatory announcement, having sold 246,100 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year, 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Corn basis bids were steady to weak after trending 5 to 20 cents lower across three Midwestern locations.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak across the central U.S. – especially at Midwestern processors, where they stumbled 10 to 40 cents lower across five locations.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade wheat, soybean, corn, soymeal and soyoil.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices inched higher, snapping a four-day run of declines.
Soybean and corn prices stabilized after falling the previous session.
Canada
Canadian farmers are projected to produce more corn and soybeans, but less wheat, canola, barley and oats, compared with 2022, according to StatCan recent yield model estimates which use satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
Canadian wheat production is forecast to fall by 14.2% from last year to 29.47 mmt.
Canadian spring wheat is predicted to fall by 14.5% to 22.1 million tons.
Canadian durum wheat production is expected to fall 26% at 4.258 mt according to StatCan.
2022 durum production was revised upwards by about 345 kt.
Corn production is forecast at a record 14.73Mt.
Barley production is estimated at 7.92Mt.
Canola production is now estimated by Statscan to be at 17.56 Mt.
Canada’s soybean production is estimated at 6.74Mt.
Canadian wheat production is forecast to fall by 14.2% from last year to 29.47 mmt.
Canadian spring wheat is predicted to fall by 14.5% to 22.1 million tons.
Canadian durum wheat production is expected to fall 26% at 4.258 mt according to StatCan.
2022 durum production was revised upwards by about 345 kt.
Corn production is forecast at a record 14.73Mt.
Barley production is estimated at 7.92Mt.
Canola production is now estimated by Statscan to be at 17.56 Mt.
Canada’s soybean production is estimated at 6.74Mt.
South America
Brazil
Brazilian farmers of staples like soybeans and corn are expected to order more fertilizers in the 2023/2024 cycle.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will reach 9.19 MMT in August.
Brazil’s soybean exports could reach 7.37 million metric tons, according to the Anec.
Soymeal exports could reach 1.93 million metric tons, Anec said.
Argentina
Argentina’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday it has agreed to resume poultry exports to the EU after export halt due to bird flu.
In just 7 months, Argentina surpassed the annual record of soy imports.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, the crush of the oilseed amounts to 11.9 Mt from April to July of this year.
Brazilian farmers of staples like soybeans and corn are expected to order more fertilizers in the 2023/2024 cycle.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will reach 9.19 MMT in August.
Brazil’s soybean exports could reach 7.37 million metric tons, according to the Anec.
Soymeal exports could reach 1.93 million metric tons, Anec said.
Argentina
Argentina’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday it has agreed to resume poultry exports to the EU after export halt due to bird flu.
In just 7 months, Argentina surpassed the annual record of soy imports.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, the crush of the oilseed amounts to 11.9 Mt from April to July of this year.
Europe
European wheat fell to a six-week low.
Standard 12% protein wheat for Hamburg delivery from September onwards was offered for sale at about 4 euros over the Euronext December contract.
Wheat from European Union nations bordering the Black Sea is trading cheaper than rival origins like Russia, raising its relative attractiveness for buyers.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2023/24 season had reached 4.49 million metric tons by Aug. 27.
Romania remained by far the biggest EU soft wheat exporter in the 2023/24 season so far with 1.26 million metric tons shipped.
EU barley exports totalled 1.32 million tons.
EU maize imports were at 2.37 million tons.
Soybean imports had a 10% increase over last year’s pace so far.
Soymeal imports reached 2.32 million metric tons.
Standard 12% protein wheat for Hamburg delivery from September onwards was offered for sale at about 4 euros over the Euronext December contract.
Wheat from European Union nations bordering the Black Sea is trading cheaper than rival origins like Russia, raising its relative attractiveness for buyers.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2023/24 season had reached 4.49 million metric tons by Aug. 27.
Romania remained by far the biggest EU soft wheat exporter in the 2023/24 season so far with 1.26 million metric tons shipped.
EU barley exports totalled 1.32 million tons.
EU maize imports were at 2.37 million tons.
Soybean imports had a 10% increase over last year’s pace so far.
Soymeal imports reached 2.32 million metric tons.
North Africa
Middle and West Delta Flour Mills posted a 26.65% year-on-year (YoY) climb in its net profit after tax for fiscal year (FY) 2022/2023, according to the financial statement filed to the Egyptian Exchange on August 29th.
South Africa
According to South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee total corn output that could reach 16.41 MMT this season.
Ukraine
Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed exportable surplus could total 50 million metric tons.
According to Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry, as at 28 August, 2023-24 cumulative grains exports are at 4.2Mt.
Ukrainian farmers are not expected to reduce the area of winter wheat they sow for the 2024 harvest despite higher logistics costs due to the wartime export crisis, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy said.
According to Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry, as at 28 August, 2023-24 cumulative grains exports are at 4.2Mt.
Ukrainian farmers are not expected to reduce the area of winter wheat they sow for the 2024 harvest despite higher logistics costs due to the wartime export crisis, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy said.
Russia
The domestic wheat market in Russia reversed last week after 10+ weeks of growth, SovEcon said.
The Russian government has extended a temporary ban on the export of canola until 29 February, 2024.
The Russian government has extended a temporary ban on the export of canola until 29 February, 2024.
China
China’s vegetable oil port stocks were at 2.03 million mt by Aug 25.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices recovered, helped by a weaker ringgit.
India is poised for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years.
India is poised for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years.
Australia
Aussie August lineups have ended the month with 2.92Mt of total grain on the stem.
The average vessel wait time for all Australian grain ports improved.
A low number of vessels were anchored and loading, in August.
The average vessel wait time for all Australian grain ports improved.
A low number of vessels were anchored and loading, in August.
Auctions
Wheat
Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is seeking wheat in an international tender for shipment Oct. 5-20 and/or Oct. 25 – Nov. 10 and/or Nov. 15-30.
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased about 55,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased about 55,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
Durum Wheat
OAIC issued a tender to buy 50 000 t or more of durum wheat for shipment October, November, December.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices rallied more than a dollar a barrel as the greenback slid.
This morning, oil prices extended gains on large draw in US crude inventories, and concerns about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
This morning, oil prices extended gains on large draw in US crude inventories, and concerns about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London snapped a six-session long streak of declines, rising by 2.5%.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes rallied, as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news, improved prospects for a pause in Fed rate hikes.
This morning, Asian shares rose, boosted by yesterday Wall Street rally.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.5%, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.1%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.2%.
Currency trading
The dollar index fell, as July JOLTS job openings data and Aug consumer confidence knocked bond yields lower.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 146.21 Japanese yen from 145.87 yen. The euro cost $1.0871, down from $1.0881.
