Good morning Farmer Family …
US farm markets were mostly lower on Friday.
Corn prices settled with fractional losses, around 0.2% down.
Soybeans ended the day with the deferred contracts above the $14/bu mark, while November contracts stayed under that mark, although they closed the end week session 0.4% higher.
Soymeal added another 2.41% to the upside on the day, pushing Dec meal to a weekly gain of $7.50/ton.
Bean oil, meantime, ended the session with 0.71%.
The wheat complex faded, with Chicago SRW contracts going home 1.1% lower, Kansas City HRW closed down by 0.78%.
Minneapolis spring wheat was 0.58% weaker at the bell.
For the week, corn prices slipped later in the week, as December was down 0.51% from last Friday.
Soybeans started out the week with a rough Monday.
Then, the contract climbed back during the week, but was still down 0.56% since the prior Friday.
Product values have been the strong part of the complex for the week, as soymeal was up 1.79% and soy oil was 0.41% higher.
Wheat contracts have fallen sharply for the week.
Chicago SRW, indeed, was down 2.53%, Kansas City HRW was 2.46% lower and Minneapolis spring wheat went 1.72% in the red.
Going inside the numbers, for the week corn prices closed down by $0.035 at $6.81/bu.
Soybean prices finished the week $0.078 weaker at 13.88/bu.
Soymeal gained $7.5/smt, closing at $425.40 smt.
Soy oil rose $0.29, to close at $71.79.
CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices tumbled $0.215 to close at $8.29/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices shedded $0.233, ending at $9.25/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices were $0.165 lower to close at $9.45/bu.
A strong U.S. Dollar continued to weigh on corn and wheat prices, generating worries that the grains are not competitively priced for some international buyers.
A firmer dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive to holders of other currencies.
Confirming this, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported lower-than-expected weekly corn export sales on Thursday.
Chinese purchases of 3.6 million tonnes of U.S. corn as of Oct. 20 are down from 11.9 million and 10.6 million tonnes by the same date in 2021 and 2020, respectively, according to USDA data.
Soybeans, on their parts, were partily supported by a two large export sales reported by USDA on Friday, when private exporters reported having sold 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year and 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2022/2023 marketing year
Grain prices have come under additional pressure in the end week session as much-needed rain improved conditions for 2022/23 corn and wheat crops in drought-hit Argentina.
Rain is also expected in the USA from the Mid-South all through the eastern Corn Belt until Tuesday, with some areas gathering another 1.5” or more during this time, although the Plains should stay completely dry.
NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for most areas west of the Mississippi River between November 4 and November 10, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the Midwest and Plains.
The USDA reported that, as of October 23, 79% of winter wheat was planted, advancing 10 points from prior week and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average.
The emergence of newly planted winter wheat was 49%, 11 points behind the 5-year average of 56%.
A wide swath of the U.S. received above-normal rainfall this week, followed by cooler-than-normal temperatures.
Though the rain was insufficient to show real improvement to the wide-ranging drought conditions, with this new weather forecast, there are more hopes soil moisture will see measurable improvement, especially in the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and Idaho, where rain already halted expansion of dry conditions.
These beneficial rains might be also helpful for the MS River level, though the gauges at St. Louis and Memphis remain near recent deficit levels in the forecast through November 10th.
Meantime, corn basis bids firmed 8 cents at an Ohio elevator and tracked 3 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Soybean basis bids tumbled 43 cents lower at an Ohio elevator, while firming 7 to 20 cents higher at two other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
As for wheat this week, basis was down in both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) except for SRW basis, which was higher.
Gulf basis was pressured by exporter’s efforts to recruit non-routine buyers to the Gulf.
However, a strong corn and bean export program and the low river levels along the Mississippi River created more need for rail freight, a factor keeping SRW firm.
In the PNW, basis fell significantly due to slacking demand across all wheat classes.
The fall in basis this week allowed for more competitive prices, boosting US wheat sales.
Indeed, as at October 27, 2022, FOB prices saw US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) valued at $429/mt (down $8/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was valued at $383/mt (down $4/mt from last week).
Northern Durum offers from the Great Lakes for December 2022 delivery was valued at $11.43/bu, unchanged wk/wk ($420.00/MT).
