GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 11, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets were mostly quiet on Thursday.
All eyes will be on the August WASDE out today, particularly US corn and soybean yields, Canadian production and the USDA’S take on what Black Sea exports will look like.
The average range of estimates for bean yields in today’s WASDE report range between 50.5 and 52.0 bpa (51.3 average).
Yield for corn average out to 175.5 bpa (172.4-178.0 range of expectations).
Expectations for wheat production are for unchanged.
Export sales of soybeans totaled 1.503 million metric tons in the week ended Aug. 3.
Corn export sales of 908,800 metric tons were in line with expectations.
Wheat export sales of 561,200 metric tons topped the high end of forecasts.
In this context …
Corn prices shifted 0.47% higher.
Soybeans prices spilled 0.24% into the red.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, with soymeal climbing 0.56% higher, while soyoil slid slightly lower.
Wheat prices were mixed, as Chicago SRW added 0.43%, Kansas City HRW futures gained 0.72%, while Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 0.34%.
Corn basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations, but did tilt 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., bud did trend 3 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, soymeal and corn futures contracts.
The funds were net even in soyoil and wheat futures.
This morning, soybeans rose as expectations of higher demand for U.S. cargoes underpinned prices, although the market looked poised for a third weekly decline.
Corn and wheat lost ground ahead of a key U.S. supply-demand report due later in the day.
Soybeans are down nearly 1% this week and heading for a third weekly loss, while wheat and corn are largely unchanged.
All eyes will be on the August WASDE out today, particularly US corn and soybean yields, Canadian production and the USDA’S take on what Black Sea exports will look like.
The average range of estimates for bean yields in today’s WASDE report range between 50.5 and 52.0 bpa (51.3 average).
Yield for corn average out to 175.5 bpa (172.4-178.0 range of expectations).
Expectations for wheat production are for unchanged.
Export sales of soybeans totaled 1.503 million metric tons in the week ended Aug. 3.
Corn export sales of 908,800 metric tons were in line with expectations.
Wheat export sales of 561,200 metric tons topped the high end of forecasts.
In this context …
Corn prices shifted 0.47% higher.
Soybeans prices spilled 0.24% into the red.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed, with soymeal climbing 0.56% higher, while soyoil slid slightly lower.
Wheat prices were mixed, as Chicago SRW added 0.43%, Kansas City HRW futures gained 0.72%, while Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 0.34%.
Corn basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations, but did tilt 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S., bud did trend 3 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, soymeal and corn futures contracts.
The funds were net even in soyoil and wheat futures.
This morning, soybeans rose as expectations of higher demand for U.S. cargoes underpinned prices, although the market looked poised for a third weekly decline.
Corn and wheat lost ground ahead of a key U.S. supply-demand report due later in the day.
Soybeans are down nearly 1% this week and heading for a third weekly loss, while wheat and corn are largely unchanged.
Canada
Harvest progress in Saskatchewan, showed durum wheat at 1.8% complete.
South America
Brazil
CONAB has revised up Brazil’s 2022-23 corn crop to 130 million tonnes (Mt), soybean was left unchanged at 154.6Mt.
More exports are expected to result, with corn at 50 MMT, and soybean at 95.64 MMT.
Argentina
Argentina farmers have finished sowing 6 million hectares (14.8 million acres) of wheat, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Sowing for the 2023/24 sunflower crop has begun, estimating area is about 1.95 million hectares.
Corn farmers so far have harvested some 80.9% of the 2022/23 crop.
The Rosario grains exchange anticipated that the country’s 2023/24 corn production will jump 65% higher year-over-year, while soybean production will be more than double.
CONAB has revised up Brazil’s 2022-23 corn crop to 130 million tonnes (Mt), soybean was left unchanged at 154.6Mt.
More exports are expected to result, with corn at 50 MMT, and soybean at 95.64 MMT.
Argentina
Argentina farmers have finished sowing 6 million hectares (14.8 million acres) of wheat, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Sowing for the 2023/24 sunflower crop has begun, estimating area is about 1.95 million hectares.
Corn farmers so far have harvested some 80.9% of the 2022/23 crop.
The Rosario grains exchange anticipated that the country’s 2023/24 corn production will jump 65% higher year-over-year, while soybean production will be more than double.
Europe
Wheat prices on Euronext fell to a near one-week low, on sluggish EU exports, strength in the euro and the easing of fears over the Black Sea.
Strategie Grains have cut their EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 124.7Mt .
