GRAIN MARKET VIEW
August 10, 2023 – Market Focus
Good morning, Farmer Family …
Main Markets
USA
US farm markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday.
Corn prices faded 0.98% lower.
Soybeans added 0.13%, soyoil rose 0.36%, while soymeal slumped 1.34%.
Wheat prices stumbled noticeably lower, with Chicago SRW tumbling 3.24%, Kansas City HRW fell 1.17%, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.32%.
Weekly EIA data showed a lower output per day during the week that ended 8/4, and it was the lowest since June 9th, while ethanol stocks increased.
USDA announced a private export sale for 251k MT of new crop beans to China in a mandatory announcement.
Grain traveling the US railways for 2023 reached 575,290 carloads, still 11.8% below last year’s pace so far.
Corn basis bids held steady across most Midwestern locations, but were mixed at several ethanol plants after firming 10 cents at an Indiana facility while tracking as much as 5 cents lower at an Illinois location.
Soybean basis were mostly steady across the central U.S. but did tilt 10 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and tumble 35 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat and soymeal futures contracts, and net buyers of soybean and soyoil futures.
This morning, the most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.4% at $13.13-1/4 a bushel, as of 03:20 GMT, and corn rose 0.3% to $4.95-3/4 a bushel.
Wheat climbed 1% to $6.41-1/4 a bushel.
Corn prices faded 0.98% lower.
Soybeans added 0.13%, soyoil rose 0.36%, while soymeal slumped 1.34%.
Wheat prices stumbled noticeably lower, with Chicago SRW tumbling 3.24%, Kansas City HRW fell 1.17%, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.32%.
Weekly EIA data showed a lower output per day during the week that ended 8/4, and it was the lowest since June 9th, while ethanol stocks increased.
USDA announced a private export sale for 251k MT of new crop beans to China in a mandatory announcement.
Grain traveling the US railways for 2023 reached 575,290 carloads, still 11.8% below last year’s pace so far.
Corn basis bids held steady across most Midwestern locations, but were mixed at several ethanol plants after firming 10 cents at an Indiana facility while tracking as much as 5 cents lower at an Illinois location.
Soybean basis were mostly steady across the central U.S. but did tilt 10 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and tumble 35 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat and soymeal futures contracts, and net buyers of soybean and soyoil futures.
This morning, the most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.4% at $13.13-1/4 a bushel, as of 03:20 GMT, and corn rose 0.3% to $4.95-3/4 a bushel.
Wheat climbed 1% to $6.41-1/4 a bushel.
Canada
Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development Crop Report for the week ending 8 August notes that localized rains were received across the province.
Harvest of winter wheat reached 60% complete.
Spring wheat conditions were little changed, rated mostly fair to good.
Canola conditions ranged from fair to mostly good, while sunflowerseeds remained in good to excellent condition.
Harvest of winter wheat reached 60% complete.
Spring wheat conditions were little changed, rated mostly fair to good.
Canola conditions ranged from fair to mostly good, while sunflowerseeds remained in good to excellent condition.
South America
Argentina
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange issued an upbeat forecast for the 2023/24 soybean and corn harvests, predicting 48 million metric ton for soybeans, and 56 million tons for corn.
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange issued an upbeat forecast for the 2023/24 soybean and corn harvests, predicting 48 million metric ton for soybeans, and 56 million tons for corn.
Europe
September wheat on Paris-based Euronext settled 1% lower.
In Germany, rain continued to delay the wheat harvest.
The quality of the French milling wheat could be affected by the frequent rains and the cool temperatures recorded at the end of July.
Financial investors reduced their net long position in Euronext wheat futures and options last week.
A fire that broke out on Thursday at grain silos in the French port of La Rochelle was under control and had not reached the stored grain, silo operator SICA Atlantique said.
In Germany, rain continued to delay the wheat harvest.
The quality of the French milling wheat could be affected by the frequent rains and the cool temperatures recorded at the end of July.
Financial investors reduced their net long position in Euronext wheat futures and options last week.
A fire that broke out on Thursday at grain silos in the French port of La Rochelle was under control and had not reached the stored grain, silo operator SICA Atlantique said.
Turkey
Turkish President Erdogan said he aims to revive the Black Sea grain deal with an “expanded scope”.
Ukraine
Analyses on Ukrainian wheat already harvested showed a clear deterioration in quality compared previous years, with the Ukrainian Agri Council currently forecasting feed quality to represent about 60% of all wheat production.
Russia
Incorrect [“Starting November, Russia will switch to payments in rubles when exporting agricultural products.”]