As for corn, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $367/mt (up $3/mt from last week).
As for soybean, US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $603/mt (down $4 from last week).
USDA reported the cash price for ethanol was mainly 10 to 13 cents higher for the week from $2.37 to $2.50/gal regionally.
Corn oil was seen 2 cents higher from 74 to 78 cents/lb regionally.
DDGS prices were mostly lower from -$5 to -$95/ton, with sales from $205 to $245/ton regionally.
USDA quoted the B100 cash price at $7.13/gal in MN for the week, up by 45 cents.
After the sessions close, the Friday’s CoT report showed managed money corn traders added 14.3k new longs through the week.
Along with their 4.2k new shorts, that grew their net long by 10,113 contracts to 264,347 as of 10/25.
Commercial corn hedgers added 11.6k new shorts and closed 9.5k existing longs for a 21k contract stronger net short of 476,353 contracts – the most since June.
As for soybean, CFTC reported managed money soybean traders were 8,549 contracts more net long through the week that ended 10/25 to 75,411 contracts.
That came via net new buying.
Commercial soybean hedgers reduced their open interest by 75,666 contracts (11%).
That was their largest exposure reduction since June.
More commercial longs were liquidated than shorts through the week for a 22.5k contract stronger net short of 113,354 contracts.
Soymeal spec traders extended their net long by 15,233 contracts to 86,030, but commercials added 23k new shorts during the same time.
In bean oil, managed money firms were net buyers of 20,187 contracts for a 95,161 contract net long.
As for wheat, CFTC’s weekly CoT report showed managed money firms were selling SRW through the week that ended 10/25.
The new shorts extended the group’s net short by 14k contracts to 36,025.
In KC wheat the spec traders were closing longs for a 1,644 contract weaker net long of 24,626 contracts.
Managed money was shown 3,483 contracts net long for MGE wheat, that was a 326 contract weaker net long through the week.
In energy markets, oil prices eased about 1% on Friday.
Chinese cities ramped up COVID-19 curbs on Thursday, sealing up buildings and locking down districts after China registered 1,506 new COVID infections on Oct. 27, the National Health Commission said, up from 1,264 new cases a day earlier.
The International Monetary Fund expects China’s growth to slow to 3.2% this year, a downgrade of 1.2 points from its April projection.
In this context, Brent futures, fell $1.19, or 1.2%, to settle at $95.77 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.18, or 1.3%, to $87.90.
U.S. gasoline futures dropped about 3%, while U.S. diesel futures rose about 5% to their highest since mid June.
However, China’s demand for refined fuel and natural gas was set to grow year-on-year in the fourth quarter in tandem with an expected economic recovery as Beijing rolls out more stimulus policy.
Data on Thursday showed a strong rebound in U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter.
The German economy also grew unexpectedly in the third quarter, data showed on Friday.
In this context, the OPEC is likely to maintain its view world oil demand will rise for another decade.
Also, the market remains wary of the impending deadlines for European purchases of Russian crude.
Thus, for the week, Brent rose about 2% and WTI was up about 3%.
Consequentily, global oil-and-gas giants including Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Equinor posted huge third-quarter profits, feeding criticism from consumer groups in the United States and Europe.
In ocean freigth markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index on Friday marked its worst week since early August, primarily weighed down by weakness in the larger capesize and panamax vessel segments.
The overall index, indeed, fell 78 points, or about 4.8%, to 1,534.
The main index fell 16% for the week, also marking a third consecutive weekly drop.
Particularly, the capesize index fell 78 points, or about 4.5%, to 1,670 and dropped 19.4% in its worst week since late August.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore used in construction, fell $648 to $13,852.
The panamax index shed 83 points, or about 4.4%, to 1,817. It fell 15.3% for the week, also a worst since late August.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, dropped $750 to $16,350.
The supramax index fell 89 points to 1,483.
In equity markets, Wall Street capped another strong week on Friday.
The S&P 500 rose 2.5% or 93.76 points to 3,901.06, and posted its first back-to-back weekly gains since August.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.6% or 828.52 points to 32,861.80, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.9% or 309.78 points to 11,102.45.
Smaller company stocks also gained ground, lifting the Russell 2000 index by 2.3% or 40.60 points to 1,846.92.
