US farm markets, were mixed but mostly lower to start the week.
Traders, indeed, finished to square their positions ahead of today’s WASDE report released by the USDA.
Consequentially, corn prices were up around 0,47%.
Soybeans, meantime, eroded more than 1% lower, incurring in double-digit losses.
Winter wheat contracts were all down around 0.25%.
October spring wheat contracts inched slightly higher, while december deadline were down.
On macro markets, oil prices fell for the first time in four days on this morning, taking a breather.
Crude oil was fuelled in the past weeks, by a rebound in global demand that is contributing to energy shortages in economies from Europe to Asia.
Thus, Brent crude was down 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $83.39 a barrel at 02:11 GMT, after touching three-year highs on Monday on the way to a 1.5% advance.
U.S. oil also fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.19 a barrel, having gained 1.5% in the previous session, in which it reached the highest in around seven years.
On the financial side, Wall Street’s main indexes ended a choppy session lower on Monday as investors grew nervous ahead of third-quarter earnings reporting season.
A rally in basic material and energy shares on higher oil prices initially had lifted major U.S. stock indices.
But the gains faded amid concerns about earnings, set to kick off with JPMorgan Chase & Co results on Wednesday.
Indeed, JPMorgan shares were down 2.1% and among the biggest drags on the S&P 500, which lost 0.69% to 4,361.19.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meantime, fell 0.72% to 34,496.06, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.64% to 14,486.20.
In this context, on this morning Asian shares dropped while the safe-haven dollar held firm.
Chinese property bond markets crashed again yesterday after more defaults by Evergrande, re-opening the discussion about how big the problem in the property market there is and with what, and when, the government may intervene.
Consequentially, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.9% in early trade.
Australian shares slipped 0.29% while Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid 1.03%.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was 0.75% lower, while the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened down 1.35%.
Coming back on grains market, the United States celebrated the Columbus Day holiday yesterday, limiting trade in Chicago.
Meantime, rains began falling as forecast across the US southern Plains and the southern part of the western Corn Belt.
Eastern Kansas received more than 2 inches.
Forecasts remain for a widespread 1-2″”+ across most of the WCB and much of the ECB.
The October WASDE, to be published tonight, will incorporate last week’s stocks and production figures.
Ahead of this USDA’s report, soybean harvests are estimated to have reached 34% to date against an average of 26% to date.
Analysts expect to see U.S. 2021/22 ending soybean stocks move from 185 million bushels in September up to 300 million bushels.
Analysts also think USDA will raise production estimates to 4.415 billion bushels, assuming average yields of 51.1 bushels per acre across 86.349 million harvested acres.
Consequentially, soybeans fell sharply.
Meantime, more rumours emerged about Chinese purchases of US beans that limited losses and which, if true should appear in flash sales reporting when US government offices reopen.
Corn, in contrast, did not change much.
Particularly market anticipates a cut in US corn production.
So, corn yield estimates will be closely scrutinized, with expectations around 176 bushels per acre.
Harvests are estimated at 29%, meantime, against an average 5 years of 22% to date.
About wheat, analysts expect to see a moderate decline in U.S. wheat stocks, moving from 615 million bushels in September down to 576 million bushels.
In this context, corn basis bids were steady to mixed, moving as much as 5 cents higher at an Illinois processor and as much as 10 cents lower at an Iowa ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were widely mixed at three interior river terminals (tumbling 15 cents at one location while firming 9 cents at two others) and moved 1 to 5 cents higher at three other Midwestern locations.
Happy Thanksgiving to those in Canadian friends.
From South America, Brazil’s 2021/22 corn plantings are at 38% through Oct. 7, up from 33% a week ago and down slightly from last year’s pace of 39%, according to AgRural.
“Excessive humidity” has slowed progress in southern regions, according to the consultancy.
AgRural also estimates the country’s 2021/22 soybean plantings are 10% complete through October 7, versus progress of 3% at the same time last year.
Rains in southern Brazilian wheat areas, meantime, have resulted in some localised, significant sprouting damage.
Markets are still evaluating the overall volume impact.
On European market, rapeseed was corrected heavily.
French rapeseed fell more than 2pc yesterday.
Corn, on the other hand, maintained its bullish streak.
Harvest delays in the Black Sea and in Europe continue to strain the Community market rapidly.
Wheat prices were moderately lower, with December milling wheat down 0.2%.
However, there is some selling interest for Euronext wheat contracts at these levels, so sentiment remains bullish.
European Union wheat exports have surged in the early part of the 2021/22 season as strong importer demand, a falling euro and high Russian prices boost EU shipments.
Latest EU data, indeed, shows exports of common wheat, running 45% above the at 8.1 million tonnes a year earlier, led by Romania, Bulgaria and Germany.
The United Kingdom is expecting a much bigger wheat crop this year, improving 45% from a year ago to reach 14.02 mln tonne.
Abundant rains last fall caused many farmers to switch to spring barley.
Conditions are much more favorable this fall, in contrast.
From the Black Sea basin, corn prices continue to rise in Ukraine, a consequence of both the late harvest and below-expected yields.
Further rains are expected in the coming days, accentuating these delays.
Sovecon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, on Monday cut its 2021 estimates for Ukraine’s corn crop and Russia’s wheat crop.
The company lowered its estimate for Russia’s crop total by 0.1 million tonnes to 75.5 million tonnes and cut its Ukraine corn crop forecast by 1.2 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes.
Consequentially, also wheat prices continued to increase throughout the Black Sea basin.
This does not prevent exports from remaining strong, even if per latest data showed Russian wheat exports were down 27% since the start of the season on July 1.
In fact the government is considering the implementation of export quotas for the beginning of next year.
Russia, however, should still be aggressive in its offers against Egypt’s tender.
Winter wheat plantings , meantime, are still late for the time being compared to last year.
From Australia, markets were a buck or two firmer for barley but largely unchanged for wheat yesterday.
Canola slipped by $5-10/t.
Old crop grain remains firm with spot demand bid up as consumers run hand to mouth in front of the new harvest.
On the international scene, Egypt is launching a tender for wheat for loading between November 23 and December 3 with payment at 180 days.
Jordan, for its part, is purchasing 120,000 t of feed barley.
We wish you a good day.