In Germany, drier weather forecast for the coming days raised hopes the harvest will accelerate.
US halted import of rare cargo of Polish wheat in Houston.
Strategie Grains have cut their EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 124.7Mt .
In Germany, drier weather forecast for the coming days raised hopes the harvest will accelerate.
US halted import of rare cargo of Polish wheat in Houston.
Turkey
Turkish durum wheat production reached above 4 million mt this year, and probably 1.5 -1.7 million mt will be for export.
Turkish authority have received custom declarations and phyto to export 1.06 million mt of durum wheat, as of July 31, 2023, with Italy booking about 0.5 million mt.
Turkish authority have received custom declarations and phyto to export 1.06 million mt of durum wheat, as of July 31, 2023, with Italy booking about 0.5 million mt.
Ukraine
According to a navigation order from the Ukraine Navy, new temporary traffic routes for civilian vessels to and from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine have been announced.
Ukraine’s grain exports have totalled 2.98 million metric tons so far in the 2023/24 July-June season, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Friday.
Ukraine’s grain exports have totalled 2.98 million metric tons so far in the 2023/24 July-June season, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Friday.
Russia
Russia’s agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev on Thursday said that the country will export 55 million metric tons of grain in 2023, Interfax reported.
China
China floods hit rice and corn crops, triggering food inflation worries.
South-East Asia
Malaysian palm oil prices closed lower on Thursday.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose slightly in July compared the previous month, official data showed.
India rice export ban put market on edge for similar actions by rival suppliers.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose slightly in July compared the previous month, official data showed.
India rice export ban put market on edge for similar actions by rival suppliers.
Australia
Central/northern NSW and Qld are becoming very dry, with crops suffering from heat and moisture stress with above-average daytime temperatures and no rain on the forecast.
There is a more than 95% chance that El Niño conditions will prevail from December 2023 to February 2024.
There is a more than 95% chance that El Niño conditions will prevail from December 2023 to February 2024.
Auctions
Barley
Jordan announced a tender to purchase 120 000 tons of feed barley for shipments January 16 to 31, February 1-14 and February 15-29, 2024.
Closing date is for 16 August 2023.
Closing date is for 16 August 2023.
Milling wheat
ODC Tunisia received financing from EIB to buy 25k soft wheat for food security urgency. Offers to be submitted in Euro/mt.
Closing date 11/8.
Closing date 11/8.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices settled lower, but Brent crude hold close to January highs, as speculation about another U.S. interest rate hike faded following inflation data and OPEC remained positive on the oil demand outlook.
Brent crude fell $1.15, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.40 a barrel while WTI settled down $1.58, or 1.9%, at $82.82.
This morning oil prices fell marginally, as investors weighed optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group, against mixed economic data in China.
Brent crude fell 15 cents to $86.25 a barrel at 05:15 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 13 cents at $82.69 a barrel.
Brent crude fell $1.15, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.40 a barrel while WTI settled down $1.58, or 1.9%, at $82.82.
This morning oil prices fell marginally, as investors weighed optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group, against mixed economic data in China.
Brent crude fell 15 cents to $86.25 a barrel at 05:15 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 13 cents at $82.69 a barrel.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London edged lower on weakness in capesize rates.
Equity markets
On Wall Street, US stock indexes closed slightly higher, as bond yields jumped on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly and supply pressures from this week’s quarterly refunding auctions.
This morning, Asian stock markets declined.
The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.2%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.4%, the Kospi in Seoul declined nearly 0.2%, while Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 sank 0.3%.
New Zealand gained, as did Bangkok, while other Southeast Asian markets declined.
This morning, Asian stock markets declined.
The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.2%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.4%, the Kospi in Seoul declined nearly 0.2%, while Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 sank 0.3%.
New Zealand gained, as did Bangkok, while other Southeast Asian markets declined.
Currency trading
The dollar index rose by +0.05% on yen weakness and higher T-note yields.
This morning, the dollar inched down to 144.70 Japanese yen from 144.72 yen, while the euro held steady at $1.0990.
This morning, the dollar inched down to 144.70 Japanese yen from 144.72 yen, while the euro held steady at $1.0990.
Summer break …
This is the last newsletter before the summer break …
Our activities will resume regularly starting from August 21, 2023.
We wish everyone a happy mid-August holiday … !
Our activities will resume regularly starting from August 21, 2023.
We wish everyone a happy mid-August holiday … !