For the week, the Nasdaq, notched a 2.2% gain.
The S&P 500 rose 3.95%.
The Dow jumped 5.7%.
The Russell 2000 index rose 6%.
Investors welcomed solid profits from Apple and other companies, thus, technology stocks led the rally.
Apple made even fatter profits than expected.
Its shares rose 7.6%.
Intel jumped 10.7%.
Gilead Sciences soared 12.9%, and T-Mobile US gained 7.4%.
Investors were also encouraged by a report on consumer spending.
Sep U.S. personal income showed the expected rise of +0.4% m/m, while the Sep personal spending report of +0.6% m/m was a bit stronger than expectations of +0.4%.
The Q3 employment cost index rose +1.2%, in line with market expectations.
PCE deflator report was no worse than expectations.
Friday’s Sep PCE deflator report of +0.3% m/m and +6.2% y/y was, indeed, close to market expectations.
The Sep core PCE deflator report of +0.5% m/m and +5.1% y/y was also close to market expectations.
The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
The Sep headline PCE deflator report of +6.2% y/y was unchanged from August and remained 0.8 points below June’s 40-year high of +7.0%.
The Sep core deflator of +5.1% y/y was up from Aug’s +4.9% but remained 0.3 points below the 39-year high of +5.4% posted earlier this year in February and March.
The final-Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index rose by +0.1 point from the preliminary-Oct level, which was stronger than expectations for a -0.2 point downward revision.
The consumer sentiment index has rebounded sharply by a total of +9.9 points in the past four months to October’s 6-month high of 59.9 from June’s record low of 50.0.
However, there was negative news for the housing sector.
Friday’s Sep U.S. pending home sales report of -10.2% m/m and -30.4% y/y was much weaker than expectations of -4.0% m/m and provided another indication that the U.S. real estate market is in the early stages of caving in due to the sharp rise in mortgage rates.
The US economy at its core is resilient, but a the same time inflation is easing and that is what the Fed wants and the market too.
That’s helped fuel hopes on Wall Street for a stop to rate interest increase, by the Federal Reserve.
The widespread expectation, however, is for it to push through another increase that’s triple the usual size next week, before it potentially makes a smaller increase in December.
Thus, the yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.42% from 4.28% late Thursday.
The 10-year yield, which helps set rates for mortgages and many other loans, climbed to 4.01% from 3.93%.
In currency trading, the dollar index on Friday rose by +0.08% to 110.545, founding support from stronger-than-expected U.S. personal spending and consumer sentiment reports.
The dollar also found support from the rise in the 10-year T-note yield.
The yen fell more than 0.8% against the dollar to 147.46, undercut as the BOJ maintained its extraordinarily easy monetary policy, bucking the global trend for interest rate hikes to knock out inflation.
The BOJ, indeed, lefts its interest rate and QE policies unchanged at the 2-day policy meeting that ended on Friday.
For the week, the yen was down around 0.17%.
The euro lifted 0.03% to $0.9965, on Friday.
However it took a more dovish tone after the European Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points, as expected.
For the week, indeed, the euro was up around 0.90%.
The common currency was somewhat supported by German data, which showed that Europe’s biggest economy unexpectedly avoided a recession in the third quarter, while inflation, driven by a painful energy standoff with Russia, surprised to the upside.
Sterling rose against the dollar, adding to gains earlier in the week following the appointment of Rishi Sunak as Britain’s third prime minister in two months.
The pound was up 0.43% at $1.1614, for a weekly rise of around 2.69%.
The greenback was under pressure this week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1-2 policy setting meeting.
The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth-straight time before “pivoting” to a slower pace of rate hikes, which the market has begun pricing in.
However, the more dovish ECB and the Bank of Canada’s smaller-than-expected interest rate hike this week helped drive expectations of a Fed pivot.
In this context, the dollar index, settled down from last week’s 112.17 to close at 110.545.
Going back to analyzing other ag markets …
In Canada, producers’ deliveries of common wheat in week 12 of the shipping season, were at 491,5k mt.
That was slightly firmer from 471,4k posted a week erlier.
Deliveries of durum wheat also increased to 148.2k mt from 124.9k mt a week earlier.
Meantime, Canada exported 533.9k mt of common wheat in week 12 of the shipping season.