Correct “Starting November, a decree established a trade mechanism that allows opening special bank accounts by authorized banks to foreign buyers from friendly countries, with a simplified procedure, to support export transactions of Russian grain and other ag products with settlements in ₽₽₽ through Russian Commodity Exchanges”.
Freight shipping costs in the Egypt tender were up pretty moderately on last week’s tender from Egypt.
Correct “Starting November, a decree established a trade mechanism that allows opening special bank accounts by authorized banks to foreign buyers from friendly countries, with a simplified procedure, to support export transactions of Russian grain and other ag products with settlements in ₽₽₽ through Russian Commodity Exchanges”.
Freight shipping costs in the Egypt tender were up pretty moderately on last week’s tender from Egypt.
China
Continuous rain caused by the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri has affected almost 2% of the sown area in China’s largest grain producing province of Heilongjiang.
The Chinese corporation Xian Ai Rui intends to purchase large volumes of wheat in the North Kazakhstan.
The Chinese corporation Xian Ai Rui intends to purchase large volumes of wheat in the North Kazakhstan.
South-East Asia
Malaysia’s end-July palm oil inventories expanded to their highest level in five months.
India will provide 5 million metric tons of wheat and 2.5 million tons of rice to bulk consumers such as flour millers.
India will provide 5 million metric tons of wheat and 2.5 million tons of rice to bulk consumers such as flour millers.
Australia
Aussie wheat and barley, both new and current crop, saw prices continue to rally yesterday from east to west.
Prices for northern barley are up around $20/t for the week.
Wheat prices rallied on dry conditions.
Prices for northern barley are up around $20/t for the week.
Wheat prices rallied on dry conditions.
Auctions
Corn
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender to buy up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn on Wednesday.
Algeria has issued a tender to buy up to 80k tons of corn from Argentina for August 15-31 shipment. Closing date is August 10, 2023.
Algeria has issued a tender to buy up to 80k tons of corn from Argentina for August 15-31 shipment. Closing date is August 10, 2023.
Milling wheat
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 93,972 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Aug. 15.
Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Aug. 15.
Feed grains
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by November 30 and arrive in Japan by January 25, 2024, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 23.
Macroeconomics
Energy markets
Oil prices hit new high with the global Brent benchmark touching its highest since January after a steep drawdown in U.S. fuel stockpiles.
Notably, Brent crude settled $1.38, or 1.6%, higher at $87.55 a barrel, its highest since Jan. 27.
West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed $1.48, or 1.8%, higher at $84.40, at its highest since November 2022.
This morning oil prices steadied ahead of U.S. inflation data.
Brent crude indeed edged up 14 cents to $87.69 a barrel by 07:57 GMT while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) crept up by 1 cent to $84.5.
Notably, Brent crude settled $1.38, or 1.6%, higher at $87.55 a barrel, its highest since Jan. 27.
West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed $1.48, or 1.8%, higher at $84.40, at its highest since November 2022.
This morning oil prices steadied ahead of U.S. inflation data.
Brent crude indeed edged up 14 cents to $87.69 a barrel by 07:57 GMT while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) crept up by 1 cent to $84.5.
Ocean freight markets
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index in London slightly rose mainly boosted by grain shipments.
Equity markets
US stock indexes closed lower ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI report.
Notably, the S&P 500 fell 31.67, or 0.7%, to 4,467.71, for its sixth drop in seven days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 191.13, or 0.5%, to 35,123.36, and the Nasdaq composite sank 162.31, or 1.2%, to 13,722.02 as Big Tech stocks led the declines. This morning, Asian benchmarks were mixed.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.8% to finish at 32,473.65.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3% to 7,357.40.
South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.3% to 2,596.62.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.2% to 19,208.28, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to 3,253.08.
Notably, the S&P 500 fell 31.67, or 0.7%, to 4,467.71, for its sixth drop in seven days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 191.13, or 0.5%, to 35,123.36, and the Nasdaq composite sank 162.31, or 1.2%, to 13,722.02 as Big Tech stocks led the declines. This morning, Asian benchmarks were mixed.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.8% to finish at 32,473.65.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3% to 7,357.40.
South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.3% to 2,596.62.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.2% to 19,208.28, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to 3,253.08.
Currency trading
The dollar index closed slightly lower as T-note yields declined.
The EUR/USD rose by +0.19%, while the USD/JPY rose by +0.22%.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 143.99 Japanese yen from 143.67 yen. The euro cost $1.0995, inching up from $1.0979.
The EUR/USD rose by +0.19%, while the USD/JPY rose by +0.22%.
This morning, the U.S. dollar edged up to 143.99 Japanese yen from 143.67 yen. The euro cost $1.0995, inching up from $1.0979.
