GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 23, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Corn prices shifted 0.59% lower.
Soybeans were down 1.35%, suffering a double-digit setback.
The rest of the soy complex also faced cuts, as soymeal dropped 0.85%, while soyoil tumbled 4.09% lower.
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower, as Chicago SRW added 0.42%, but Kansas City HRW was down 0.13%, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.12%.
Indiana corn yields were projected at 180.89 bushels per acre (bpa), while soybean crop potential in the state was the strongest in five years, scouts of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said on Tuesday evening.
Nebraska corn yield prospects and soybean pod counts are higher than last year, scouts said.
In day 1, the Tour showed the Ohio corn yield at 183.9 bpa. For South Dakota, scouts had an average of 157.4 bpa.
The Ohio soybean pod counted at 1,253 in 9 square foot area, a 7.9% increase over the 3-year average. In South Dakota had an average of 1,013 pods, down 2.6% from the 3-year average.
Losses in corn were muted by a third consecutive day of U.S. corn export sales to Mexico, as the USDA confirmed exceptional sales of 112,000 t for 2024/2025 and 112,000 t for 2025/2026.
Chicago wheat ticked higher amid strong global demand and an unexpected decline in U.S. spring wheat conditions.
In this context …
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. after trending as much as 15 cents higher at a Nebraska processor and as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., but did tilt 5 cents higher at an Indiana processor and 25 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean and wheat futures contracts, and net sellers of CBOT corn, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts.
This morning, Chicago soybean prices lost more ground, while wheat ticked up.
Common wheat deliveries into the handling system were at 149,1k mt, and durum at 24,7k mt.
Canadian wheat exports for shipping week two came in at 362,5k mt, for a two-week (YTD) total of 624,1k mt, 80k mt more than last YTD.
Durum wheat exports for week two were at a small 22,3k mt, for a two-week (YTD) total of 67,1k mt, compared to 88 k mt last YTD.
Commercial stocks stood at 1.884,8k mt for common wheat, and at 236,7k mt for durum.
Abundant soybean supply and deteriorating domestic crush margins have forced Brazilian exporters to offer December shipments to China, triggering stiff competition with the US new crop.
The Brazilian national agricultural agency Conab reported that, as at 19 August, the 2022-23 second (safrinha) maize harvest was 79pc complete.
Brazil’s 2023-24 wheat harvest was 5pc complete.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s corn exports in August would be a year-over-year increase of more than 36%, while soybean exports will have a year-over-year increase of 50%. Anec also expects the country’s soymeal exports to reach 2.1 million metric tons this month.
In Germany, the rain-delayed wheat harvest is expected to be completed later this week if dry, but volumes are expected to fall well below last year’s level, with the country’s 2023 grain crop of all types, may fall to around or under 40 million metric tons.
In France, export activity in wheat remained light, with Morocco providing regular demand so far this season.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union by Aug. 20 is down 21% on last year. Imports were running up 69% from last season.
Barley exports totaled 1.23 million tons.
Corn imports totaled 2.12 million tons.
Soybean imports are tracking fractionally below last year’s pace so far, as well as soymeal imports.
The euro/dollar fell to a 2-month low.
Poland, if necessary, will impose a unilateral ban on the import of Ukrainian grain after September 15, Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said.
The ministry said Ukraine had exported 1.56 million tons of grain in August.
The total volume of grain exports this season included 1.8 million tons of corn, 1.6 million tons of wheat and 0.44 million tons of barley.
Russia targeted Ukrainian ports in the southern Odesa region and the Danube River area in overnight drone attacks, setting at least one grain storage facility on fire, Ukraine’s military and local authorities said on Wednesday.
SovEcon also revised up its 2023-24 wheat crop forecast.
The wheat harvest as of Aug. 17 totaled 63.9 million tons and came from 54% of the total sowing area.
Russia exported 1.24 million tons of grain last week, including 1.15 million tons of wheat port data showed.
Sovecon estimates total Russian wheat exports in August at 5.1 million metric tons.
Russian wheat export prices declined last week.
Indian Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra on Tuesday said there are no plans to import wheat from Russia under any diplomatic deal.
Talking to reporters, he said that are also no plans to restrict non-basmati par boiled rice exports.
Line ups data showed there are 3.08Mt of total grain on the stem for August export.
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal late on Tuesday without issuing an international tender.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 104,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Friday, Aug. 25.
Egypt’s GASC purchased 60,000t Romanian wheat in an international tender yesterday for Oct shipment.
Investors remained focused on the likelihood that China’s economic malaise will keep hobbling crude oil demand, and on U.S. central bank further interest rate hikes to contain inflation.
The Iraqi and Turkish oil ministers have discussed the importance of resuming oil flows after finalising pipeline maintenance.
U.S. crude stocks continued to draw, which dropped by about 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 18.
Shell said it was investigating a possible leak on the Trans Niger oil pipeline.
This morning prices ticked up in Asian trade.
This morning Asian markets were trading mixed.The People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45pc while unexpectedly holding steady the 5-year rate at 4.2pc.
Industrial profits in China fell more than expected.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged down to 145.67 Japanese yen from 145.85 yen. The euro cost $1.0857, up from $1.0848.