That was near the double from 333.1k mt posted a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, also rose at 161.7k mt, down from 130.9k mt a week earlier.
Consequentially, total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.916,3k mt, down from 2.972,2k mt a week earlier.
As for durum, total commercial stocks were at 833,0k mt, slightly down from 834,7k mt posted the prior week.
Cumulative exports for common wheat are now at 2.958,9k mt, still down from 4.203,8k mt year ago to date.
As for durum wheat, cumulative exports reached 739,3k mt, that was higher from 722,0k mt year ago to date.
Cash bids for durum wheat have been slightly weaker this week.
Indeed, looking at an average regional price of $486.09/mt as of Oct. 28, that is $0.33/mt lower than the past week.
Going inside the numbers, as at October 24, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $529.23 per tonne, up C$2.09/t from prior week;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $522.83/t, up C$3.24 wow;
– for the N3 CWRS – $543.85/t, down C$1.92 from prior week.
As at October 24, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) average street price were at C$514.42, rising by C$27.19 week on week.
The export basis West Coast & Central SK, in contrast, moved down from C$88.25 to 61.69 a tonne.
Thus, delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$576.11 (US$ 420.40/t +$0.62 wk/wk).
That represent a C$0.63/t increase from prior week.
Per latest data from European Commission, as at October 26, 2022, Durum wheat – FOB CA St Lawrence (CWAD) was offerd at C$623.35/t, up C$1.22/t week on week.
As at October 28, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street price in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$486.09 43 per tonne, down C$0.33 from prior week.
(1USD=Cnd$1.3605, down from 1.3640 a week earlier).
From South America, as at October 27, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $420, down $2/t from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was down $3/t for the week, closing at $305.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $291, was down $3/t from prior week.
Argentina feed barley, was up $10/t for the week to $330.
Argentina soybean was down $8 at $590.
Brazilian soybean was up $4, finishing the week at $605.
As much-needed rain improved conditions for 2022/23 corn and wheat crops in drought-hit Argentina.
However, Argentina’s core farming region is likely to produce just 1.34 million tonnes of wheat amid a protracted drought, which would mark an 83% drop versus a bumper crop a year earlier, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has warned that the wheat crop could drop further, to 12.5-13.7 MMT.
This is the third consecutive week of steep reduction forecasts by BCR.
If realized, wheat production in Argentina would be down 40%
compared to the all-time high produced last year.
Buenos Aries Grains Exchange, meantime, left their Argentine wheat forecast for 22/23 wheat at 15.2 MMT.
Meantime, BAGE reported 22% of the 22/23 Argentine corn crop was planted.
Parana, the second-largest wheat-producing state in Brazil, will harvest between 3.7 and 3.5 MMT of wheat this season, said Deral, a state agency.
However, analysts said that around half the crop would have quality issues due to late-season rains while 300-400 TMT would be unusable as milling wheat.
Thus, Brazil will need to seek alternative wheat sellers amid Argentina crop failure and internal quality iusses.
United States, Canada and even Russia are possible suppliers.
Meantime, the first ship with recently harvested wheat for export is scheduled to leave the port of Rio Grande on November 25.
The information is from consultancy T&F.
The ship Cemtex Creation will carry 23,000 tons of grain from Rio Grande do Sul to Vietnam.
In the last cycle, this state’s exports totaled 3 million tons.
In 2022/23, most consultants forecast that the volume will reach 2.5 million.
The harvest should be 4.7 million tons, according to the state’s Company for Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (Emater).
In Europe, France’s dismal 2022 corn crop is nearly completely harvested, with progress reaching 96% through Monday, per the county’s FranceAgriMer farm office.
Because of hot, dry conditions throughout the season, this year’s harvest is running 28 days ahead of 2021’s pace and 18 days ahead of the prior five-year average.
On this wake, the European Commission lowered its projection for EU usable production of maize (corn) in 2022/23 to 54.9 million tonnes from 55.5 million a month ago.
This figure is at its lowest since 2007.
Consequentily, expected EU maize imports in the 2022/23 season were increased to 22.0 million tonnes from 21.0 million a month ago, maintaining the prospect of the biggest imports in four years..
