GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 24, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets rebounded on Wednesday.V
Corn prices tracked 2.09% higher.
Soybeans added 0.59%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the green, as soymeal rose 1.65%, and soyoil captured 1.44% gains.
Wheat prices carved out noticeable gains, as Chicago SRW rose 1.79%, Kansas City HRW jumped 2.03%, and Minneapolis spring wheat ended 1.42% higher.
Weather conditions in the Midwest are supporting prices, as high temperatures are stressing both corn and soybean crops, as well spring wheat.
Counts taken as part of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Illinois and Iowa showed potential yields increase from last year. Corn yields reported in Illinois reached 193.72 bu/acre, and in Iowa 184.84 bu/acre. Scouts estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois at an average of 1,270.61.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 1.048 million bpd during the week that ended 8/18. Ethanol stocks declined 3% last week.
USDA announced a private soymeal export sale for 100k MT to unknown destinations via the mandatory reporting system.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 15,796 carloads last week.
In this context …
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., but did trend as much as 3 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and as much as 3 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after drifting 20 to 25 cents lower at two interior river terminals.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn, wheat, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts.
This morning, Chicago wheat rose, gaining for a third consecutive session.
Soybeans and corn also extended their gains.
Soybeans added 0.59%.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the green, as soymeal rose 1.65%, and soyoil captured 1.44% gains.
Wheat prices carved out noticeable gains, as Chicago SRW rose 1.79%, Kansas City HRW jumped 2.03%, and Minneapolis spring wheat ended 1.42% higher.
Weather conditions in the Midwest are supporting prices, as high temperatures are stressing both corn and soybean crops, as well spring wheat.
Counts taken as part of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Illinois and Iowa showed potential yields increase from last year. Corn yields reported in Illinois reached 193.72 bu/acre, and in Iowa 184.84 bu/acre. Scouts estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois at an average of 1,270.61.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 1.048 million bpd during the week that ended 8/18. Ethanol stocks declined 3% last week.
USDA announced a private soymeal export sale for 100k MT to unknown destinations via the mandatory reporting system.
Grain traveling the US railways totaled another 15,796 carloads last week.
In this context …
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., but did trend as much as 3 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and as much as 3 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal.
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft after drifting 20 to 25 cents lower at two interior river terminals.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, corn, wheat, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts.
This morning, Chicago wheat rose, gaining for a third consecutive session.
Soybeans and corn also extended their gains.
Canada
Pre-report estimates for StatsCan corn production had 14.8 MMT on average, for canola 17.4 MMT, for soybean 6.7 MMT.
Traders expect StatsCan to report wheat production at 30.4 MMT, spring wheat at 23.1 MMT and durum at 4.3 MMT.
Traders expect StatsCan to report wheat production at 30.4 MMT, spring wheat at 23.1 MMT and durum at 4.3 MMT.
South America
Argentina
Argentina’s farmlands planted with corn should reach an estimated 7.3 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said.
Dry conditions could delay the crop’s sowing.
Argentina’s farmlands planted with corn should reach an estimated 7.3 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said.
Dry conditions could delay the crop’s sowing.
Europe
Agritel forecast that French soft wheat exports would rise to about 17 million tons in 2023/24, supported by strong sales within the European Union, while non-EU soft wheat shipments would fall.
Initial quality results from this year’s French soft wheat harvest showed 93% of the crop with protein content above the milling requirement of 11%, farm office FranceAgriMer said.
Initial quality results from this year’s French soft wheat harvest showed 93% of the crop with protein content above the milling requirement of 11%, farm office FranceAgriMer said.
Ukraine
Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in a Facebook post that Russian port strike destroyed 13,000 tonnes of grain, bringing the month’s total grain losses to around 270,000 tonnes.
Nibulon said its warehouses in the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa had suffered slight damage during the Tuesday overnight Russian drone attack.
Ukraine is finalizing a scheme with global insurers to cover grain ships travelling to and from its Black Sea ports.
Prolonged heat across many Ukrainian regions has dried the upper soil level, creating unfavorable conditions for the forthcoming winter grain sowing, analysts said.
According to an updated estimate by analysts, rapeseed production in Ukraine may reach a new historical maximum.
EU banning Ukrainian grain caused a drop in domestic prices and a shortage of grain warehouses, the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation said.
Nibulon said its warehouses in the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa had suffered slight damage during the Tuesday overnight Russian drone attack.
Ukraine is finalizing a scheme with global insurers to cover grain ships travelling to and from its Black Sea ports.
Prolonged heat across many Ukrainian regions has dried the upper soil level, creating unfavorable conditions for the forthcoming winter grain sowing, analysts said.
According to an updated estimate by analysts, rapeseed production in Ukraine may reach a new historical maximum.
EU banning Ukrainian grain caused a drop in domestic prices and a shortage of grain warehouses, the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation said.
Russia
The Russian Federation may harvest the second largest wheat crop in history this year.
China
China’s farm ministry on Thursday said large trials of genetically modified corn and soybeans showed “outstanding” results and that application of the technology was completely safe.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices fell to a one-week trough, dragged down by softer rival oils and increased output from South Peninsular palm oil mills.
Malaysia maintained its export tax for crude palm oil for September at 8% and increased its reference price, according to a Malaysian Palm Oil Board circular.
Malaysia maintained its export tax for crude palm oil for September at 8% and increased its reference price, according to a Malaysian Palm Oil Board circular.
Australia
Weekly rainfall totals of 10-25mm (some pockets up to 50mm) for South Australia, Vic and southern NSW were well timed.
Central and northern NSW received patchy totals, mostly less than 10mm and Qld missed out again.
There is some more rain predicted on the longer-range forecast for northern NSW and Qld, but not enough to be a game changer though it will certainly be welcome.
Central and northern NSW received patchy totals, mostly less than 10mm and Qld missed out again.
There is some more rain predicted on the longer-range forecast for northern NSW and Qld, but not enough to be a game changer though it will certainly be welcome.
Auctions
Corn
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal late on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons on Thursday.
Egypt’s state buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities GASC), said on Wednesday it had cancelled an international tender for yellow corn, with high prices as a potential reason.
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons on Thursday.
Egypt’s state buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities GASC), said on Wednesday it had cancelled an international tender for yellow corn, with high prices as a potential reason.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices dipped about 1%.
U.S. gasoline stocks climbed 1.5 million barrels last week.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 18.
Iran’s crude oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September.
This morning oil prices extended losses on disappointing economic data from key economies, while investors awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for clues on interest rates.
U.S. gasoline stocks climbed 1.5 million barrels last week.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 18.
Iran’s crude oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September.
This morning oil prices extended losses on disappointing economic data from key economies, while investors awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for clues on interest rates.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London fell for a fourth straight session, pressured by losses in the larger capesize and panamax vessel segments.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes posted moderate gains, as global bond yields fell on speculation that the Fed and ECB may pause their interest rate hikes.
This morning Asian shares mostly rose: Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 0.9%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%; South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.2%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.1%; the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%.
This morning Asian shares mostly rose: Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 0.9%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%; South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.2%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.1%; the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%.
Currency trading
The dollar index fell with the dollar retreating from a 2-1/2 month high, as the U.S. Aug S&P manufacturing PMI fell more than expected. The rally in stocks also curbed liquidity demand for the dollar.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 145.08 Japanese yen from 144.79 yen.
The euro cost $1.0872, up from $1.0865.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 145.08 Japanese yen from 144.79 yen.
The euro cost $1.0872, up from $1.0865.
