GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 25, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were lightly mixed but mostly lower on Thursday.
Corn prices faded 0.84% lower.
Soybeans landed moderate gains, up 0.46%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed after soymeal jumped 2.35% higher, while soyoil prices closed 0.92% lower.
Wheat prices incurred mild to moderate losses, as Chicago SRW dropped 1.39%, Kansas City HRW eased 0.26%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1.24%.
The weekly Export Sales report showed 22.7k MT of old crop corn cancellations. New crop bookings were 673.5k MT for the week that ended 8/17. Weekly data had forward bookings at 7.352 MMT. The report also showed 365k MT of old crop soybeans were sold during the week that ended 8/17. USDA also had 1.952 MMT sold for new crop delivery. Old crop total shipments were at 51.52 MMT, and new crop forward commitments at 11.8 MMT. Soymeal bookings were reported at 71k MT for old crop and 202k MT for new crop. In bean oil, the FAS data showed 1,806 MT were sold for 22/23. Total soy oil commitments were 129,843 MT as of 8/17. For wheat, the report showed 406k MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 8/17. Wheat commitments were at 7.175 MMT.
US Pro Farmer crop tour scouts found on Thursday Minnesota’s soybean yield potential fell to the lowest in four years, corn yield was announced at 181.34. Iowa’s corn yield prospects were projected at 182.80 bushels per acre (bpa). The number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Iowa were at an average of 1,190.41 pods.
In this context …
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after trending as much as 5 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant and as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak after tracking 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and 10 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean and soymeal futures, and net sellers of corn, wheat and soyoil futures.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices rose, as hot and dry weather in the United States and other key exporting countries raised the prospect of lower yields.
Soybeans gained ground and were poised for a second straight weekly rise as adverse weather is likely to trim U.S. output.
For the week, soybeans are up almost 2% while corn and wheat are down.
Corn prices faded 0.84% lower.
Soybeans landed moderate gains, up 0.46%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed after soymeal jumped 2.35% higher, while soyoil prices closed 0.92% lower.
Wheat prices incurred mild to moderate losses, as Chicago SRW dropped 1.39%, Kansas City HRW eased 0.26%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1.24%.
The weekly Export Sales report showed 22.7k MT of old crop corn cancellations. New crop bookings were 673.5k MT for the week that ended 8/17. Weekly data had forward bookings at 7.352 MMT. The report also showed 365k MT of old crop soybeans were sold during the week that ended 8/17. USDA also had 1.952 MMT sold for new crop delivery. Old crop total shipments were at 51.52 MMT, and new crop forward commitments at 11.8 MMT. Soymeal bookings were reported at 71k MT for old crop and 202k MT for new crop. In bean oil, the FAS data showed 1,806 MT were sold for 22/23. Total soy oil commitments were 129,843 MT as of 8/17. For wheat, the report showed 406k MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 8/17. Wheat commitments were at 7.175 MMT.
US Pro Farmer crop tour scouts found on Thursday Minnesota’s soybean yield potential fell to the lowest in four years, corn yield was announced at 181.34. Iowa’s corn yield prospects were projected at 182.80 bushels per acre (bpa). The number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Iowa were at an average of 1,190.41 pods.
In this context …
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S., after trending as much as 5 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant and as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak after tracking 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and 10 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean and soymeal futures, and net sellers of corn, wheat and soyoil futures.
This morning, Chicago wheat prices rose, as hot and dry weather in the United States and other key exporting countries raised the prospect of lower yields.
Soybeans gained ground and were poised for a second straight weekly rise as adverse weather is likely to trim U.S. output.
For the week, soybeans are up almost 2% while corn and wheat are down.
Canada
Saskatchewan producers continued to make progress harvesting their crops this week and the province is now 21 per cent completed harvest. Durum harvest is 26% complete as of August 21, 2023.
StatsCan reported 961.7k MT of canola was processed in July – the most since March.
Canada said on Friday it will participate as a third party in the dispute settlement proceedings between the U.S. and Mexico regarding genetically modified (GM) corn in imported tortillas and dough, citing concerns about Mexico’s stance on the matter.
StatsCan reported 961.7k MT of canola was processed in July – the most since March.
Canada said on Friday it will participate as a third party in the dispute settlement proceedings between the U.S. and Mexico regarding genetically modified (GM) corn in imported tortillas and dough, citing concerns about Mexico’s stance on the matter.
South America
Brazil
Brazil is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the world’s top corn exporter.
Some 37% of Brazil’s total corn exports flowed through Barcarena, Itaqui, Itacoatiara and Santarem ports in the first half of 2023, according to Brazil’s crop agency Conab. Just 24% flowed through Santos.
Argentina
Argentina’s current wheat crop needs precipitation in the coming days across key farmland in order to stave off a hit to yields, a weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange showed on Thursday.
Brazil is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the world’s top corn exporter.
Some 37% of Brazil’s total corn exports flowed through Barcarena, Itaqui, Itacoatiara and Santarem ports in the first half of 2023, according to Brazil’s crop agency Conab. Just 24% flowed through Santos.
Argentina
Argentina’s current wheat crop needs precipitation in the coming days across key farmland in order to stave off a hit to yields, a weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange showed on Thursday.
Europe
European wheat prices edged up to a 10-day high.
Rains which affected quality German harvest, may boost feed wheat sales within the EU.
The euro’s current downturn against the dollar is providing support to European grain prices.
The European Commission lowered soft wheat production estimates for the 2023 harvest at 126.1 Mt, barley production was at 48.6 Mt, and corn at 61.7 Mt.