For soft wheat, the EU’s most-produced cereal, estimated usable production for 2022/23 was increased slightly, to 127.2 million tonnes from 127.0 million forecast a month ago.
The volume remained below last season’s, despite a 1 million tonne downward revision that put estimated 2021/22 output at 129.1 million tonnes.
Forecast soft wheat stocks at the end of 2022/23 were cut to 13.7 million tonnes from 14.5 million, as the revision to last year’s crop and an increase to projected animal feed demand outweighed the upward adjustment to this year’s crop and a rise in expected imports.
Projected 2022/23 soft wheat exports were kept at 36.0 million tonnes.
In oilseeds, the Commission revised up rapeseed production in 2022/23 by 0.3 million tonnes to 19.6 million, a five-year high, but trimmed expected sunflower seed output by 0.3 10.0 million.
Meantime, per latest data from FranceAgriMer, France’s 2022/23 soft wheat crop is currently being planted, with 63% in the ground through Monday, .
That’s up from 46% a week ago.
France’s new barley crop is now 80% planted, versus 67% in the prior week.
In this context, December wheat prices on Euronext closed the week at 337.5 euros a tonne, down €4.5/t for the week.
December’s European Durum Wheat, settled at €497.00/t, down €10.75/t for the week.
November corn price, was up €2.75/t for the week, closing at 337 euros per ton.
Rapeseed Nov contract closed at €636.50/t, up €5.75/t for the week.
Nov-22 UK wheat feed contract, closed at £264.5/t, down £3/t week on week.
Meantime, as of October 27, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Oct delivery, were at $342/mt, up $5 from prior week.
German wheat, Deposilo Hamburg, was valued at $339.8/t, down $13.25 from prior week.
Baltic wheat, delivery first Vilnius, was quoted $327.85, up $6.35 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (Depo Silo), this week was valued at $498.25/t, up $5.15 from past week.
French durum wheat – delivered La Pallice Spot – July 2022 basis, this week was valued at $463.37/mt, down $0.14 from prior week.
French durum wheat – FOB Port la Nouvelle, this week was n.q..
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued $491.27/t, up $8.03 from prior week.
Corn, delivered Bordeaux Spot – July 2022 basis, was at $335.82 per tonne, up $1.5/t from past week.
Corn FOB Rhin Spot – July 2022 basis, was up $11.33 to $332.83/t.
Feed barley delivered Rouen was at 299.95 $/t, up $10 per tonne.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2022 basis was at $365.72 per tonne, up $5.76/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle – 2022 harvest was at 649.72$/ton, up $26.44 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux – 2022 harvest was up 12.46$ from prior week at $727.46 per tonne.
(Eur/USD = 0.9965 vs last week 0.9862).
From the Black Sea basin, the United Nations on Friday urged parties to a U.N.-brokered deal that allowed a resumption of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports to renew the pact beyond mid-November, saying it was needed to contribute to global food security.
It also called for the full implementation of a related agreement to ensure grain and fertilizer from Russia also reaches global markets.
The United Nations is working to extend the deal for up to a year and smooth the joint inspections of ships by U.N., Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials.
The United Nations recently warned there was a backlog of more than 150 ships.
Russia has criticized the deal, complaining that its own exports were still hindered and not enough Ukraine grain was reaching countries in need.
Russian grain exporters, in contrast, reducing gap with previous season to 5%, “are fully committed to supply their grain to countries in need”, Eduard Zernin said.
Particularly, the Russian grain import growth leaders are, Algeria with a +240%, South Africa with +100%, Sudan with +90%, Saudi Arabia with +80% and Libya with +75%.
“It is an impressive success with the current hidden barriers”, Eduard Zernin added.
Moscow could object to extending the pact on Ukraine’s exports beyond November.
Meantime, the Russian agriculture ministry revised the export tax for wheat, corn and barley.
Particularly, as of Nov. 2, the export duty on wheat will decrease to 2,923.2 from 3,028.0 rubles per ton a week earlier.
The duty on barley, also will decrease to 2,414.3 rubles from 2,524.2 rubles per ton a week earlier.
Ditto for corn, will down to 1,637.3 rubles from 1,909.1 rubles a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through November 08, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $312.7 per ton for wheat ($310.1 a week earlier), $282.5 for barley ($280.50), $264.4 for corn ($266.40).