In oilseeds too, the Commission revised rapeseed production slightly downwards to 19.1 Mt, and sunflower at 10.5 Mt.
The Commission kept unchanged its projections for EU soft wheat exports and maize imports in 2023/24, but revised upwards 2022/23 soft wheat exports.
The Commission lowered its forecast for 2023/24 EU soft wheat stocks by 1.1 million tons.
EU rapeseed imports in 2023/24 were kept at 5.8 million tons.
Hungary wants the EU ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain to be extended in the five EU member states bordering Ukraine after the current measure ends on 15 Sept.
Rains which affected quality German harvest, may boost feed wheat sales within the EU.
The euro’s current downturn against the dollar is providing support to European grain prices.
The European Commission lowered soft wheat production estimates for the 2023 harvest at 126.1 Mt, barley production was at 48.6 Mt, and corn at 61.7 Mt.
In oilseeds too, the Commission revised rapeseed production slightly downwards to 19.1 Mt, and sunflower at 10.5 Mt.
The Commission kept unchanged its projections for EU soft wheat exports and maize imports in 2023/24, but revised upwards 2022/23 soft wheat exports.
The Commission lowered its forecast for 2023/24 EU soft wheat stocks by 1.1 million tons.
EU rapeseed imports in 2023/24 were kept at 5.8 million tons.
Hungary wants the EU ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain to be extended in the five EU member states bordering Ukraine after the current measure ends on 15 Sept.
Turkey
Turkey’s central bank on Thursday raised the interest rate to 25 percent, and the Turkish lira jumped by 5.41% against the dollar, and 5.95% against the euro.
Ukraine
Ukrainian farmers have completed the 2023 wheat harvest, threshing 21.94 million metric tons, agriculture ministry data showed on Thursday.
A total of 28.8 million tons of grain had been harvested as of Aug. 24.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of August 25 Ukraine exported 4.032 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, of which 1.758 mln tonnes in August.
Ukrainian officials on Thursday asked Lebanon to bar a Syrian state-owned cargo ship carrying allegedly stolen Ukrainian grain from docking in Lebanon’s Tripoli port, according to the Ukrainian embassy and a diplomatic note.
A total of 28.8 million tons of grain had been harvested as of Aug. 24.
According to the State Customs Service, in 2023/24 MY, as of August 25 Ukraine exported 4.032 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, of which 1.758 mln tonnes in August.
Ukrainian officials on Thursday asked Lebanon to bar a Syrian state-owned cargo ship carrying allegedly stolen Ukrainian grain from docking in Lebanon’s Tripoli port, according to the Ukrainian embassy and a diplomatic note.
Kazakhstan
Kazakh farmers offer to protect the domestic grain market by restricting the import of Russian grain until April 10, 2024.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil futures finished more than 1% higher, snapping a two-day downturn.
Indian authorities need to promptly remove a 40% wheat import tax to facilitate overseas purchases of the grain and calm local prices, the chief of a leading industry body said on Thursday.
Indian authorities need to promptly remove a 40% wheat import tax to facilitate overseas purchases of the grain and calm local prices, the chief of a leading industry body said on Thursday.
Australia
Harvest is expected to start in mid-September in Qld amid some decent crops.
Aussie local markets were largely unchanged yesterday.
New crop canola bids had a little pop from the previous trading day.
After another dry week, the northern feed grain market continued to firm, but prices are likely to ease with more grower selling.
Aussie local markets were largely unchanged yesterday.
New crop canola bids had a little pop from the previous trading day.
After another dry week, the northern feed grain market continued to firm, but prices are likely to ease with more grower selling.
Auctions
Corn
Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Wednesday.
Wheat
Thai importers reportedly purchased 60,000t feed wheat, likely to be sourced from Romania.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association bought an estimated 104,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Friday.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 91,462 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
Egypt’s GASC bought 124,000 tons of vegoils in a tender.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association bought an estimated 104,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Friday.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 91,462 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
Egypt’s GASC bought 124,000 tons of vegoils in a tender.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices closed moderately higher, in a volatile session, amid stronger-than-expected U.S. economic news, demand worries, a strong dollar and a sliding in gasoil stocks in Europe.
Prices, however, are set to fall between 1.2%-2.2%, in a second consecutive week of decline.
Prices, however, are set to fall between 1.2%-2.2%, in a second consecutive week of decline.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London recorded its lowest level in more than eight weeks, as demand fell across vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes tumbled on a sell-off in mega-cap tech stocks.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic news and hawkish Fed comments pushed bond yields higher and sparked a long liquidation in stocks ahead of Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell.
This morning Asian shares mostly fell, discouraged by a Wall Street slump.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 2.0%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.9%; South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.8%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.5%; the Shanghai Composite shed less than 0.1%.
Tokyo inflation eased to 2.9% in August from the previous year.
The consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, rose 2.8% from the previous year.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic news and hawkish Fed comments pushed bond yields higher and sparked a long liquidation in stocks ahead of Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell.
This morning Asian shares mostly fell, discouraged by a Wall Street slump.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 2.0%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.9%; South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.8%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.5%; the Shanghai Composite shed less than 0.1%.
Tokyo inflation eased to 2.9% in August from the previous year.
The consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, rose 2.8% from the previous year.
Currency trading
The dollar index rallied to a 2-1/2 month high, amid better-than-expected U.S. economic news, hawkish Fed comments.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 146.12 Japanese yen from 145.81 yen. The euro cost $1.0792, down from $1.0819.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 146.12 Japanese yen from 145.81 yen. The euro cost $1.0792, down from $1.0819.