From South East Asia, an early start of sowing operations by farmers across India will help farmers overcome any negative impact of the heatwave that is being witnessed over the last couple of years following climate change.
At least five per cent of the normal area has been brought under cultivation by farmers across the country in the first month of the rabi season.
Overall, sowing under all rabi crops was reported at 37.75 lakh hectares (lh) as of October 28, up by 39 per cent from the same period a year ago.
The normal acreage under all rabi crops is 633.8 lh.
Indonesia plans to set its crude palm oil reference price at $770.88 per tonne for Nov. 1-15, deputy minister for economic affairs, Musdhalifah Machmud said on Friday, up from the current reference price of $713.89 per tonne.
The planned reference price would put the export tax for the period at $18 per tonne, up from the current $3.
The government has yet to issue the decree stating the Nov. 1-15 reference price.
From Australia, harverst is off to a fitful start in some regions south of Central Queensland (CQ) this week, and even this small amount of new-crop grain has softened the prompt northern market for SFW wheat.
While the sun is out over parts of the northern region now, the forecast for up to 50 millimetres of rain in the coming week over eastern and South Australia means shorts are in the market to cover on barley in the north and SFW in the south.
Trade sources report grain is moving, albeit by the longer-than-normal route in some cases, amid flood-related road and rail closures in New South Wales and Victoria.
The extent and duration of flooding in some districts means some area losses and widespread downgrading is inevitable.
Consumers are therefore waiting for harvest to start in earnest in the hope that it will depress rates for feed-grade wheat before they go big on new-crop coverage.
Meantime, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne for old crops past week were:
Barley Downs: $425, up $25 from Oct 20;
SFW wheat Downs: $425, down $5 from Oct 20;
Sorghum Downs: $415, down $5 from Oct 20;
Barley Melbourne: $405, unchanged from Oct 20;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $465, unchanged from Oct 20;
SFW wheat Melbourne: $455, up $10 from Oct 20.
As for new crops, past week indicative prices for delivery in Jan-Feb were:
Barley Downs: N.Q., on Oct 20 was at $385;
SFW wheat Downs: N.Q., on Oct 20 was at $415;
Sorghum Downs: $390, unchanged Oct 20;
Barley Melbourne: $385, up $10 from Oct 20;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $455 down $5 from Oct 20;
SFW wheat Melbourne: $385, down $5 from Oct 20.
(AUD/USD=> US$0.6413 vs. US$0.6378 prior week).
Other Main News of the Week
Mexico’s agriculture ministry has indicated that the country’s 2014 ban on genetically modified corn would not be amended.
Because of that, Mexico’s U.S. imports could be cut in half when that ban is enacted.
“There are many alternatives to importing non-GMO yellow corn from the United States,” asserted deputy agriculture minister Victor Suarez earlier this week.
Mexico currently exports around 17 MMT of corn annually from the U.S.
Chinese purchases of 3.6 million tonnes of U.S. corn as of Oct. 20 are down from 11.9 million and 10.6 million tonnes by the same date in 2021 and 2020, respectively, according to USDA data.
South Korea purchased 134k mt of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in an international tender that closed on Friday.
The grain is comprised of two consignments that are set for arrival in early to mid February.
China will auction off another 500k MT of its state reserves of imported soybeans on November 11.
China has offered multiple similarly sized sales throughout the year to boost local supplies and quell high prices.
South Korea purchased 120,000 metric tons of soymeal, likely sourced from China or the United States, in a private deal that closed on Friday.
Arrival is expected between March and April.
Pakistan allowed import of urea & wheat through open tenders after its efforts to import G2G deals failed. In addition to approving the tender for import of 380KMT wheat for $373 per ton, ECC authorised TCP to explore import of another 800 k mt.
Watching next week’s market, next week begins on Halloween, with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports.
Monday is also first notice day for November soybean futures and the last trading day for October live cattle.
November begins on Tuesday with the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports.
EIA will release the weekly ethanol production and stocks reports on Wednesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday are also the November FOMC meeting.
A bunch of export data will be released on Thursday via the weekly Export Sales report and monthly Census release.
Finally on Friday, November live cattle serial options will expire.
That’s all, thank you.
We wish you a good day and a good weekend.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi